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The UFC 318 Prelims are coming in hot as we're set for another betting prediction and pick for this bout in the Middleweight (185) Division on Saturday. Ranked contenders meet as No. 10 Marvin Vettori of Italy takes on No. 11-ranked Brendan Allen of Louisiana. Check the UFC odds for our Vettori-Allen prediction and pick.
Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) is 9-6-1 inside the UFC since 2016. Following his title challenge against Israel Adesanya in 2021, Vettori has gone 2-3 in his last five against some of the top fighters in the division. He comes in as the betting underdog once again looking to establish himself as a title hopeful. Vettori stands 6 feet tall with a 74-inch reach.
Brendan Allen (24-7) has gone an impressive 12-4 inside the UFC since 2019. He rode one of the UFC's longest winning streaks at seven fights but has dropped back-to-back bouts in his most recent appearances. A win here would put him right on track and back in the Top 10. Allen stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 odds: Marvin Vettori-Brendan Allen odds
Marvin Vettori: +170
Brendan Allen: -205
Over 2.5 rounds: -360
Under 2.5 rounds: +260
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Why Marvin Vettori will win
- Last Fight: (L) Roman Dolidze – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
Marvin Vettori fell during his last outing against Roman Dolidze in a tightly-contested kickboxing affair for five rounds. Vettori didn't attempt a single takedown and chose to stand and strike against his opponent, showing off a crazy chin in the process. Notably, Vettori has never been finished in his career, and it's not likely Brendan Allen will be the one to break that streak.
Vettori typically has a strong wrestling advantage over opponents, but he may opt towards the striking once again during this fight. Brendan Allen has been very dangerous on the ground over the last few years, so this could be another instance where Vettori feels more comfortable forcing his opponent against the cage and landing offense on him.
Either way, Vettori will have to work on his timing as he was getting out-struck during the exchanges against Dolidze. Both men will be closing the distance with force, but Vettori will have to land more consistently with his jab to see a noticeable striking advantage during this fight.
Why Brendan Allen will win
- Last Fight: (L) Anthony Hernandez – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 14 SUB
After recording four rear naked choke finishes in five fights, Brendan Allen appeared poised to become the next threat in the division. However, when tasked with talented strikers and competent grapplers in his last two fights, he's come up short both in the striking numbers and his grappling offense.
He may have a tough time finding an edge over a very similar fighter to him in Vettori, so expect Allen to do what he knows best and look for the submission openings here.
Allen is also very good in overcoming adversity during his fights, not folding under pressure and using his second wind to turn the tide in a fight. He's turned away from his grappling over the last few bouts, and against Vettori's 69% takedown defense, it could become difficult for him to initial the grappling on his own terms in this one.
Ultimately, Brendan Allen may have to be the cleaner striker during this matchup if he wants to come away with a win. His ability to land first during the exchanges and exit before Vettori gets his shots off will be most important in finding this win.
Final Marvin Vettori-Brendan Allen prediction & pick
This is set to be a high-level matchup between two fighters with rather similar skill sets. Both are very good wrestlers, and both can crack on the feet. We've seen both of them opt towards kickboxing-style fights as of late, so this could be another instance where these two test their Muay Thai out against one another.
Still, Marvin Vettori isn't likely to engage the grappling due to Allen's submission abilities, while Allen will be wary of gassing himself out against Vettori's takedown defense. I think Vettori's jab will be a big story throughout this fight, but Allen can certainly negate that with head movement and fast hand speed.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with Brendan Allen to get the win largely due to fighting in front of a hometown crowd. With how close this matchup already is, the support from the fans should give him that final boost to take him over the edge in a close decision.
Final Marvin Vettori-Brendan Allen Prediction & Pick: Brendan Allen (-205); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-360)
