It’s baseball season, and we are talking about one of the best. Stick with us as we share our MLB odds series and reveal our Shohei Ohtani regular season home runs prediction and pick while detailing his journey.

Ohtani is one of the best players in the game. Sadly, there are still a few who don’t notice his amazing skills since he plays for the Los Angeles Angels. It hinders the way people see him. Regardless, Ohtani has shown his amazing array of skills over the last two seasons. He batted .273 with 34 home runs and 95 RBIs in 2022. Additionally, he hit .257 with 46 home runs and 100 RBIs in the previous season. It will be his sixth season in the majors, as well as a contract year. Therefore, there are many underlying factors that make this an interesting season. Will his numbers go off and explode to career heights? Will he sign with a new team? However, all that is not relevant in this discussion. We are here to break down if Ohtani can hit 33-or-more home runs in 2023. Ultimately, much of the possibility of that happening relies on his health.

Here are the Shohei Ohtani Regular Season Gome Home Runs MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Shohei Ohtani Regular Season Home Run Odds

Over 32.5 Home Runs: -118

Under 32.5 Home Runs: -108

*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Ohtani Will Hit Over 32.5 Home Runs

We first break down why this is happening. First, look at his stats against his division rivals. Ohtani hit six home runs in 18 games against the Oakland Athletics and four home runs in 19 games against the Texas Rangers. Significantly, he has learned how to club the baseball against those two teams. But Ohtani has also done the impossible and learned how to hit the baseball well at Angels Stadium, which is a pitchers’ park. Therefore, there is no space that restricts his hitting power or ability. Ohtani hit 21 of his 34 home runs at the Big A in 2022. Can he replicate that success again in front of the home fans?

Live and breathe baseball?

🚨 Get viral MLB graphics, memes, rumors and trending news delivered right to your inbox with the Clutch Newsletter.

The next thing we break down is his month-by-month slugging. First, Ohtani started the season with four home runs in April. It was modest but not overarching or explosive. Then, he went off with seven dingers in May. Ohtani followed that up with six home runs in June, five in July, before adding eight in August. Finally, he finished with four in September. These stats indicate that Ohtani is a slow starter and slow finisher and takes some time to heat up at the plate. Thus, his raw power came into effect once May hit and continued through August. If Ohtani can start hitting and maintain that power stroke, he could reach 40 home runs again.

Ohtani will hit 33 home runs if he can start the season hot and also continue to dominate Oakland and Texas. Furthermore, he must start to hit home runs in other ballparks to help his cause.

Why Ohtani Will Not Hit Over 32.5 Home Runs

Ohtani struggles against the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. Unfortunately, it’s a reality and something he must improve upon. Ohtani hit .206 with two home runs, eight RBIs, and six runs through 18 games against the Astros in 2022. Additionally, he hit .279 with two home runs, eight RBIs, and six runs through 18 games against the Mariners in 2022. Can he solve these teams and their excellent pitching?

Ohtani has also struggled at several ballparks throughout his career. Therefore, it is something he must improve upon to really shatter the 40-home run mark. Ohtani did not hit a home run at Fenway Park. Yankees Stadium, Progressive Field, Tropicana Field, or Dodgers Stadium in 2022, Likewise, Yankees Stadium has been a house of horrors for Ohtani on the mound, so it is not surprising that he also struggles at the plate. Ohtani will get a chance early in the season to erase the negative aura of his abilities at Yankees Stadium as the Angels face the Yankees from April 18-20. Moreover, it will be a chance to see if Ohtani has improved on his game and if he is ready for the big time. That series will come directly after a trip to Fenway Park to see the Red Sox. Then, the Angels will visit the Cleveland Guardians, and Progressive Field, in May. The Angels will visit Dodgers Stadium in July and Tropicana Field in September. Can Ohtani solve the pitching and hit one out of the park at these stadiums?

Ohtani will only not hit 33 home runs if he continues to struggle against the Astros and Mariners. Likewise, he must stay healthy, or he will not hit the 33 mark.

Final Shohei Ohtani Regular Season Home Runs Prediction & Pick

Ohtani raised his game in 2022 and hit the ball more. However, he hit less home runs. Expect a return to the balance and for Ohtani to cash out on a monster contract by hitting the ball into a fan’s glove in right-center field at least 4o times.

Final Shohei Ohtani Regular Season Home Runs Prediction & Pick: Over 32.5 Home Runs: -118