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UFC 318: Dustin Poirier versus Max Holloway continues on the main card with a fight between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Holland-Rodriguez prediction and pick.
Kevin Holland (28-13, 1 NC) rides into UFC 318 after a slick second-round submission win over Vicente Luque, building momentum from a gritty decision victory over Gunnar Nelson in May. Now, Holland aims to extend his welterweight success and notch his third straight win by stopping Daniel Rodriguez this Saturday in New Orleans.
Daniel Rodriguez (19-5) returns to UFC 318 after a thrilling third-round TKO over Santiago Ponzinibbio in May, bouncing back from a decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum. Now, “D-Rod” aims to keep the momentum going by derailing Kevin Holland’s win streak in a high-stakes welterweight clash this Saturday in New Orleans.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 odds: Kevin Holland-Daniel Rodriguez odds
Kevin Holland: -575
Daniel Rodriguez: +425
Over 2.5 rounds: +130
Under 2.5 rounds: -166
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Why Kevin Holland will win
- Last Fight: (W) Vicente Luque – SUB R2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 23 (13 KO/TKO/10 SUB)
Kevin Holland comes into UFC 318 with a striking style and physical advantages that set him apart in this matchup. His 7-inch reach advantage allows him to keep Daniel Rodriguez at bay, controlling exchanges with his jab, sharp kicks, and unpredictable angles.
Holland’s defensive skills, absorbing only 3.11 significant strikes per minute with a 50% defense rate, enable him to avoid damage while picking his moments to strike.
In addition to his dynamic striking rooted in Kung Fu and complemented by black-belt-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Holland’s creativity and fight IQ allow him to capitalize on mistakes, whether on the feet or during scrambles on the mat.
He’s shown a penchant for mixing in grappling when needed, boasting nine career submission wins and a knack for snatching finishes in vulnerable moments. Against Rodriguez, whose approach relies on high-volume boxing but lacks significant reach or grappling advantages, Holland’s versatility is a key differentiator.
Recent performances suggest Holland is focused and as dangerous as ever, coming off a win over Vicente Luque that highlighted his ability to adapt and finish elite opponents. By leveraging his reach, mixing up his attacks, and staying disciplined, expect Holland to control the distance and claim a convincing victory this weekend.
Why Daniel Rodriguez will win
- Last Fight: (W) Santiago Ponzinibbio – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 13 (9 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Daniel Rodriguez’s path to victory over Kevin Holland at UFC 318 centers on relentless volume and forward pressure.
Rodriguez lands an outstanding 7.39 significant strikes per minute, nearly doubling Holland’s output, and thrives in high-tempo exchanges where he can drag opponents into a firefight. By crowding Holland’s long frame and working inside the jab, Rodriguez can blunt Holland’s range advantage and force the fight into close quarters.
Rodriguez is exceptionally durable with a proven record of weathering big shots and recovering quickly, traits that have enabled him to survive firefights with notable power punchers. His southpaw stance and crisp boxing allow him to slip off the center line and attack with sharp combinations, particularly when opponents try to reset or become stationary.
If Rodriguez maintains a steady pace and pressures with combinations to the head and body, he can exploit lapses in Holland’s defense, which has shown vulnerabilities under prolonged barrages.
While Holland is dangerous in transitions, Rodriguez’s 57% striking defense and ability to mix in clinch work make it difficult for Holland to impose his unorthodox attacks uninterrupted.
By keeping the fight standing, turning it into a volume battle, and relying on his chin and work rate, Rodriguez is primed to outstrike Holland over three rounds and steal a gritty decision win in New Orleans.
Final Kevin Holland-Daniel Rodriguez prediction & pick
Heading into UFC 318, the welterweight clash between Kevin Holland and Daniel Rodriguez promises fireworks. Holland holds a clear advantage in reach and versatility, using his long jab and movement to control range while blending striking with unpredictable grappling threats. His ability to mix attacks and stay elusive often frustrates volume punchers.
Rodriguez, however, is relentless in his pursuit, pressing forward with one of the highest output rates in the division. His ability to walk opponents down and land combinations to head and body makes him dangerous for the full fifteen minutes. If he can turn this into a phone-booth fight and sustain pressure, his volume and durability could pose significant problems for Holland.
Still, Holland’s recent form and tactical improvements suggest he’s ready to weather the storm and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Rodriguez. Expect Holland to dictate the distance early, secure big moments in scrambles, and edge Rodriguez on activity and control for a well-earned decision victory in New Orleans.
Final Kevin Holland-Daniel Rodriguez Prediction & Pick: Kevin Holland (-575), Over 2.5 Rounds (+130)
