The 2023 FIBA World Cup is upon us as Day 3 of the group stages takes place on Sunday, August 27th. With that said, it is once again time for our 2023 FIBA World Cup odds series with an Italy-Dominican Republic prediction and pick.

Italy sputtered against Angola to kick off the 2023 FIBA World Cup, but they eventually recovered in the second half and dominated their Group A opponents on day one. Simone Fontecchio led the Italians with 19 points, five rebounds, and two assists while shooting 8-of-14 overall from the field. Stefano Tonut also had a strong outing with 18 points on 5-of-8 shooting. The 29-year-old made most of his damage from the foul line, where he went 8-of-8.

Meanwhile, the Dominican Republic also had to work hard to stave off a Philippines team that was playing inspired in front of a record crowd of 38,115 at the Philippine Arena. Karl-Anthony Towns led the way with 26 points, though on just 5-of-16 field goal shooting. The Minnesota Timberwolves star scored the majority of his points at the free throw line, where he made 15-of-16. Victor Liz also had a strong outing with 18 points on 7-of-12 shooting, while Andres Feliz had 12 points, six rebounds, and eight assists.

Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2023 FIBA World Cup Odds: Italy-Dominican Republic Odds

Italy: -5.5 (-122)

Dominican Republic: +5.5 (-104)

Over: 169.5 (-115)

Under: 169.5 (-111)

How to Watch Italy vs. Dominican Republic 

TV: ESPN+

Stream: Watch ESPN

Time: 4:30 AM ET/ 1:30 AM PT

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Italy Will Cover The Spread

The Italians enter this game as 5.5-point favorites even though the Dominicans have the best player among both teams. Italy still ranks 10th in the FIBA World Rankings. They went 8-2 in the qualifiers, tying Spain in their group. They also averaged the most points (88.1) during the qualifiers. However, that offense did not come through for Italy in the first game as they shot just 41.7 percent from the field. They were even worse from beyond the arc as they made just 5-of-31 from three.

Italy's coach Gianmarco Pozzecco did admit he put his team under a lot of stress due to their subpar first half against Angola. And Nicolo Melli noted how they definitely had the nerves to begin the tournament. With that out of the way, they should be able to handle stiffer competition.

The schedule seemed to work perfectly for Italy as they got their feel-out game out of the way against the weakest team in their group. Now, they move on to perhaps their toughest competition in the group.

Italy should once again rely on Utah Jazz forward Simone Fontecchio to lead the way on the offensive end. Fontecchio was one of the few bright spots offensively for Italy against Angola. He had 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting, but he did just convert 1-of-6 from beyond the arc. If the shots from the outside start falling, Italy should be able to take care of business and even cover the spread.

Why Dominican Republic Will Cover The Spread

As for the Dominican Republic, they enter as underdogs despite having the best player on the floor. Karl-Anthony Towns should be able to utilize his large frame and his athleticism against the Italians, much like he did versus the Philippines, Towns had his way inside the paint and drew a ton of fouls from the Filipino big men. KAT wound up with 26 points, 15 of which came from the charity stripe.

But Towns wasn't the only bright spot for the Dominicans. Victor Liz and Andres Feliz also played well to keep the Philippines at bay. Those two knocked down some huge shots throughout the game, especially from beyond the arc. They only made a couple of threes each, but those were timely triples that either helped them stay within striking distance of the Philippines or extended their lead in the fourth quarter. Liz and Feliz should continue to build off their solid first games at the World Cup and play even better as they take on the 10th-ranked Italy on Sunday.

One missing factor for the Dominicans was Lester Quinones. The Golden State Warriors two-way guard had a forgettable FIBA World Cup debut as he went scoreless and all of his four attempts from the field. Look for Quinones to be more aggressive as he tries to assert himself more in this tournament.

Final Italy-Dominican Republic Prediction & Pick

I might have to go with the Dominican Republic for this one. Karl-Anthony Towns will be the best player on the floor for this game and the Dominicans have enough support for KAT to help him pull off their second win in the tournament. Lester Quinones also had a poor debut, so he should be motivated to play better on Sunday.

Final Italy-Dominican Republic Prediction & Pick: Dominican Republic: +5.5 (-104)