The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat will duke it out in the 2024 NBA Play-In Tournament for a chance at being the Eastern Conference's seventh seed in the NBA playoffs. Both sides are familiar with one another and will be eager to punch their ticket to the first round.
The Sixers are the superior team to the Heat with Joel Embiid in the fold but Jimmy Butler’s squad has overcome underdog status too many times to be fully counted out. And although Embiid is expected to play, he still only has five games under his belt after returning from a two-month-long absence. Continuing to get back into game shape against this Heat squad, especially in a postseason setting, is like getting back into running with a few jogs around the neighborhood and then a marathon.
Ahead of what should be a hard-fought game, here are bold predictions for the 76ers' play-in game against the Heat.
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Kelly Oubre Jr. scores 25 points for 76ers
The Heat are undoubtedly going to try to make it as hard as possible for Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to score. On top of trying to gunk up the Sixers' offense with their world-renowned zone defense, Miami is bound to send multiple defenders to Embiid and Maxey throughout the game, going as hard as they can to keep them off their rhythm.
The Embiid-Maxey two-man game worked pretty well in the last Sixers-Heat matchup, especially with Embiid upping his three-point volume since his return. But they’re going to need someone else to step up and score, too. No player in the rotation is better suited for that than Oubre.
Kelly Oubre Jr., whose 15.4 points per game rank fourth on the 76ers, has never seen an open lane that he didn’t like. Just as much as that could hurt the 76ers in a single-game setting, it could also be the grease to their wheels on the road to victory.
The athletic, 6-foot-6 wing is always eager to challenge defenses. With his ability to put the ball on the deck and attack the rim on top of hitting the spot-up threes that Maxey or Embiid create, he will undoubtedly be aggressive when his chances come. If the shots fall and he continues to tap into his playmaking improvements, he could be in for a big night.
Kyle Lowry and Nico Batum – the veterans who can shoot, defend, and make the little plays that add up over time – will probably be more impactful and/or important for the Sixers than Oubre. But the team will still need scoring beyond its two stars. While Embiid and Maxey are the main engines for the 76ers, Oubre will have the chance to make his mark.
The Heat try to play more up-tempo
The Heat may run into a lot of problems trying to score on the Sixers in the halfcourt. The lack of spacing between Butler and Bam Adebayo will be exacerbated by Embiid and the absence of Terry Rozier. They aren’t a good offensive-rebounding team, so second-chance points could be scarce. Unless one of their shooters gets on a heater, turning to the fast break may be their best chance to score.
The Heat have been one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA for years now, so turning on the jets would be a change of pace for them just as much philosophically as it would literally. But they’ll have to be ready to do anything to beat the Embiid-led Sixers. The self-declared best-conditioned team in the league may have to put its money where its mouth is.
Miami and Philadelphia have played each other four times this season but only once did a matchup feature Embiid and Butler. That game, which the Sixers won 109-105, saw the Heat come super close to the 100th percentile in transition points per 100 possessions and frequency of transition plays. They ran a lot and made the most of those opportunities, allowing them to make it a game despite a putrid 76.5 offensive rating in the halfcourt.
Nikola Jovic did a nice job filling the lane in that game. Long, fluid athletes like him and Adebayo along with the Heat's plethora of shooters are ingredients that could form a well-balanced fast-break attack. They won’t have to deal with Embiid's rim protection in the halfcourt if they can score on fast breaks (or at least early in the shot clock) before he gets set up.
Embiid should be in better shape this time around, though. He had a few extra days to rest to end the regular season and did play a few more games after facing the Heat, which was just the second game of his return. But he is still trying to get his conditioning back on track. The Heat taking advantage of that would be diabolical — but that’s precisely why it could be a part of their game plan.
Joel Embiid records first postseason triple-double
Since play-in stats don’t count toward playoff stats, Embiid having a spectacular game wouldn’t help elevate his less-than-stellar playoff averages. Nonetheless, he should be way too much for the Heat to handle.
Embiid has made huge strides since then and, even with his conditioning being a work in progress, those improvements shouldn’t disappear. His overall understanding of the game has grown, he's still automatic from the mid-range and he’s going to be the biggest player on the court by a considerable margin. The points and rebounds will almost certainly be there, so it'll come down to how well he can weaponize his scoring gravity by making the right pass.
Embiid's health is still a bit of an unknown due to his conditioning and the tweak to his knee he suffered in his last game (though a postgame examination didn’t reveal any damage). But what couldn’t be more certain is that Embiid is playing the absolute best basketball of his career. Barring a setback in his injury recovery, he will be ready to dominate.
Jimmy Butler leads Heat in points, rebounds, and assists
There’s no chance that Butler will let the opportunity to upset the 76ers on their home court pass him by.
As the focal point of the Heat's offense, Butler is sure to get his points and assists. Especially in the fourth quarter, Butler is going to take control and create the offense Miami needs to stay afloat. The downhill pressure he exerts on defenses allows him to draw fouls, score in the paint, make plays for perimeter shooters, and even corral offensive rebounds.
If Butler comes out of the gates ready to dominate, it could dictate who the Sixers end up playing. A physical wing who loves to hunt mismatches and score inside could lead to Buddy Hield and Cam Payne seeing very limited action. Maxey will likely have to contain Butler a few times, too, which won’t impact his minutes — the Sixers will have to play him a lot no matter what — but it could alter their game plan significantly.
At the very least, Butler will rank in the top three on the Heat in the primary box-score stats. He's going to come extra ready to play.
76ers win a close game
The Heat have a history that shows they should not be taken lightly. The version of this 76ers team led by Embiid does, too. Although the sample size is admittedly much smaller, it’s just as prevalent as (if not more than) past Miami playoff runs. This Philly team right now is straight-up better, which should be enough to come out on top.
Defensively, Embiid's presence in the paint as a shot blocker and rebounder makes things very tough for opponents. Offensively, the new system installed by Nick Nurse and the versatility of the role players around Embiid will make it harder to send extra defenders his way. He's surrounded by plenty of shooters and has the best playmaking infrastructure of his career around him with Maxey, Lowry, and Batum to get him the ball in his spots.
Additionally, the Heat can be a beast one day and just any other team the next. They were trailing with under three minutes left in the second play-in game last season after losing the first to the Atlanta Hawks. While it is true that this year's squad is better than last year's, so is the opponent they're facing — and that opponent will have a homecourt advantage.
The 76ers' record in home games with Embiid this season is 19-5. The Heat may have the pedigree of a team that rises to any challenge but, as long as Embiid is close to his best self, this one will likely be too much for them to conquer. Final score prediction: Sixers win 111-102.
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