The Milwaukee Bucks were the Eastern Conference favorites last season before they got stunned by the Miami Heat in the second round of the playoffs. They were the best team in the whole league during last regular season, but they had a historic playoff collapse. Despite that collapse, the Bucks should still be considered a favorite in the Eastern Conference this season led by Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks currently sit third in the Eastern Conference standings with a 34-20 record. However, the Bucks are first in the Eastern Conference in terms of net rating, +6.5. They are an elite two-way team, playing at a similar level defensively as they did last year. The Bucks are perhaps in the best spot they have been in to win a championship.
Reason #1) New-Found Versatility
The Bucks had a major issue with versatility last season. They won in one way and only one way on both sides of the ball. They were a drop team on defense who couldn't switch at all. This hurts their ability to guard pull-up shooting or players who could shoot off-movement. Offensively, they relied solely upon a fast-break offense headed by Giannis Antetokounmpo. They struggled to score in the half-court and it limited their utility in the playoffs.
The Bucks have made a few additions that help them with the versatility issue on both ends. The first big one is Jrue Holiday. Jrue makes a huge difference for the Bucks on both ends. He is another half-court creator next to Khris Middleton and Giannis and he is a switchable defender. More important to the switchability is the addition of mobile bigs PJ Tucker and Bobby Portis. Tucker and Portis can both play next to Giannis effectively, space the floor, and defend on the perimeter, giving the Bucks an extra element.
Reason #2) Who Guards Giannis?
This seems like an odd question to ask considering the outcome of last year's playoffs, but it makes some sense this year. The Heat face a real uphill battle if they want to play the Bucks at any point in the playoffs and they were the team with the perfect personnel to guard Milwaukee. With the Heat lower in the standings, the Bucks will struggle to be guarded by any other top teams.
The Brooklyn Nets will struggle more than anyone else to guard the Bucks. They have no one to match up with Giannis in the post or on the break and they don't have the bodies to build a wall as the Raptors did in the 2019 playoffs. the 76ers have Ben Simmons, who can give Giannis trouble, but they don't play great transition defense and a weak defender will almost certainly have to be on one of Brook Lopez, Giannis, Middleton, or Holiday and that will create a solid mismatch for the Bucks to exploit.
Reason #3) The Jrue Holiday Effect
Jrue Holiday was an excellent addition for the Bucks this past offseason. Holiday does everything you could want from a third star on a championship team. He is an elite defender in isolation and at the point of attack, he can shoot spot-ups at a reasonable clip, and he can run a competent offense as a point guard.
Jrue Holiday’s playmaking ability has added an extra element to the Bucks’ potent offense! #NBABreakdown
BUCKS/HAWKS – Tonight at 7:30pm/et on TNT pic.twitter.com/NfSbKjcB1b
— NBA (@NBA) April 15, 2021
Holiday fundamentally changes the Bucks on both ends of the ball and he boosts them to a championship-caliber team. Holiday will allow them to switch in the crunch time and he can guard the best opposing player, whether they be a guard or a wing. Few NBA players have ever given James Harden and Kevin Durant the trouble that Jrue gives them. Offensively, he perfectly fills the role of a third star. He can run high-level pick and rolls with Giannis and Lopez while also stretching the floor when those two or Middleton go to work. His two-way flexibility is extremely valuable and turns the Bucks from a fringe contender to a legit one.
Reason #4) Learning From the Past
It can be often overlooked that the Bucks are a relatively young team compared to many contenders. This season is really only their second with any real expectations and they would do well to learn from last year's mistakes. They were shown exactly what they're likely to deal with in their series with the Heat and they will have to adjust to that type of competition this season.
The Heat were a versatile defensive group and they gave Giannis a lot of trouble. Mike Budenholzer will have to scheme more varied touches and not just run four-out, top of the key isolations for him. Jrue Holiday gives them an offensive element that Eric Bledsoe didn't last year and they will have to take advantage of that luxury. They also refused to mix up their defensive coverage, even when the drop was being abused by the Heat's shooting. The Bucks will need to be willing to switch more on defense and run more experimental line-ups out there. The Bucks could very well end up champions by the end of the season, but they will have to learn from past mistakes.
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