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The UFC 318 Early Prelims continue to roll as we bring a betting prediction and pick for this next tilt in the Heavyweight Division. Texas' Ryan Spann will take on Poland's Lukasz Brzeski as both men look to bounce back after recent strings of losses. Check out the UFC odds for our Spann-Brzeski prediction and pick.
Ryan Spann (22-11) is 8-6 inside the UFC since 2018. He was extremely successful through the first part of his tenure with a 7-2 record up until 2022, but he's since gone 1-4 in his last five fights and currently skidding. He made his heavyweight debut in his last bout, so he's hoping for his first win here in the new weight class. Spann stands 6-foot-5 with a 79-inch reach.
Lukasz Brzeski (9-6-1) has gone 1-5 inside the UFC since 2022. His lone win came three fights ago against Valter Walker and has aged well since, but Brzeski has dropped back-to-back fights in his recent appearances and will effectively have his back against the wall in this one. Brzeski stands 6-foot-3 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 odds: Ryan Spann-Lukasz Brzeski odds
Ryan Spann: -238
Lukasz Brzeski: +195
Over 1.5 rounds: +124
Under 1.5 rounds: -160
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Why Ryan Spann will win
- Last Fight: (L) Waldo Cortes-Acosta – TKO (left hook, R2)
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 13 SUB
Ryan Spann made his heavyweight debut during his last fight, weighing in at around 250 pounds and not having to cut weight for the first time. Spann was already a massive light heavyweight to begin with, but it's clear the weight cut was affecting his performance negatively.
From a physical standpoint, he fits right into this division, and it may take some time before he figures out the timing and power in adjusting to his opponents.
Still, Spann is the much better athlete in this matchup and his kickboxing is more crisp than that of Brzeski. Spann is also a dangerous grappler with 13 submissions, so he has a chance to make some noise as a rare submission threat in the Heavyweight Division. Look for him to shoot for takedowns on a number of occasions here.
Ultimately, Spann will have to be concerned about his defense and not allow Brzeski to land big, clean shots. His chin isn't what it used to be, and avoiding a brawl will be in his best interest. Clearly, Spann is worlds ahead on the ground, and a submission could be his clearest path to victory.
Why Lukasz Brzeski will win
- Last Fight: (L) Kennedy Nzechukwu – TKO (right hook, R1)
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Lukasz Brzeski came up short in his last fight after a quick knockout at the hands of Kennedy Nzechukwu. This marked his second consecutive loss by knockout in the first round, so it's clear he'll need to make adjustments and potentially switch his approach ahead of this one.
With just one win in six UFC appearances, it's safe to say Brzeski could potentially be fighting for his roster spot in this fight.
While this may add to his motivation, it's worth noting Brzeski's only UFC win came in a unanimous decision against Valter Walker where he paced himself for three rounds and out-struck a good opponent in a clean decision. Given Spann's cardio in the new weight class, Brzeski could benefit from a similar game plan instead of selling out during the first round.
It's easier said than done, but his defensive awareness at the start of the fight will have to improve. His striking defense isn't bad at all at 54%, but he'll need to keep his punches tighter and chin tucked when closing the distance against another dangerous opponent.
Final Ryan Spann-Lukasz Brzeski prediction & pick
This should be a fun scrap, and given where the over/under for rounds is set, we should be in for another quick finish from one of these two fighters.
Ryan Spann is certainly the more talented athlete here, and he'll have a strong advantage on the ground during this fight. Lukasz Brzeski will hope to make it out of the first round and could benefit from drawing this fight out longer to a decision.
Nevertheless, I don't see this fight having a slow pace given the aggression from Ryan Spann. His last three fights have also ended inside of two rounds, and given his physical advantage, I expect him to quickly close the distance and immediately engage with Brzeski. From there, I just don't see Brzeski seriously hurting Spann or effectively stopping the takedown if Spann tries for it.
For our final prediction, let's roll with Ryan Spann to win this fight. We'll take a chance on the over as I predict a stoppage late in the second round.
Final Ryan Spann-Lukasz Brzeski Prediction & Pick: Ryan Spann (-238); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+124)
