The Miami Heat didn't necessarily have the start to the 2022-23 season that they were hoping for, but as we exit the All-Star break, it's clear that they are on the verge of becoming one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. With a 32-27 record, the Heat sit in seventh place in the East right now, but they should be expected to go on a run up the standings before the end of the season.

Once again, the Heat have a strong rotation led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo that have exceeded expectations. Things haven't been as easy for them this season, as they have struggled with injuries, regression to the mean, and a front office that seemingly doesn't want to make any moves. And despite that all, they are in a good spot as we enter the homestretch of the season.

Miami is certainly not a perfect team, and they have some notable flaws that they will have to overcome if they want to become a true title contender this season. Let's pick out the biggest flaw that has plagued this team all throughout the season and see why it's an issue that could end up destroying their title hopes this season.

Heat fatal flaw: Three-point shooting

Throughout the Heat's recent stretch of unexpected success, their calling card has always been their defense. Miami has never had a strong offensive squad, but they were able to rely on their strong defense to prevent their opponent from scoring, while also creating fastbreak scoring opportunities, to help them win games.

It's been a lot tougher to accomplish that this season for a couple of reasons. For the most part, this Heat team is still the same; they can defend with the best of them, as their 111.2 defensive rating is the fifth best mark in the league, but their offense struggles to score. This season, those struggles have been more glaring than usual due to the team's woeful three-point shooting.

As a team, the Heat's 33.4 three-point shooting percentage is 28th in the league, which is abysmal. They have just one player hitting 40 percent of their threes this season, and that's Jamaree Bouyea, who has played in just four games. And it's clear that if this trend doesn't change, the Heat could be in trouble.

Miami has some decent sharpshooters on their roster, with Tyler Herro being the best of the bunch, but there's been a lot of regression from the team we saw last season. It's almost incredible to see how many of these guys are shooting worse than they were last season, so rather than explain it, let's just take a look at the numbers.

  • Victor Oladipo: 41.7% to 29.6% (-12.1%)
  • Max Strus: 41% to 33.8% (-7.2%)
  • Caleb Martin: 41.3% to 36.1% (-5.2%)
  • Kyle Lowry: 37.7% to 33.3% (4.4%)
  • Duncan Robinson: 37.2% to 32.9% (-4.3%)
  • Gabe Vincent: 36.8% to 32.9% (-3.9%)
  • Tyler Herro: 39.9% to 36.9% (-3%)

Now obviously there are some exceptions here, as Oladipo played just eight regular season games last season, but for the most part, the numbers paint an accurate picture, and it isn't a pretty one. Guys like Strus, Martin, and Robinson were part of what made the Heat so deadly, because if you left them open for a split second, it was enough for them to kill you. That just hasn't been the case this season.

The Heat missed a great opportunity to add a sharpshooter to their team at the trade deadline, which seems like a pretty big mistake. You can't ignore statistical trends because of prior production; we are 59 games into the season, so for the most part, we know who teams are and what they do and don't do well. The Heat don't shoot the ball well by any stretch of the imagination.

You could argue that things will balance out, but it feels like the decrease in shooting we are seeing is the result of things evening out. Of the players on this list, four of them set career-highs in three point percentage last season, and it could technically be five if you ignore Martin's 18-game rookie season. The Heat were shooting unexpectedly good last season, and they have come crashing back down to earth this season.

Adding Kevin Love on the buyout market could help remedy this issue to an extent, and he fills a big need in the frontcourt behind Adebayo, but his 35.4 three-point percentage isn't exactly great, even though it looks good by the Heat's standards. He still has value, but he's not going to be this team's savior.

The Heat's three-point shooting is abysmal, and while they are holding their own in the regular season, if something doesn't change soon, they aren't going to be able to make it very far in the playoffs. Miami always seems to find a way to make things work, but this may be too big of an issue for them to overcome, so don't be surprised to see the Heat crash out of the playoffs early if they can't find their stroke from behind the arc.