Let's look at the Atlanta Falcons in the early stages of the NFL offseason. What will happen for a franchise which has the skill-position talent but hasn't been the same since losing to the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2017 NFL postseason, with Steve Sarkisian coordinating their offense?
Falcons Priorities: Get Under the Cap
Despite having a 4-12 roster, the Falcons aren’t working with a lot of cap space. At the moment, they’re sitting $2.7 million over the cap, and have barely dipped their toes in the free agent waters. They have the 3rd least amount of 2022 cap space, so they’ll want to avoid pushing more contracts into the future. Releasing veterans like Deadrin Senat, Ito Smith, and Elliott Fry would would save 3.3 million dollars. These moves would also only incur 360k worth of dead cap, a very manageable number. If they fail to get under the cap (they will, but hypothetically lets say they don't) , the executives would be fined millions of dollars, and the franchise would most likely lose their top draft picks.
Falcons will extend Calvin Ridley
Calvin Ridley emerged as one of the top wide receivers in the league, finishing the 2020 season with over 1300 yards and 9 TDs and proving that he could be a legit WR1 without Julio to draw attention. It would be wise to extend Ridley sooner rather than later, and with each passing season he's doing nothing but getting more expensive. An extension would also likely cost less than a franchise tag, and they’ll need every penny to turn the team around in the next few years. Ridley is clearly thinking about the deal, too. Under a tweet questioning whether the Falcons would exercise his 5th year option, Ridley replied “Might as well extend I'm ready lol.”
They draft Trey Lance
Trading Matt Ryan next offseason would save the Falcons $8 million against the cap. If he can play decent football this year, the Falcons would probably be able to flip him for a first round pick, maybe multiple depending on how he plays. I mean, the Lions got three for Matthew Stafford after a somewhat down season. Trey Lance is only 20 years old, and could use a year to develop behind Ryan. Lance is the best running QB in the draft, and has an high level arm. He has Josh Allen type potential, but will likely need a little bit of time to adjust after playing just a handful of games at the D2 level. A year behind Ryan, and then getting to throw to Julio and Ridley with Arthur Smith calling the plays is the best case scenario for Lance to reach his MVP potential, and they’d also have more cap and picks to build around him after the Ryan trade.
They keep Julio Jones
Julio has been involved in some trade rumors recently, and given the Falcons cap space situation, his age, and recent injury history, it makes some sense. However, if they follow step 3 and draft Lance, Julio is someone you want to keep in the building. When healthy, Julio was still one of the best wideouts in the league in 2020, posting the lowest drop % of his career, his highest yards per target of his career, and posted monster games against the Seahawks, Vikings, and Panthers. Ridley and Julio are perhaps the best WR duo in the league right now. Situation matters for a young QB, talent gets wasted on teams with no help. Keeping Julio and Ridley together through the end of Julio’s contract would do wonders for Lance’s career. Giving him the safest of safety valves as he figures out NFL life.
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