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The UFC 318 Early Prelims continue to roll as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Australia's Jimmy Crute will make the walk against Poland's Marcin Prachnio as both fighters hope to bounce back from a loss. Check the UFC odds for our Crute-Prachnio prediction and pick.
Jimmy Crute (12-4-2) has gone 4-4-2 inside the UFC since 2018. With three losses in his last five fights, his other two results have been majority draws just one fight apart from each other. Coming in as the heavy betting favorite here, Crute will hope for his first win since 2020. He stands 6-foot-2 with a 74-inch reach.
Marcin Prachnio (17-8) is currently 4-6 under the UFC banner since 2018. While his UFC beginnings were marred by three-straight losses, he's managed a respectable 4-3 in the following fights. He's 2-2 in his last four coming in off a loss, so look for him to carry some momentum into this fight as the underdog. Prachnio stands 6-foot-3 with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 Odds: Jimmy Crute-Marcin Prachnio Odds
Jimmy Crute: -310
Marcin Prachnio: +250
Over 2.5 rounds: +110
Under 2.5 rounds: -140
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Why Jimmy Crute Will Win
- Last Fight: (D) Rodolfo Bellato – DRAW
- Last 5: 0-3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Jimmy Crute can't seem to catch a break after fighting towards another Majority Draw for the second time in just three fights. He was TKO'd in three previous fights and hasn't seen a UFC win in five years, so we're still waiting for Crute to take a step in the right direction and salvage what's left of his record. He's a gifted athlete and well-rounded fighter deserving of his betting odds as the favorite.
Jimmy Crute will have a strong advantage on the ground with his wrestling and submission capabilities. Prachnio is much more comfortable on the feet and his takedown defense has been suspect in the past at just 53%. While Crute has opted to swing against recent opponents, a well-timed takedown into submission offense could be his best chance at a win.
Still, closing the distance will be his biggest focus as Crute could prove to be physically stronger compared to his opponent. He could benefit from landing elbows and short punches in the clinch in an effort to tire his opponent out. We have to give Crute the slight advantage in a three-round fight given his recent experience.
Why Marcin Prachnio Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Modestas Bukauskas – SUB (arm triangle choke, R3)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Marcin Prachnio is searching for some consistency after alternating wins and losses over the last four fights. With three of his four UFC wins coming by way of unanimous decision, Prachnio is certainly capable of turning in a complete performance and can pace himself over three rounds. His knockout power is evident with 11 KO's to his name, but he's deceptively good at managing the range and keeping opponents distant with his power threat.
Marcin Prachnio lands on 54% of his significant strikes and defends strikes at the same rate. Crute's defense falls to just 42% and he's absorbing almost as many strikes per minute as he's landing. Prachnio's ratio is much better as he's landing 5.57 strikes per minute, so his output can be consistent if he's able to find his rhythm.
For Prachnio, this fight will be all about figuring the awkward timing of Crute and countering when his opponent lunges to close the distance. Crute is much more rigid and stiff with his movements, so Prachnio could benefit from being the looser, more fluid fighter on the feet.
Final Jimmy Crute-Marcin Prachnio Prediction & Pick
While Jimmy Crute comes in as the rightful betting favorite, I feel as though these odds should be much closer given each fighter's last five fights. While Prachnio has seen his losses, he's also found paths to victory in fighting towards decisions. Jimmy Crute hasn't been able to do enough to avoid “Draw” rulings, so the thought of another similar performance could be weighing on his psyche.
Jimmy Crute's biggest advantage here will be his ground game and ability to threaten submissions. However, if Prachnio is able to stuff the takedowns and get back to his feet, this fight could be much closer on the feet than people may think. Ultimately, Prachnio has the cleaner striking rhythm and could put the pressure on late in the third round if he's finding success early.
For our final prediction, we'll take an underdog shot on Marcin Prachnio to win this fight by decision with his striking in the later rounds. He's shown small signs of improvement as of late and it's hard to back a Jimmy Crute with such high odds given he hasn't cashed since 2020.
Final Jimmy Crute-Marcin Prachnio Prediction & Pick: Marcin Prachnio (+250)
