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Assuming they can hold off the Seattle Mariners, the Houston Astros will head back to the postseason in 2024. With Justin Verlander back on the mound and Kyle Tucker seemingly on his way back, Houston has the makings of another team that can make a deep run.
The scary part is the Astros have so much more than the All-Star who have helped them to seven consecutive appearances in the American League Championship series.
They'll need all the help they can get, too. The Astros' September schedule has a mix of contenders and non-contenders in it, giving them plenty of potential pitfalls as they look to wrap up the AL West. It will culminate with a three-game set against the Mariners to conclude their home schedule from September 23 to 25.
With four weeks left in the regular season, the Astros can find contributions from some unlikely sources — ones that can keep playing a role well into October.
Hunter Brown can make the Astros' rotation elite
With Verlander back in the fold, the Astros should have a postseason veteran ready to anchor the rotation in the postseason. He'll join Ronel Blanco and Framber Valdez to make a formidable front three.
But don't sell Hunter Brown short. As Verlander gets back into his groove after missing most of the season, the 25-year-old Brown is on a roll. After a dismal start to the season, Brown has pitched to a 1.96 ERA in 15 starts since June 8. Part of that is due to the increased use of his sinker against righties, which is nearing a 50% usage rate. Brown is also finding more success with his cutter, with opponents hitting .229 against the pitch.
“He knows that he is a guy we’re going to rely on and he’s a guy we want to go deep into games,” manager Joe Espada told MLB.com's Brian McTaggert after Brown pitched the Astros to a win over the White Sox in August. “He knows he’s got ace stuff. It just takes time for a young pitcher to believe that and work through some of that. That’s part of being young. You want to get everyone out and you want everyone to make plays behind you. I get it. I want that also, but it takes time. Hunter is starting to figure out, ‘If I give up a soft single or something happens behind me, I can get somebody out.’”
Jeremy Pena is capable of catching fire
Few players had a better start to the 2024 season than Jeremy Pena. The Astros shortstop hit .345 over his first 39 games, indicating he may be ready to take the leap from the young talent who was the 2022 World Series MVP as a rookie to an established All-Star. It hasn't been quite as easy since (95 games, .243 BA), but he enters the first full week of September on a positive note with five hits in his last 16 at bats. It's a minuscule sample, yes. It's also two weeks removed from a .448 mid-August tear in which he hit .448 with a 1.260 OPS over seven games.
Despite Pena's past heroics on the sport's biggest stage, it's easy to overlook him in a lineup that also includes the slugger Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and soon Tucker. That only masks his importance to the batting order. As a team, the Astros hit lefties and righties relatively the same, but Pena has excelled against left-handed pitchers (.302 BA, .814 OPS). He's also hit better in RBI-producing situations. He's batting .300 with runners in scoring position and .279 with runners on. And as Pena goes, so do the Astros. In wins, he's hitting .301 with an .813 OPS. In losses, he's at .237 with an OPS of .606.
Jason Heyward might be the most significant post-deadline acquisition in baseball
New Astro Jason Heyward has appeared in only four games since Houston picked him up in the last week of August. The team needed some outfield depth and Heyward provides a veteran presence, theoretically capable bat, and Gold Glove-level defense.
The Astros have used him as a late-inning replacement twice and started him twice. At worst, he's a bench player who can tighten up the defense in the 8th and ninth inning. At best, the change in scenery can help him move on from a rough season for the Los Angeles Dodgers and help him rediscover his form from a 2023 season in which he hit for an .813 OPS. He has only had six at bats for the Astros since coming over and his lone hit plated two runs in a 6-3 win over the Royals on August 29.
