It might only be May, but it’s never too early to look ahead to the 2024 NFL season. With five rookie QBs entering the mix as first-round selections, it remains to be seen if anyone can unseat Patrick Mahomes from the top spot of our NFL QB Power Rankings.
The 2023 stat lines of each QB are listed below (if applicable), along with their 2024 stat projections. This list factors in each team’s presumed starter, so if you are looking for Michael Penix Jr. on this list, you’ll have to look elsewhere.
32. Bryce Young – Carolina Panthers
2023 Stats – 2,877 passing yards, 11 passing TDs, 10 INTs
It feels like Bryce Young was absolutely put in a Justin Fields-esque situation, an unwinnable scenario that saw his first season be an absolute disaster. But with new coaching and a focus on developing him, could things finally be turning around?
Young showed brief moments of why he was the top pick, but the Carolina Panthers look to have struck out on the Alabama QB so far. If Dave Canales can work his magic like he did with Baker Mayfield, then Young isn’t a lost cause, but expect a very trying season from Young in ‘24.
2024 Projections – 3,182 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 12 INTs
31. Daniel Jones – New York Giants
2023 Stats – 909 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 6 INTs
It is a foregone conclusion that the New York Giants regret the big-money extension they handed Daniel Jones. Coming off a short season after suffering a season-ending injury, Jones is back to try and recapture some of his shine, although fighting Drew Lock for the gig won’t be easy.
While Malik Nabers will help, Jones will again be asked to do too much for an offense that will struggle often. Plus, there’s no guarantee that Jones earns the job again, making the 2024 season likely the last one Jones with the Giants.
2024 Projections – 2,989 passing yards, 18 TDs, 11 INTs
30. Bo Nix – Denver Broncos
2023 College Stats – 4,508 passing yards, 45 passing TDs, 3 INTs
As the last of the five QBs drafted in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, Bo Nix looks like the frontrunner to replace Russell Wilson. With the Denver Broncos needing some sort of spark on offense, they are turning to the former Oregon Duck for a shot in the arm.
Nix will be pressed to do a lot with a maligned group of weapons, but early reports say that Nix could be exactly what Denver needs. Regardless, expect some struggles from the rookie as he looks to find his footing in the NFL.
2024 Projections – 3,217 passing yards, 21 TDs, 13 INTs
29. Gardner Minshew – Las Vegas Raiders
2023 Stats – 3,305 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 9 INTs
Handed a decent sum of money this offseason by the Las Vegas Raiders, Gardner Minshew gets to compete with Aidan O’Connell for the starting role. Coming off a solid season where he stepped in after Anthony Richardson went down, Minshew continues to heavily lean into his gunslinger mentality.
Las Vegas will again be looking up at the top of the AFC West division, and Minshew, who likely will have plenty of chances to throw the ball, will likely be given every shot to be the full-time starter all season, competition or not.
2024 Projections – 2,657 passing yards, 16 TDs, 8 INTs
28. J.J. McCarthy – Minnesota Vikings
2023 College Stats – 2,991 passing yards, 22 passing TDs, 4 INTs
Yes, Sam Darnold likely will be the Week 1 starter for the Minnesota Vikings – but expect that to be temporary. J.J. McCarthy likely will be pushed into the limelight right around their Week 6 bye, if not sooner.
While he will probably struggle as he gets his feet wet, the Vikings aren’t trying to be good this year. Getting McCarthy as much playing time as possible is likely the route Kevin O’Connell will take, so expect 10+ starts from the Michigan rookie.
2024 Projections – 3,187 passing yards, 17 TDs, 13 INTs
27. Derek Carr – New Orleans Saints
2023 Stats – 3,878 passing yards, 25 passing TDs, 8 INTs
With no real long-term succession plan in place, the New Orleans Saints are once again turning to Derek Carr at QB. While Carr did have a fairly strong 2023 season, at this point in his career, his ceiling is capped.
Limited weapons around him will limit Carr this season – even though Chris Olave is still his top target, no one was brought in to replace Michael Thomas, pushing Rashid Shaheed up into the WR2 role. It’s possible that Carr has another strong season with low turnovers, but don’t expect it, even though they do face the easiest schedule in the league.
2024 Projections – 3,798 passing yards, 25 TDs, 14 INTs
26. Drake Maye – New England Patriots
2023 College Stats – 3,608 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 9 INTs
It’s a shame that Drake Maye sits so low in our NFL QB Power Rankings, but his position is more so a reflection of his weapons than his talent. Drafted into an uphill situation, Maye will need to first beat Jacoby Brissett in a training camp battle, with the winner earning the sweet, sweet prize of playing in an offense devoid of a ton of talent.
Maye is a pro-ready QB that will definitely improve the Patriots, but don’t expect him to be a miracle worker, especially with a below-average offensive line and receiver core filled with past-their-prime veterans.
2024 Projections – 2,809 passing yards, 17 TDs, 14 INTs
25. Russell Wilson – Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 Stats – 3,070 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 8 INTs
Mr. Unlimited found himself a new home this offseason, as the experiment with the Broncos ended far quicker than expected. As the new starting QB for the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wilson is now tasked with reviving a stagnant offense that is finally out of the Kenny Pickett era.
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith likely won’t do Wilson any favors, but Wilson’s connection with George Pickens will dictate the success of this offense in 2024. While you shouldn’t expect a renaissance season, Wilson could surprise some people – but I wouldn’t count on it.
2024 Projections – 2,942 passing yards, 19 TDs, 11 INTs
24. Will Levis – Tennessee Titans
2023 Stats – 1,808 passing yards, 8 passing TDs, 4 INTs
Handed the keys to replace Ryan Tannehill, Will Levis looks to embark on his first full season as a starter for the Tennessee Titans. Supported by a veteran cast of receivers (Tyler Boyd, DeAndre Hopkins, and Calvin Ridley) and a new head coach (Brian Callahan), all eyes will be on Levis this year.
The Titans face an uphill battle in the AFC South, especially with Derrick Henry having departed for Baltimore. But not all hope is lost for this team, as long as Levis settles in early and lets Callahan and the offense do the work for him.
2024 Projections – 3,685 passing yards, 22 TDs, 14 INTs
23. Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks
2023 Stats – 3,624 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 9 INTs
Underappreciated his entire career, Geno Smith survived the 2024 NFL Draft unscathed. Continuing as the starter in Seattle, Smith has a chance to surprise again, especially with his three-headed group at WR.
Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba return at WR, giving Smith one of the deepest rooms in the NFL. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will need to work with Smith to keep him on his game, as he is one of the biggest catalysts to this team making the postseason in head coach Mike Macdonald’s first season.
2024 Projections – 3,876 passing yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs
22. Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders
2023 College Stats – 3,812 passing yards, 40 passing TDs, 4 INTs
A polarizing rookie prospect from the 2024 NFL Draft, Jayden Daniels is looking to revamp the Washington Commanders offense. Bringing both his passing and rushing abilities to the NFL, Daniels is primed to finally be a long-term piece in the DMV.
Some injury concerns and style of play may give fans flashbacks to the hype surrounding Robert Griffin III, but Daniels is poised to make a name for himself. With both Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson as his top targets, look for Daniels to do what he can to kick off his NFL career, even though it might be a tough go out of the gate.
2024 Projections – 3,753 yards, 17 TDs, 12 INTS, 583 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs
21. Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns
2023 Stats – 1,115 passing yards, 7 passing TDs, 4 INTs
An injury-riddled season did not get Deshaun Watson’s tenure with the Cleveland Browns off to a fast start, but neither did his off-field situation. Looking to make a comeback in 2024, Watson has a revamped WR group to utilize, which will help fill the void of an injured Nick Chubb.
Jerry Jeudy now is the WR2 for Cleveland, and he is now in a situation where he could finally reach his potential. Watson has all the weapons around him (and a strong offensive line), so there really aren’t any excuses for him this year.
2024 Projections – 3,523 passing yards, 22 TDs, 12 INTs
20. Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts
2023 Stats – 577 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 1 INT, 136 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs
A promising rookie season was cut far too short for Anthony Richardson, but all signs point to the Colts having made the right decision. The former Florida Gator looks to be the perfect blend of passing and athleticism, which is exactly where the QB position is heading in the present-day NFL. So, he's coming in at 20th overall on our NFL Power Rankings.
Richardson was able to get Michael Pittman Jr. back this offseason, and the WR core as a whole is incredibly strong, top to bottom. Plus, with Jonathan Taylor secured long-term, Richardson just needs to stay healthy for this Colts team to reach a whole new level.
2024 Projections – 2,997 passing yards, 16 TDs, 10 INTs, 523 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs
19. Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears
2023 College Stats – 3,633 passing yards, 30 passing TDs, 5 INTs
The top pick from the 2024 NFL Draft now has to prove his worth in the big leagues, but Caleb Williams looks cut out for the job. It was a no-brainer for the Chicago Bears to move on from Justin Fields and draft Williams, and they did a great job surrounding their new QB with plenty of weapons.
While Williams is primed to be a fantastic QB in this league, he certainly will face some adversity with his new franchise. A total of 3,838 yards is the current Bears franchise record for passing yards in a season (set almost 30 years ago), and while it might come off as surprising, all Williams needs to do is throw for over 225 yards in every game to eclipse the record.
2024 Projections – 4,176 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 10 INTs
18. Baker Mayfield – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 Stats – 4,044 passing yards, 28 passing TDs, 10 INTs
It feels good to see Baker Mayfield enjoy a career renaissance down in Tampa Bay, and he was handsomely rewarded this offseason with a new contract. Having been a beneficiary of having both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to throw to, Mayfield was able to shed some of his demons from his days in Cleveland.
But not everything is sunshine and rainbows for the former Sooner – now comes the hard part, justifying the millions the Bucs threw his way. Expect Mayfield to have another strong season, potentially leading Tampa to an NFC South title, but watch out for a potential increase in his turnovers.
2024 Projections – 3,753 passing yards, 24 TDs, 13 INTs
17. Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons
2023 Stats – 2,331 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 5 INTs
A fresh start was in order for Kirk Cousins this offseason, as he found his way to the Atlanta Falcons. Being handed a four-year deal affords Cousins a bit of a leash to get settled, but expect some solid things from the former Vikings signal caller.
Cousins has the best set of weapons around him in his entire career, and he had the opportunity to throw to Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs. Having Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson around him will certainly elevate his game, while also helping put any noise surrounding the Michael Penix Jr. situation to bed.
2024 Projections – 4,108 passing yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs
16. Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins
2023 Stats – 4,624 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, 14 INTs
Having led the NFL in passing yards in 2023, Tua Tagovailoa did all he could to shed any labels of him not being worthy of being a starting NFL quarterback. With the full trust of Mike McDaniels, Tagovailoa was pretty solid for the Miami Dolphins last season, and he will look to build upon that success this season.
With both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle still in tow for another year, Tagovailoa has one of the league’s best one-two punches at his disposal. McDaniels is one the league’s premier play callers (which Tagovailoa benefits from), and he should be able to help the southpaw produce another strong season, a season that potentially could be after signing a new deal.
2024 Projections – 4,234 passing yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs
15. Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals
2023 Stats – 1,799 passing yards, 10 passing TDs, 5 INTs
Having made his long-awaited return from an ACL injury, Kyler Murray looked like his old self down the stretch last season. As the Arizona Cardinals continue their rebuild, Murray gets a full season to run the offense, this time with a bonafide star in Marvin Harrison Jr. at his side.
Murray’s agility is what defines his game and helps him overcome any height concerns, and it doesn’t look like that was taken from him after his injury. A full offseason of strengthening will help Murray get even better, and a top-15 season from Murray looks to be in the cards (no pun intended) this upcoming season.
2024 Projections – 3,703 passing yards, 19 TDs, 12 INTs, 524 rushing yards, 6 rushing TDs
14. Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 Stats – 4,016 passing yards, 21 passing TDs, 14 INTs
Out goes Calvin Ridley and in comes Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. for the Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence. Giving Lawrence two new weapons, along with Evan Engram and Christian Kirk, hopefully will help the former top pick find a new gear moving forward.
It’s tough to say that 4K passing yards and 20+ TDs is a bad season, but it feels like Lawrence left a lot on the field with those stats. If the Jaguars want to get out of the tough AFC South division, Lawrence will need to step up, and he has the ability to do just that, hence why he is 14th on our QB Power Rankings list.
2024 Projections – 3,796 passing yards, 23 TDs, 13 INTs
13. Brock Purdy – San Francisco 49ers
2023 Stats – 4,280 passing yards, 31 passing TDs, 11 INTs
Next up in our NFL Power Rankings is Brock Purdy, who was able to thrive in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and take the San Francisco 49ers to last year’s Super Bowl. A 30-plus TD season was made easy by throwing to Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel, but Purdy isn’t just a beneficiary of his environment.
However, defenses will likely continue to come after Purdy and bring more pressure his way, which seems to be when he struggles. While the offensive line in San Francisco is solid enough, Purdy may need to use his legs to extend plays this season, which would help him justify his ranking.
2024 Projections – 3,921 passing yards, 26 TDs, 12 INTs
12. Jared Goff – Detroit Lions
2023 Stats – 4,575 passing yards, 30 passing TDs, 12 INTs
Fresh off his lucrative contract extension, Jared Goff finds himself inside the top-15 of our NFL QB Power Rankings. Once having been considered an after-thought, Goff has transformed himself in a bonafide QB for the Detroit Lions.
The match between the Lions and their QB feels perfect, as Goff can do whatever is needed but isn’t often asked to do all that much. Having bonafide weapons like Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and others certainly makes life easy for Goff, but throwing for over 4,500 yards doesn’t just happen.
2024 Projections – 4,354 passing yards, 29 TDs, 11 INTs
11. Aaron Rodgers – New York Jets
Missed most of 2023 season (no stats)
The first iteration of the Aaron Rodgers-New York Jets era never got going, as a season-ending injury stopped Rodgers in his tracks. Fresh off an offseason of recovery, Rodgers now looks to make a name for himself in green and white.
There have been plenty of offseason headlines following Rodgers and his off-field activities, but he still is one of the best QBs in the game on the field. As long as his maligned offensive line can quit being a leaky sieve, then he can get back to being a top option – but that’s a big IF.
2024 Projections – 3,569 passing yards, 22 TDs, 10 INTs
10. Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles
2023 Stats – 3,858 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 15 INTs, 605 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs
As the beneficiary of the “Tush Push” movement last season, Jalen Hurts could see those opportunities decrease with the addition of Saquon Barkley. With the need to improve more in the passing game, Hurts likely will be counted on more as a passer than previously.
His ability to extend plays and keep them alive makes Hurts a very valuable QB, but there are some concerns. The offense feels like it goes stagnant at times, even with as much star power as it has, so if Hurts was to live up to his 11th spot on this list, he will need to shoulder even more of the load in 2024.
2024 Projections – 3,648 passing yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs, 497 rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs
9. Jordan Love – Green Bay Packers
2023 Stats – 4,159 passing yards, 32 passing TDs, 11 INTs
As unfortunate to some as it may seem, the Green Bay Packers look to have found their next franchise QB in Jordan Love. While only having produced in one season so far, there are plenty of signs from Love that point to him becoming yet another bonafide stud in green and gold.
With a plethora of young options at WR and TE, plus the addition of Josh Jacobs, Love has everything he could ask for heading into his second season as the starter. The Packers went from their Super Bowl window being locked to the window being wide open, and that all comes back to just how good Love looked in 2023, something he absolutely expand upon this year.
2024 Projections – 3,752 passing yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs
8. Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams
2023 Stats – 3,965 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 11 INTs
Ol’ gunslinger Matthew Stafford is back with a vengeance for the Los Angeles Rams, as he comes in at eighth overall in our NFL Power Rankings. Looking like his old self, Stafford was a big-time beneficiary of Cooper Kupp and rookie Puka Nacua excelling in Sean McVay’s creative offense.
Health is the name of the game for Stafford moving forward, but as long as he has that, he absolutely can help keep the Rams in the upper part of the NFC.
2024 Projections – 4,253 passing yards, 27 TDs, 13 INTs
7. Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
2023 Stats – 4,516 passing yards, 36 passing TDs, 9 INTs
The dysfunction of the Dallas Cowboys continues to overshadow just how good Dak Prescott has been, especially last season. Having thrown for the second-most yards and second-most TDs in a season in ‘23, Prescott is looking to keep that hot streak going.
The weapons around Prescott will play a huge part in how successful he is this season, especially with the rushing attack not likely carrying its weight. CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jake Ferguson will need to do the heavy lifting in the passing game, and Prescott will need to again shoulder a huge load to help this team forget about its disastrous postseason showing.
2024 Projections – 4,453 passing yards, 31 TDs, 14 INTs
6. CJ Stroud – Houston Texans
2023 Stats – 4,108 passing yards, 23 passing TDs, 5 INTs
The sexy pick for 2024 NFL MVP is CJ Stroud, who produced a sparkling rookie campaign with the Houston Texans last season. With the offense being built around the Ohio State rookie (especially by acquiring Stefon Diggs), the sky's the limit for both Houston and its QB.
Throwing for over 4K yards in his rookie season is impressive, and Stroud will look to once again play a huge factor in his team’s success. While not yet on the same level as a few other AFC QBs, another impressive season like last year could elevate Stroud into that category in a year or two.
2024 Projections – 4,305 passing yards, 25 TDs, 12 INTs
5. Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Stats – 3,134 passing yards, 20 passing TDs, 7 INTs
Justin Herbert is pretty much the last remaining core piece of the offense (skill-player wise) remaining on the Los Angeles Chargers from last season, meaning this offense will have an entirely new identity. With Jim Harbaugh as his new head coach and a run-heavy outlook being put into place, Herbert’s spot on this list gets a little flimsy.
But when considering talent alone, Herbert is right up there with the best of them. While he probably won’t be given as many passing opportunities as in past seasons, Herbert should still be able to maximize the chances he does earn – but be aware.
2024 Projections – 3,568 passing yards, 23 TDs, 10 INTs
4. Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
2023 Stats – 2,309 passing yards, 15 passing TDs, 6 INTs
Hoping to suit up for a full season in 2024, Joe Burrow gets to learn about life without offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who is now in Tennessee. With Tee Higgins unhappy about not receiving a contract extension and Joe Mixon in Houston, the responsibilities for this offense look to once again fall to Burrow.
Granted, Burrow has proven he can carry this team, but only he can take them so far. A fully-healthy Burrow could absolutely lead the NFL in major passing metrics this season, but that heavily relies on his offensive line, which has improved but remains a question mark.
2024 Projections – 4,014 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, 10 INTs
3. Josh Allen – Buffalo Bills
2023 Stats – 4,306 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, 18 INTs, 524 rushing yards, 18 rushing TDs
Similar to Herbert’s situation, Josh Allen saw all of his receivers leave this offseason, as Diggs is with the Texans and Davis is in Jacksonville. While he did receive a new weapon in Keon Coleman, the trio of Coleman/Curtis Samuel/Khalil Shakir certainly doesn’t instill a ton of confidence.
Instead, the offense likely will rely on Allen’s legs, as well as James Cook and Dalton Kincaid, to shoulder the load. At his best, Allen is untouchable as the top QB in the NFL – but this season will be a big-time test for the former Wyoming prospect.
2024 Projections – 3,956 passing yards, 26 TDs, 16 INTs, 705 rushing yards, 8 rushing TDs
2. Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens
2023 Stats – 3,678 passing yards, 24 passing TDs, 7 INTs, 821 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs
On the cusp of finally reaching his first Super Bowl, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens smell blood in the water. With an even stronger rushing attack (Derrick Henry) and a retooled defense, there are few things standing in Jackson’s way.
Jackson’s connection with Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers hopefully will get a full slate of 17 games this season, which would do wonders for Jackson’s standing in our NFL QB Power Rankings. Getting out of a tough AFC North division and finally getting earning a Super Bowl berth would be pretty much all it would take for Jackson to earn his spot at the top of this list.
2024 Projections – 3,703 passing yards, 26 TDs, 8 INTs, 685 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs
1. Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
2023 Stats – 4,183 passing yards, 27 passing TDs, 14 INTs
But for the meantime, and without any surprise, Patrick Mahomes remains the top quarterback, both in the league and our NFL QB Power Rankings. Not having a true WR1 hasn’t seemed to bother Mahomes, who will continue to do whatever he needs to do for this team to win.
Mahomes will be tasked with maximizing Travis Kelce, rookie Xavier Worthy, and whoever else wants to actually play football for Kansas City this season. There would need to be a drastic shift in Mahomes’ play to dictate a change at the top of our NFL QB Power Rankings, so it’s safe to say his standing is quite solid moving forward.
2024 Projections – 4,297 passing yards, 30 passing TDs, 15 INTs
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