The Los Angeles Lakers have one of the most important free agency periods in the franchise's history coming this summer. Pulling off a successful free agency could set the Lakers up to be an elite team and a playoff contender for the next five years and beyond. Much of the work ahead depends on the decision newly-minted general manager and president of basketball operations, Rob Pelinka and Magic Johnson, will make on whether to build around their young core or push towards acquiring stars to accelerate the team's development.
The new Lakers execs have made it no secret where their hearts lie, they have been pushing to clear enough cap space to bring on two star-caliber players who can elevate the team's play and thrust the Lakers directly into playoff contention. At times, this attitude has proven unsettling for the team's current roster. Players have expressed frustration and anxiety over the front office's liberal stance towards trading the team's players, especially Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance, the three mainstays from the Kobe Bryant days who are lined up on the trading block. The benefits of bringing in superstars are obvious. Players like LeBron James and Paul George would instantly change the fabric of this team, providing a young roster with a franchise-changing combination of veteran leadership, elite play-making, and professionalism.
Adding two superstars would provide the same benefits on another order of magnitude, unquestionably thrusting this team into playoff contention. There are downsides to gunning for star players. This off-season has a fairly shallow free agent pool. If the Lakers strike out on stars like Paul George, Boogie and LeBron, they could be left empty-handed and scrambling to shape together a competitive roster before trying again next year and hoping for more success. However, there are few teams in the league with the cap space to pursue superstars and no others that can offer the vision of connecting two superstars together.
Before we start looking at trades, let's review the Lakers cap situation. Brook Lopez, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Corey Brewer and Julius Randle are all expiring players next year, clearing up about $52 million of cap space. Ivica Zubac, Thomas Bryant and Tyler Ennis are on non-guaranteed deals and can be waived this off-season giving a further $4.6 million in cap space. The Lakers would be looking at just over $49 million in salaries for the 18-19 season with the NBA's projected cap space at $101 million. The team would need about $65 million to sign two max-level players meaning that more moves must be made.
The first decision the Lakers will have to look into is Luol Deng. Deng is 32 and making $18 million per year through to the 19-20 season. No matter what strategy the Lakers decide on, it's clear that Deng is not part of that future. Luol stays away from the team for the most part and doesn't play in any games. At his age and level of money, no team is interested in trading for him unless the Lakers attach a quality asset, which they're unlikely but not unwilling to do. The easy solution is to use the stretch provision. With the stretch provision, the Lakers can turn Deng's $36.8 million over two years into $36.8 million over five years. The Lakers would wind up paying $7.36 million per year instead of $18 million giving them $62.31 in cap space.
The Lakers are also looking at trading Jordan Clarkson, he's on a reasonable contract making around $13 million for eac of the next two years, that would free up further cap space for the team to add their stars and a few supporting players to complement existing young core. Let's take a look at some potential trades that the Lakers can pursue to clear up cap space for their big off-season and find assets that align with their vision.
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#5 – Lakers trade: Julius Randle
Brooklyn Nets trade: Raptors 2018 1st round draft pick and Quincy Acy
Sean Marks has been working tirelessly to acquire draft picks and young assets, taking on Demarre Carroll's contract from the Raptors the last off-season to acquire their 2018 1st round draft pick. While a draft pick is a highly coveted prize for a team that has kept so few of their draft picks in recent years, Julius Randle represents an even better prize.
At 6'9 250 pounds, the 23-year-old Randle is an excellent mobile big man to pair with the Nets' emerging guard and wing talent. He is one of the best bigs in the league at switching onto perimeter players and should pair well with Jarrett Allen, Brooklyn's shot-blocking big, as a defensive pairing once Allen becomes more experienced. What's more is that Randle is a hustle player and plays hard everytime he's on the court, a perfect fit for Brooklyn's Kenny Atkinson who consistently demands maximum effort from his players. The trade also reunites Randle with D'Angelo Russell from their Laker days, two players that had an excellent rapport with each other. Julius Randle is simply a great fit for the team's young core and a skilled player who would immediately help shore up the Nets' limited frontcourt rotation. Randle will be a restricted free agent this year so the Nets will be able to make a fair offer to him or let the market decide how much he is worth. In the meantime, the Nets could also use their cap space to lock in 1-2 more rotation players before paying Randle's contract.
On the Lakers side, this trade is about recovering value for Randle. Julius has expressed frustration over his situation this past year with the way the front office has constantly and callously dangled him as trade bait. While Randle would probably be placated this off-season if he is retained in free agency and survives the Lakers cap cutting, it might be best just to find a trade to part ways with the young big instead of potentially losing him for nothing this summer. Randle's restricted free agent status is both a blessing and a curse for the Lakers. On one hand, teams like his RFA status because they can be assured to keep Randle in the event that they pursue a trade. On the other hand, teams could also just send him an offer sheet this summer without giving up any assets to acquire him. Faced with this reality, the Lakers won't be able to get any mega offers for Randle and should settle for any young assets or picks that they can get. Brooklyn's pick from the Toronto Raptors this year would give the Lakers a late first round pick to add a young player to their team. According to tankathon.com, the pick is currently projected to be 27th in this year's draft. The pick will likely end up as a bottom 5 pick for the rest of the season given the Raptors excellent play thus far and their easier schedule for the rest of the season. With the pick, the Lakers could select a mobile big man like Mitchell Robinson or Chimezie Metu to complement their young team. In the interim, Quincy Acy gives the Lakers a veteran big on an expiring contract who can temporarily fill the gap left by Julius Randle's departure.
#4 – Lakers trade: Julius Randle
Chicago Bulls trade: Denzel Valentine
Another player that the Lakers could pursue to recover trade value for Randle is Denzel Valentine from the Chicago Bulls. The 6'6 24-year-old shooting guard from Chicago is a promising young prospect who does a little bit of everything and shoots the three ball well. So far this year, Valentine is averaging 9.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.0 apg and shoots 39.1% from three in 28 minutes. Although Denzel doesn't look like a star in the making, he would play a critical role for the team, providing depth at the shooting guard and small forward positions and drawing occasional spot starts. Valentine's shooting ability would pair well with Lonzo's passing and his familiarity with a pace and space style offense under Chicago's Hoiberg will help him integrate into Luke Walton's system. What will be critical for the Lakers this off-season is finding depth at their wing positions. With Caldwell-Pope and Corey Brewer leaving the team this summer, LA will need to find a shooting guard who can come off the bench if the team gets their free agent stars or potentially start if they strike out on free agents altogether. Valentine fits the bill and his $2.2 million dollar contract next year won't be a serious impediment to the team's free agency goals.
For the Chicago Bulls, this trade would give them an excellent big to add to this team's young core. Julius Randle would be an excellent fit next to Lauri Markkanen in the front court, doing the dirty work for the team (rebounding, boxing out) while enjoying the spacing provided by Markkanen's elite three-point shooting. Moreover, Randle is a strong pick and roll option to pair with Kris Dunn's play-making, giving them another mobile rim running weapon to use in their high-powered pace-and-space offense. Together with Kris Dunn, Zach Lavine, Lauri Markkanen and their early first-round pick in this year's draft, Julius Randle would help form a competitive young core to bring Chicago back to playoff contention.
#3 – Lakers trade: Jordan Clarkson and Thomas Bryant
Detroit Pistons trade: Avery Bradley and Anthony Tolliver
Detroit is currently 22nd in the league in bench scoring. Since losing Reggie Jackson to injury and starting Ish Smith, the Pistons have struggled to find a winning combination in their second unit. Moreover, this team is over the salary cap and is going to have trouble finding the space to add any significant talent to their team this off-season. While Avery Bradley has been a decent player for the team, his contract expires after this year. Bradley is 27 and definitely looking for a bigger payday than the Pistons can afford. Jordan Clarkson is a great solution to the team's bench scoring woes and cap constraints. By trading for Clarkson, Detroit would be adding a dynamic scorer to energize their bench unit. Clarkson's ability to get to the basket and finish around the rim would instantly add a scoring punch to a second unit that lacks the dribble penetration needed to shift the defense. His play should be beneficial for Luke Kennard's 3-point shooting and should benefit from Ish Smith's playmaking abilities once Reggie Jackson returns to the starting lineup. On a side note, Clarkson is going to be miserable leaving sunny model-filled LA behind for the clutches of Detroit. With Jon Leuer out for the season, the addition of Thomas Bryant would add a bench big who might be able to help soak up the backup minutes left by Anthony Tolliver's departure. If the Pistons don't like what they see from Bryant, they can cut his non-guaranteed contract in the summer for limited downside.
For the Lakers, this move is purely about clearing cap space. By shedding Clarkson's $12.5 million dollar contract, the team opens up the possibility of achieving their cap-clearing goal. Avery Bradley and Anthony Tolliver's deals will expire this off-season, giving the Lakers the room to potentially sign two superstars to their team. In the short term, however, Bradley and Tolliver are important pieces to help maintain the Lakers' competitive standing in the league. While the team is preparing to pitch superstars on coming to LA to accelerate the franchise's development, the Lakers need to be able to show that it can meaningfully assemble a competitive team around the stars.
Bradley and Tolliver won't be a part of the team's future, but they will be needed to elevate the Lakers' record this year so that Magic and Pelinka can show free agents that the Lakers are on a reasonable path to contention and not simply languishing in the bottom of the league's standings. Bradley brings defensive tenacity and three-point shooting (40.2% from behind the line this year) to a team that desperately needs both. As an off-ball guard, Bradley can thrive off Lonzo's playmaking and allows the team to both install a better decision maker at shooting guard and reduce their reliance on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Anthony Tolliver, on the other hand, is here primarily to match salaries in the trade and shore up the team's frontcourt rotation. If this trade is executed along with a Julius Randle move, the team will need Tolliver to help soak up backup big man minutes in the interim. Tolliver is a wily veteran who should be able to start contributing immediately to the team. The two veterans should be easy to integrate into the team's hierarchy and will get the opportunity to show their skills on one of the league's biggest stages for the upcoming free agency while providing veteran leadership for a young Lakers team.
#2 – Lakers trade: Jordan Clarkson
Atlanta Hawks trade: Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova and the Houston Rockets 1st round pick
The Lakers could potentially look at a similar Jordan Clarkson trade with Atlanta to clear cap space and bring in short-term veteran help. Swapping Clarkson for Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova would give the Lakers two smart veteran players on expiring deals to add to their team. Belinelli and Ilyasova are both plug and play type veterans that should be able to immediately contribute to the Lakers. Both are good three-point shooters who can move off-ball and work off Lonzo's passing. Despite the limited volume, their free throw shooting should also help a team that is dead last in the league with an atrocious 69.5% free throw percentage. The Lakers will also get Houston's first-round pick in this deal, currently projected to be 28th, similar to the Toronto Raptors pick in the Brooklyn trade above. Having a first rounder allows the Lakers to draft a young player to their core to replace the production left by Clarkson in the off-season. Again, the chief benefit here is cap space. Clearing Clarkson's $12.5 million contract puts them well on target to pursue two superstars this summer.
For Atlanta, this trade will help in two ways. In spite of Mike Budenholzer's phenomenal coaching, Atlanta likely has the least talented roster in the entire league. The Hawks run a democratized offense like the Spurs but the team has a noticeable dearth of playmakers. Often, Dennis Schroder is relied on to execute much of the playmaking. Outside of Schroder, the Hawks don't have another player who can get their own shot, shift the defense or create for other players in a pinch. Adding Clarkson would bring in a scorer for the team who can be counted on to create his own shot where it counts. He's not a playmaker and isn't great at setting up other teammates but JC adds another scoring option to a team that needs a shot creator. Jordan Clarkson projects to come off the bench for the Hawks where he can be staggered with Schroder to have a ballhandler on the court at all times but the Hawks can also spot start him to give the team a different look with both Clarkson and Schroder on the court together playing off each other much in the same way Clarkson used to with D'Angelo Russell. Losing Belinelli and Ilyasova likely further depresses Atlanta's record, putting them in a great position to secure a top 3 pick in this year's star-studded draft.
#1 – Lakers trade: Julius Randle and Tyler Ennis
Dallas Mavericks trade: Nerlens Noel, Seth Curry and the Mavericks 2019 second round draft
Dallas and LA have already hosted talks this season about a trade centered around Julius Randle and Nerlens Noel. Rick Carlisle praised Randle, a Dallas area native, for his tremendous play when the two teams matched up this year. The Lakers big would be a strong fit for a Mavericks team forced to run a ragtag frontcourt rotation that includes heavy minutes for Max Kleber, Dwight Powell and Salah Mjeri. Consolidating those minutes in Julius Randle would give the Mavericks a rim-running big man who can see minutes at both the power forward and center positions unlocking more rotation flexibility for Carlisle. Randle's aggressive style of play would juxtapose well with Dirk and his abilities in the pick-and-roll would give Dennis Smith Jr. a competent roller who can attack the rim off the pass. Tyler Ennis is primarily added to this deal to balance salary but he gives the Mavericks a look at a competent guard on a non-guaranteed deal who the Mavs can cut to preserve cap space.
Carlisle already has a stable of point guards between Dennis Smith Jr., JJ Barea, Yogi Ferrell and Devin Harris so Ennis would be hard pressed to find opportunity on the team. Still, Carlisle has run some unconventional two point guard lineups for a team without a reliable backup shooting guard so Ennis could conceivably carve out some form of playing time as a backup two guard, similar to Seth Curry's role, despite his limited shooting range. Regardless, even if he can't, the Mavericks don't lose much in the process.
Swapping bigs would give the Lakers a look at a young big in Nerlens Noel who has landed firmly out of Carlisle's rotation. At 6'11 228 pounds, Noel profiles as a mobile shot-blocking big who has the potential to anchor a team's defense. Thus far in his career, Noel has not lived up to that potential but he is under pressure to perform ahead of a critical free agency period after choosing to sign a qualifying offer in pursuit of a max level deal. On the Lakers, Nerlens will have every opportunity to prove that he belongs as soon as he returns from surgery on his thumb in early February. Another reason for trading for Nerlens Noel is because he shares an agent with LeBron James. Rich Paul, their mutual agent, is a longtime friend of James and a member of LeBron's inner circle of advisers. Paul likely exerts a lot of influence in LeBron's free agency decision-making and the Lakers could benefit from every ounce of favor they can curry from Rich Paul.
The Lakers would also acquire Mavericks guard Seth Curry in this trade to get a look at the younger Curry brother. Seth has sat out the entire season thus far due to a stress reaction in his left tibia and might not return to the court until February at the earliest. Much like his brother, Seth has mind-bending shooting ability which can change the fabric of a defense. He's not the best play-maker in the world which makes him better as an off-ball threat than ball-handler but Seth could give the Lakers an interesting option at both guard spots once he returns. With Seth on an expiring deal, the Lakers would get a risk-free opportunity to look at him before deciding what to do in the off-season. Dallas' 2018 second rounder also provides an opportunity to add a bench player for the Lakers at a low cost.
Preparing for the Future
Magic Johnson and Rob Pelinka have the young Los Angeles Lakers in a risky bid to acquire two superstars this summer. As a prominent big-market team, the team offers an attractive destination and the unique ability to pair two big-name stars to play together with a young promising core. Despite the public attention on his shooting woes, Lonzo Ball has shown that he has a tremendous all-around skill-set that elevates a team's performance. The Lakers look like a completely different team when he's on the court. Pairing Ball with the talents of Brandon Ingram and Kyle Kuzma provides LA with an exciting young core to build around. The trade possibilities here help LA clear the cap space they need to pursue their ambitious off-season plans while recouping value for their young trade pieces in Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle. For all the likeliness that LA pushes to trade their pieces before the deadline, it's also possible that the Lakers decide to stand pat until the off-season.
What remains to be seen is how the Lakers' new front office will execute their free agency strategy this summer. Despite, their clear interest and drive to usher in a new era of Lakers basketball, Magic has preached that they will be conservative with their cap space if they strike out on their top targets. Regardless, this summer will be a wild ride and pivotal in deciding the future of the Los Angeles Lakers franchise.
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