The NFL is enjoyable because of unpredictable outcomes. If everyone knew which teams would make the playoffs, they wouldn't care about the 17-week regular season. While analysts and fans believe most of last year's playoff teams should return to the postseason, several franchises are in for a rude awakening.
After making the playoffs last season, the following three teams will experience down years and miss the postseason.
3. Houston Texans
Houston took care of Deshaun Watson this weekend, signing the Clemson product to a four-year, $160 million extension. As long as the Texans have Watson, the team can win ten games and make the playoffs. However, Houston's organization made some costly mistakes this offseason.
General Manager and Head Coach Bill O'Brien made Laremy Tunsil the highest-paid left tackle in NFL history. Tunsil makes $22 million annually on his new deal. No other left tackle even makes $17 million in annual salary. Houston overpaid for a tackle who hasn't even earned an All-Pro selection during his four-year career.
O'Brien shot his team in the foot by trading DeAndre Hopkins, a three-time consecutive First-Team All-Pro, and a fourth-round pick to Arizona. In return, Houston got David Johnson, a fourth-rounder, and a second-round selection. It's one of the worst trades in recent NFL history.
O'Brien acquired a washed-up running back on a horrible contract for a top-ten offensive player and didn't even get a first-round pick. In comparison, Minnesota got a first-round pick from Buffalo for Stefon Diggs, who hasn't even made a Pro Bowl appearance.
Outside of Watson, Zach Cunningham, and a potentially healthy J.J. Watt, Houston's team screams of mediocrity. Poor offensive line play and hopeless mismanagement could derail the Texans in 2020.
2. Tennessee Titans
After a rough start to 2019 with Marcus Mariota at quarterback, the Titans turned to Ryan Tannehill. The former eighth overall pick assumed the starting role in Week 7 and led Tennessee on a 7-3 run to finish the season. With a 9-7 record, the Titans claimed the final Wild Card spot and punched their tickets to the playoffs.
Everyone expected Tennessee to lose in the Wild Card Round. Instead, Mike Vrabel's team outsmarted Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in a 20-13 victory. The Titans kept their streak going in the Divisional Round, picking apart the top seed Baltimore Ravens.
Tennessee's 28-12 dismantling of Baltimore put the NFL on notice, but the Titans couldn't get past Patrick Mahomes in the Conference Championship. Vrabel's squad came within one game of challenging the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. However, the Titans don't have favorable chances of making the playoffs in 2020.
Last year, Tennessee relied heavily on Tannehill's efficiency. The former Dolphin set single-season career bests in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdown to interception ratio. The chances of him matching those marks over a full 16-game NFL season are slim to none.
Derrick Henry carried most of Tennessee's offensive load last year, but his production isn't sustainable. We've seen plenty of running backs, like Jordan Howard and DeMarco Murray, come crashing back to Earth after several productive seasons. That's why the 49ers are so successful with their running back by committee approach. Most running backs can't take the wear and tear of heavy offensive burdens over multiple years in the NFL.
The Titans put together a good run last year, but they can't maintain their offensive performance. Even in the weak AFC South, Tennessee will come up short of a playoff berth in 2020.
1. New England Patriots
Losing Tom Brady hurt, but signing Cam Newton eased some of the pain. Assuming Newton returns to his 2018 form, the Patriots still hoped to make the playoffs in their weak division. Having eight players opt-out of the upcoming season killed that opportunity.
Multiple NFL teams had three players opt-out, and the Cleveland Browns even had five players decide against participating. However, no team even approached New England's eight opt-outs. Several of those were starters, including Marcus Cannon, Patrick Chung, and Dont'a Hightower. Losing those players on short notice during an abbreviated preseason is a worst-case scenario for the Patriots.
New England began trending in the wrong direction last year. The team lacked offensive weapons, and the defense got exposed several times during the season's second half. No wonder the Patriots lost to the younger, hungrier Titans in the Wild Card Round.
Free agency also did a number on Belichick's team. Linebackers Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy found new homes. Defensive tackle Danny Shelton joined Collins in Detroit while center Ted Karras and special teamer Nate Ebner jumped ship too. New England even cut kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who recently signed with the Titans.
No NFL team ever matched the dominant run New England is finishing. The Patriots won the AFC East in 19 of the past 24 seasons and haven't missed the playoffs since 2008. Fortunately for the rest of the NFL, it seems like New England's reign of dominance is at an end.
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