Coming off a 4-13 season, the Houston Texans will attempt to turn the page and move forward in 2022. They'll look to close out an undefeated preseason slate on Thursday at home against the San Francisco 49ers, before kicking off their 2022 campaign with an AFC South showdown against the Indianapolis Colts on Sept. 11. With that said, now is the perfect time to check out FanDuel’s 2022 NFL over/under win total odds, including the Texans’ over/under win total prediction.
Perhaps the biggest difference from last year is the fact that the Texans no longer have the uncertainty of Deshaun Watson's future looming over the franchise like a dark cloud. They dealt the three-time Pro Bowler — who will be suspended for the first 11 games of the season — to the Cleveland Browns for a bevy of draft picks, and have at least temporarily handed the reins of the offense to second-year quarterback Davis Mills. Houston also hired Lovie Smith as head coach this offseason following the firing of David Culley.
Here are the 2022 NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2022 NFL Odds: Texans Over/Under Win Total Odds
Houston Texans:
Over: 4.5 (-110)
Under: 4.5 (-110)
Why The Texans Will Win Five Games
Houston's ability to cover the over on its 2022 win total seems to hinge on the play of Mills — who outside of the New England Patriots' Mac Jones, had arguably the best season of any rookie quarterback last year.
Mills' NFL career got off to a rough start, completing less than 57% of his passes while throwing for 357 yards, two touchdowns, and five interceptions in his first three appearances as a pro. His performance picked up significantly down the stretch, though, throwing for 2,258 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions on 70% passing over his last nine starts. He's followed this up with a decent preseason, completing 13 of 20 passes for 110 yards and a 95.8 quarterback rating in two games so far, with an 18-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins with one second left in the first half proving pivotal in a 24-20 win over the Los Angeles Rams last Friday night.
On the other side of the ball, the cornerback position has the potential to be a strength after a poor showing in 2021. Desmond King, who was a first-team All-Pro cornerback and second-team All-Pro returner as a second-year player with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2018, bounced back from a rocky couple of years in his first season with the Texans last fall. In 2021, King recorded a career-high 93 tackles to go along with three interceptions, six passes defended, and one forced fumble. Houston also signed veteran corner Steven Nelson to a two-year deal this offseason, while selecting two-time first-team All-SEC honoree and 2019 consensus All-American Derek Stingley Jr. with the third pick in the NFL Draft.
Why The Texans Won't Win Five Games
For Mills to have a successful sophomore season, he will need to find a way to stay upright. And with an offensive line that was third-to-last in the NFL in Pro Football Focus' final 2021 rankings, this will be easier said than done. Despite giving up 44 sacks last season, though, the greatest concern came in the run game. Houston ranked dead-last in the league in rushing yards and yards per carry, with its eight rushing touchdowns tying the New York Giants for the fewest in the NFL. There should be some improvement in this department with a healthy Laremy Tunsil in the mix, as well as the additions of veteran A.J. Cann and first-round pick Kenyon Green, but the position group still has a ways to go in terms of being a unit that can be consistently relied on.
The run game could also be a problem on defense, with the Texans ranking second-to-last in the league last year with 142.2 rushing yards allowed per game. This especially doesn't bode well when considering they have to face two of the NFL's top running backs — Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry — twice each. The addition of Ogbonnia Okoronkwo and resigning of Maliek Collins on the defensive line seem to hint at Houston getting better up front, but the linebacker corps remains a significant question heading into the season.
Final Texans Win Total Prediction
While the Texans' strength of schedule varies, depending on whether last year's records or the upcoming season's projected win totals are being used, it seems to be a consensus that their division should be among the weakest in the league. The AFC South was sixth out of eight divisions in NFL.com's recent rankings, with three of Houston's four wins last season coming against division opponents.
The Colts are the clearcut favorite after adding Matt Ryan at quarterback, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are still young and the Tennessee Titans shipped off top receiver A.J. Brown during the offseason. Watson showed plenty of rust in his only preseason action with the Browns, completing one of five attempts for seven yards, and his first game back from suspension is set to take place in front of what will undoubtedly be an energized Houston crowd. With games against the Chicago Bears, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders also on the schedule, the Texans should have ample opportunity to reach the five-win mark.
Final Texans Win Total Prediction: Over 4.5 (-110)
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