Subscribe
Follow Us
UFC 318: Dustin Poirier versus Max Holloway kicks off the prelims with a fight between Carli Judice and Nicolle Caliari in the women's flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Judice-Caliari prediction and pick.
Carli Judice (4-2) enters UFC 318 off a career-saving head-kick knockout over Yuneisy Duben, rebounding from consecutive split-decision losses to Gabriella Fernandes and Ernesta Kareckaite. Now, Judice looks to continue her momentum in front of a home-state crowd by stopping Brazilian prospect Nicolle Caliari this Saturday in New Orleans.
Nicolle Caliari (8-3) steps into UFC 318 coming off a razor-close split decision loss to Ernesta Kareckaite in January after impressively submitting Corinne Laframboise with an armbar in round one of her Contender Series bout last fall. Now, the Brazilian aims to bounce back by halting Carli Judice’s homecoming momentum this Saturday in New Orleans.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 odds: Carli Judice-Nicolle Caliari odds
Carli Judice: -325
Nicolle Caliari: +260
Over 2.5 rounds: -238
Under 2.5 rounds: +180
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Carli Judice will win
- Last Fight: (W) Yuneisy Duben – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 (4 KO/TKO)
Carli Judice arrives at UFC 318 riding a wave of confidence after her spectacular head-kick knockout win over Yuneisy Duben. Her ability to rebound from close losses with a finish demonstrates not only technical evolution but also invaluable mental resilience, a crucial asset on fight night.
Judice’s aggressive striking style, highlighted by her power and ability to mix up her attacks, gives her a distinct edge in exchanges. Against Nicolle Caliari, whose grappling is her strongest weapon, Judice will seek to keep the bout standing, where her speed and variety in striking can exploit Caliari’s defensive gaps.
Moreover, Judice's relentless forward pressure can stifle Caliari’s attempts to set up takedowns or clinch entries. By controlling the distance and keeping the fight in open space, Judice maximizes her knockout threat while minimizing Caliari’s submission opportunities.
Fighting in front of a home-state crowd in New Orleans, Judice will have the motivational advantage. That kind of energy can translate into elevated performance, sharper focus, and the ability to dig deep during challenging moments. For these reasons, Judice is poised to seize momentum early, dictate the fight’s tempo, and emerge victorious on one of the biggest stages of her career.
Why Nicolle Caliari will win
- Last Fight: (L) Ernesta Kareckaite – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 (5 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Nicolle Caliari comes into UFC 318 with an arsenal that can trouble Carli Judice at every range. Her blend of Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu equips her to dictate where the fight takes place, giving her the edge if the action hits the mat or turns into a scramble.
Caliari’s recent performances show a fighter capable of finishing bouts by both knockout and submission, showcasing well-roundedness often missing at flyweight. When Judice presses with her patented aggression, Caliari’s sharp counters and powerful kicks can force her on the back foot or capitalize on defensive lapses.
The key to victory for Caliari lies in her ability to weather the early storm and extend the fight beyond the opening exchanges. She has demonstrated both toughness and endurance, often improving as her opponents fade. If Judice’s high output slows, Caliari’s grappling threat becomes even more dangerous, opening up opportunities for takedowns and slick submission setups.
Judice’s success is built on overwhelming early offense, but Caliari’s defensive skills and fight IQ make her the perfect fighter to exploit any gaps. By mixing in level changes, pressing Judice against the fence, and threatening submissions, Caliari is primed to pull off the upset in New Orleans.
Final Carli Judice-Nicolle Caliari prediction & pick
Heading into UFC 318, Carli Judice and Nicolle Caliari both present intriguing paths to victory. Judice’s explosive striking has shown to be fight-ending, especially when she’s able to dictate the range and pressure her opponent early. Her home-state advantage in New Orleans could further boost her confidence and energy on fight night.
However, Caliari carries a dangerous blend of submission skills and tough, disciplined Muay Thai, making her a threat wherever the fight goes. If she can weather Judice’s early storm and turn the contest into a grappling affair, her chances of securing a finish or dominant decision increase significantly.
Ultimately, the edge goes to Carli Judice for her momentum, knockout power, and crowd support. She’s proven she can rebound from adversity and capitalize on small defensive lapses. Expect Judice to establish her striking early, resist takedown attempts, and do enough damage to secure a unanimous decision victory in front of her hometown fans.
Final Carli Judice-Nicolle Caliari Prediction & Pick: Carli Judice (-325), Over 2.5 Rounds (-238)
