The Houston Cougars are coming off a tight finish against Memphis to end the year in the AAC Tournament, but as the number one seed in the Midwest, they are primed to make a run to a title this year. It is time to continue our March Madness odds series with a 2023 NCAA Tournament prediction, showing why Houston is going to be cutting down the nets.

Here are the March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2023 NCAA Tournament Odds

Houston: +500

Alabama: +750

Kansas: +1200

Purdue: +1200

UCLA: +1200

Gonzaga: +1500

Seeding

Since the 2002 tournament, meaning the last twenty winners, only once has the winner not been a three seed or better. That year was 2014, and UConn took out an eighth seed in Kentucky, winning it as a seven seed. Seeing is huge in this tournament, as higher seeds have easier early games, meaning the second-round upset is far less likely. Since the 2002 tournament, one seed's have made the Sweet Sixteen in 70 of 80 chances in the tournaments, been at least once in the Final Four in 19 of 20, and one has been to the finals in 16 of 20. They are also winners of 14 of the last 20 tournaments. Being a one seed has its advantages, and Houston has that one seed.

Offense

In the last twenty tournaments, all but one winner has been in the top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency rating per KenPom. So that leaves a top-three seed, with a rating in the top 25 of adjusted offensive efficiency. This eliminates Kansas and Kansas State from potential contenders. Houston is ranked 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency, top five in the nation in offensive rebound rate, and sixth in the nation in turnover ratio. This is a balanced offense that takes care of the ball, which is key to winning in March.

The best offensive player on the court for Houston this year has been Marcus Sasser, but his injury should give fans of this Cougars team pause for concern. While he has led the team on offense, this is a team that is balanced. Sasser is 113th in the nation in points per game, so not a dominant scorer. Three other plays average over 10 points per game, with another sitting at 9.7 points per game. Shead can help replace much of the three-point production if Sasser is out, shooting 32.6% this year beyond the stripe. Walker can play both inside and outside, stinging a three, but also going in the paint and getting points. There is a rotation of players that is flawless. This Cougars team scores 75 points per game, and while that is not high, it is more than enough with this dominant defensive unit.

Defense

In the last twenty tournaments, no winner has come from outside of the top 50 in adjusted defensive ratings per KenPom. This is the stat that will eliminate many teams. Looking for a top three seed, with a top 25 offensive rating, and top 50 defensive rating leaves only seven teams to pick from- Houston, Alabama, Texas, UCLA, Purdue, Arizona, and Marquette. UCLA is left with the clearest path, with their one seed eliminated on the defensive metric, the rest of the top eight seeds are still standing.  Houston makes a living on defense, ranking fourth in adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom.

Houston only gives up 56.5 points per game on the season. While they do not face top offensive teams in the American Conference, they smother teams overall, regardless of their offense. Houston is the best in the nation at defensive field goal percentage, number two in defensive three-point percentage, and second in points per game allowed. This is a true Kelvin Sampson team with a focus on defense and rebounding.

Kelvin Sampson

Experience matters in March. Sampson has the experience to get Houston over the top. He has been to the tournament 17 times, with five sweet sixteens, three elite eights, and two final fours. Sampson has never cut down the net though. Beyond Kevin Ollie in 2014 (which has clearly become an outlier year), all of the last twenty head coaches to win the tournament had more than five years of experience. Sampson has plenty of experience, taking over Houston in 2014, and twenty seasons at different schools prior to that. Experience matters in March and Sampson has the experience to make it happen.

Why Houston over the others?

Adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom places Houston as clearly the number one team in the nation. UCLA sits second, but their loss of Jaylen Clark will hurt that rating, specifically their dominant defense. Alabama has one of the best perimeter defenses in the nation, but experience is a concern, with Nate Oats on in his fourth year at Alabama, and they have never been beyond the elite eight. They may need a final four run before making the final step. Texas is a concern. Of the past 20 title winners, 11 of them boast top 20 offensive and defensive units. Texas meets that criteria, but their coaching situation is a major question mark with an interim coach leading the way. Purdue may have one of the best players in the nation in Zach Edey, but a formula clearly exists to beat them, with Indiana taking them out twice in their stretch of losing four out of six in February. Arizona and Marquette both have the same issues, sitting just inside the top 50 on defensive efficiency, but outside the top 40. Only once since KenPom started adjusted defensive efficiency has that happened.

Houston is going to be cutting down the nets at the end of this, and it is because they are the most well-rounded team, with the experience, and the math clearly says so.

2023 NCAA Tournament Prediction & Pick: Houston +500