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UFC 318: Dustin Poirier versus Max Holloway continues on the prelims with a fight between Francisco Prado and Nikolay Veretennikov in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Prado-Veretennikov prediction and pick.
Francisco Prado (12-3) enters UFC 318 hoping to snap a two-fight skid after dropping back-to-back unanimous decisions to Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber. Previously, Prado made waves with a stunning first-round TKO of Ottman Azaitar. Now, the Argentine looks to rebound by toppling Nikolay Veretennikov this Saturday in New Orleans.
Nikolay Veretennikov (12-6) looks to rebound at UFC 318 after a tough TKO loss to Austin Vanderford in the second round of his last fight. Previously, Veretennikov dropped a razor-close split decision to Danny Barlow. Now, he looks to halt his two-fight skid against Francisco Prado this Saturday in New Orleans.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 odds: Francisco Prado-Nikolay Veretennikov odds
Francisco Prado: -148
Nikolay Veretennikov: +124
Over 2.5 rounds: -175
Under 2.5 rounds: +135
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Why Francisco Prado will win
- Last Fight: (L) Jake Matthews – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 12 (6 KO/TKO/6 SUB)
Francisco Prado’s path to victory over Nikolay Veretennikov at UFC 318 centers on youthful aggression and finishing instincts. At just 22, Prado has proven he can overwhelm opponents early, boasting a remarkable nine first-round stoppages split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
His balanced arsenal allows him to threaten in every phase, exploiting any lapse from Veretennikov with explosive counters or opportunistic grappling.
Prado’s pace and cardio are significant assets. He’s shown he can maintain relentless pressure for multiple rounds, an approach that could expose Veretennikov’s vulnerability to volume striking and sustained attacks, especially as the fight wears on.
Although he’s coming off two tough decisions, Prado’s willingness to push the pace and force scrambles often translates into openings for his aggressive style to shine.
Veretennikov, at 35, brings notable power but has struggled to adapt against younger, more dynamic opponents. Prado’s above-average strike defense and well-timed level changes could minimize exposure to Veretennikov’s big shots, while his creative submission threats offer a route if the bout hits the mat.
Ultimately, Prado’s combination of finishing skills, youthful energy, and capacity to adapt in the cage gives him the tools to hand Veretennikov another defeat and restart his UFC ascent.
Why Nikolay Veretennikov will win
- Last Fight: (L) Austin Vanderford – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 16 (15 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Nikolay Veretennikov’s best path to victory over Francisco Prado at UFC 318 lies in his experience, power striking, and defensive wrestling abilities.
A veteran of 18 professional bouts with nine knockout wins, Veretennikov boasts one-punch finishing power and a precision striking accuracy of 56%. This makes him particularly dangerous in early exchanges, where he’s notched five first-round finishes over his career.
Standing 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach, Veretennikov enjoys notable physical advantages over the shorter, shorter-reach Prado. If he controls distance with sharp jabs, punishing leg kicks, and well-timed counters, he can keep Prado at range and punish his entries.
His 57% takedown defense has allowed him to thwart most opponents’ grappling attempts, forcing fights to stay standing and letting his knockout power shine.
While Prado brings a fast-paced, aggressive approach, Veretennikov’s composure and ability to exploit defensive lapses in less-experienced foes are crucial. If Prado overcommits or gets reckless on entry, Nikolay can land a fight-changing shot or systematically break down his younger opponent.
Veretennikov’s Sambo background, veteran savvy, and accurate striking give him all the tools to weather early storms, land the cleaner, heavier shots, and potentially secure a statement finish to reestablish his status in the welterweight division.
Final Francisco Prado-Nikolay Veretennikov prediction & pick
Heading into UFC 318, Francisco Prado enters as the favorite against Nikolay Veretennikov, buoyed by youth, higher volume striking, and improved grappling. Prado’s ability to land 4.38 significant strikes per minute—almost doubling Veretennikov’s output, gives him a clear edge if this bout turns into a battle of activity and pressure.
Despite being undersized for welterweight, Prado’s pace and aggression have allowed him to stay competitive against tough opponents in the division.
Veretennikov, while having reach and experience on his side, has yet to secure a UFC win and is coming off a knockout loss. His 56% striking accuracy and notable power present threats, but his defensive lapses and declining form raise doubts about his ability to handle Prado’s output over three rounds.
Expect Prado to dictate the tempo, push Veretennikov backwards, and maximize his finishing instincts if openings arise. Ultimately, the younger prospect’s momentum and aggression should lead him to a unanimous-decision win or a late stoppage, further establishing himself in a crowded welterweight field.
Final Francisco Prado-Nikolay Veretennikov Prediction & Pick: Francisco Prado (-148), Over 2.5 Rounds (-175)
