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As the UFC Early Prelims come to a close, we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this upcoming Middleweight (185) bout to open the Prelims portion of the card. Cameroon's Ateba Gautier will take on Switzerland's own Robert Valentin in what should be a chaotic scrap. Check the UFC odds for our Gautier-Valentin prediction and pick.
Ateba Gautier (7-1) is 1-0 making his second professional appearance for the UFC. A budding prospect out of Africa discovered on Dana White's Contender Series, Gautier has won six consecutive bouts by knockout leading into this fight as the heavy betting favorite. He stands 6-foot-4 with an 81-inch reach.
Robert Valentin (10-5) is 0-2 heading into his third UFC fight, most recently falling to Torrez Finney in a split decision. He rode a five-fight winning streak prior to his arrival to the promotion, so he's still determined to find the elusive first win sooner rather than later. Valentin stands 6-foot-2 with a 77-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 Odds: Ateba Gautier-Robert Valentin Odds
Ateba Gautier: -550
Robert Valentin: +410
Over 1.5 rounds: +114
Under 1.5 rounds: -145
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Why Ateba Gautier Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jose Medina – KO (knee, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO
Ateba Gautier impressed fans by cashing-in on his UFC debut as a -450 betting favorite. While his opponent stepped in on short notice, Gautier did what he had to do in resounding fashion with a knee-strike knockout. It earned him a ‘Performance of the Night' bonus and he should be in for a similar finish given the odds in this one.
Gautier is a gifted athlete and generates a ton of power thanks to his physically strong frame. While his grappling is still an aspect of his game he'll have to work on, he certainly has a shot to be a talented wrestler given his 90% takedown defense up to this point. He'll likely have to wrestle much more in the future, but he's shown glimpses of competence in takedown defense and reversing positions.
It's likely that Gautier is planning to run through Valentin with his unrelenting pressure and earn himself another knockout. He's very capable with his kicking game, knees, and elbows, so expect Gautier to throw the kitchen sink in terms of his attacks. His defense has looked solid up to this point and if he can avoiding getting caught and use his reach advantage, he should be able to come away with a comfortable win.
Why Robert Valentin Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Torrez Finney – S DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Robert Valentin got a tough decision draw during his last fight, but the reality was that he couldn't do anything to defend the eight takedowns by his opponent throughout the fight. The performance exposed a significant hole in his game and he'll certainly have to work on getting back to his feet moving forward. However, it's not likely that Gautier will force the wrestling, so Valentin could feel good about his chances during a stand-up kickboxing fight.
Valentin has been finished just three times in his career, usually displaying a solid chin and toughness during a brawl. He'll want to avoid as many clean shots coming back from this opponent, but Valentin has been known to take risks during a fight. It may take one here in closing the distance and lunging for Gautier's chin in order to change the trajectory.
We could even see Valentin flip the script and initiate his own grappling knowing Gautier is seriously uncomfortable on the ground. With six submissions under his belt, Valentin will surprisingly have the grappling advantage over his opponent, potentially catching Gautier if he gets too close during an entry.
Final Ateba Gautier-Robert Valentin Prediction & Pick
The betting odds are fairly indicative of this matchup as Ateba Gautier is the all-around better prospect and more impressive athlete. Still, Robert Valentin has been dangerous as an underdog in the past, so don't be surprised if he can have his moments and swing the fight in his direction at times.
Still, I don't see Ateba Gautier being too affected by Valentin's offense as his chin really hasn't been tested up to this point. Given his strength and ability to move in and out of range quickly, it's hard to image that Valentin will be landing cleanly, and consistently on Valentin.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Ateba Gautier to win this fight, likely in the first round as he's been known to start extremely fast. We'll take the under for total rounds and taking him by KO/TKO in Round 1 wouldn't be a bad bet either.
Final Ateba Gautier-Robert Valentin Prediction & Pick: Ateba Gautier (-550); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-145)
