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UFC 318: Dustin Poirier versus Max Holloway continues on the prelims with a fight between Kyler Phillips and Vinicius Oliveira in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Phillips-Oliveira prediction and pick.
Kyler Phillips (12-4) returns at UFC 318 after a tough decision loss to Rob Font snapped his winning streak last fall. Previously, Phillips impressed with three straight wins over Pedro Munhoz, Raoni Barcelos, and Marcelo Rojo. Now, “The Matrix” seeks redemption against Vinicius Oliveira this Saturday in New Orleans.
Vinicius Oliveira (22-3) comes into UFC 318 riding momentum from back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Said Nurmagomedov and Ricky Simon, proving he's more than just a knockout threat. Prior to that, Oliveira made a statement with a flying knee knockout of Bernardo Sopaj. Now, “LokDog” looks to break into the bantamweight elite against Kyler Phillips this Saturday in New Orleans.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 odds: Kyler Phillips-Vinicius Oliveira odds
Kyler Phillips: +124
Vinicius Oliveira: -148
Over 2.5 rounds: -230
Under 2.5 rounds: +175
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Why Kyler Phillips will win
- Last Fight: (L) Rob Font – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 (5 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Kyler Phillips has all the tools to outwork Vinicius Oliveira at UFC 318. His diverse striking, featuring crisp combinations, stinging leg kicks, and creative angles, has repeatedly troubled ranked opponents. With a significant output of 5.28 significant strikes per minute, Phillips is used to pushing a high pace while limiting damage with a 60% striking defense rate.
His grappling and wrestling prowess shouldn’t be overlooked either. Phillips lands an average of 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 51% accuracy and 75% takedown defense, making him one of bantamweight’s most well-rounded threats. Against Oliveira, who can be a bit wild and open to counters during pressure exchanges, Phillips’ slick timing and level changes could present frequent opportunities to either dictate position or threaten with submissions.
Oliveira is dangerous early, but Phillips has faced explosive punchers and gritted out close, high-level wins before—most notably against Song Yadong and Pedro Munhoz. If Phillips can mix up his attacks and keep Oliveira guessing, he should seize momentum in the later rounds as Oliveira tires.
Combining superior fight IQ, cardio, and technical versatility, Phillips is poised to exploit defensive lapses and control the tempo, ultimately earning a decision or late finish to reaffirm his position among bantamweight contenders.
Why Vinicius Oliveira will win
- Last Fight: (W) Said Nurmagomedov – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 18 (16 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Vinicius Oliveira arrives at UFC 318 with dynamic finishing ability and a rapidly evolving skill set. Possessing 16 career knockouts and back-to-back decision wins over strong contenders like Ricky Simon and Said Nurmagomedov, Oliveira has showcased he’s more than a one-dimensional striker. His switch-hitting style and high offensive output keep opponents guessing, allowing him to capitalize as soon as defensive gaps appear.
Oliveira’s striking arsenal includes sharp knees, creative kicks, and crisp boxing, which matches well against Kyler Phillips’ unpredictable movement. He absorbs significantly less damage per minute (2.77 versus Phillips’ 3.47), meaning he’s adept at protecting himself while consistently pressing forward. Against Phillips, who sometimes fades in the later rounds, Oliveira’s pressure and pace could be the difference-maker, especially if he turns the bout into an attritional battle.
Where Phillips excels with takedowns and movement, Oliveira’s underrated takedown defense (76%) and aggressive counters reduce those threats and can punish overextensions. His ability to maintain composure and sustain high volume throughout three rounds has proven successful against ranked competition. If Oliveira pushes the pace, maintains defensive discipline, and maintains pressure, he’s primed to outwork Phillips and announce himself as a legitimate contender in the bantamweight division.
Final Kyler Phillips-Vinicius Oliveira prediction & pick
Heading into UFC 318, the bantamweight clash between Kyler Phillips and Vinicius Oliveira shapes up as one of the card’s most competitive matchups. Phillips, known for his high-paced combinations and versatile grappling, will try to dictate the tempo with creative striking and seamless transitions. His ability to mix up attacks has proven challenging for many bantamweights.
Oliveira, however, comes in on a strong run, having showcased improved durability and a more tactical approach while maintaining dangerous finishing skills. His striking is crisp and effective, and his recent victories over top competition speak volumes about his progress and confidence. If he can keep the fight standing and maintain pressure, his power and volume could turn the tide.
Expect a back-and-forth battle with both men seizing momentum at various points. Ultimately, Oliveira's consistency, improved defense, and well-rounded game should help him edge out a close decision and make his case as a true contender in the division.
Final Kyler Phillips-Vinicius Oliveira Prediction & Pick: Vinicius Oliveira (-148), Over 2.5 Rounds (-230)
