Spain cemented their spot in the knockout stage with a victory over Italy, sitting at the top of Group B with a 2-0-0 record. Albania hopes for an upset win over an unmotivated Spain squad, but they'll also need Croatia to do them a favor and defeat Italy. It is time to continue our Euro 2024 odds series with an Albania-Spain prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

Albania is in their second Euro tournament after a very successful run in qualification. They finished top of the group, which included the Czech Republic and Poland. Albania dropped a disappointing 2-1 decision to Italy in the tournament opener after scoring the fastest goal in Euro history. They blew another lead in their game against Croatia, scoring 11 minutes in and holding on to the lead until the 74th minute. Croatia scored two goals in two minutes to take the lead, but Albania got the draw with a goal five minutes into added time.

Spain hasn't given up a goal in Euro competition yet, defeating Croatia 3-0 in the tournament opener and then Italy 1-0 on an own-goal. Spain had an eight-game unbeaten streak in international competition before dropping a disappointing match to Columbia in March. They are now on another five-game unbeaten run, winning four games in June by a combined score of 14-1. Spain looks like the team to beat at this tournament after losing in the semifinals to Italy in the 2020 Euro tournament.

Here are the 2024 Euros odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Euros Odds: Albania-Spain Odds

Albania: +600

Spain: -230

Draw: +360

Over 2.5 goals: -135

Under 2.5 goals: +105

How to Watch Albania vs. Spain

Time: 3 PM ET/noon PT


Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Albania Will Win

The big question in this game is Spain's motivation to win if they already have first-place locked up. Albania will play a direct game, and if they score a goal early like they did in the first two games, Spain may not overpress to get back into it. It'll be difficult for Albania to hold up against Spain's talent, but Spain has bigger goals than winning a meaningless game against Albania in the group stage. It'd be a hard sell for Spain if one of their top players got injured before the knockout stage. Luis De La Fuente may hold back some of his stars or use an early substitution to rest them for the group stage.

Why Spain Will Win

Spain has always taken care of Albania, winning three straight games. They won both games in 2018 World Cup qualifying and a friendly match in 2022. Spain does well against teams who don't press, making this a great matchup for them. Spain holds possession against passive teams, which is their bread and butter. They will fall later in this tournament when they play a team that presses and is more dangerous in transition, but that isn't the case here.

Final Albania-Spain Prediction & Pick

Spain will handle this game thanks to Albania's passiveness. However, Albania does begin to press when they go behind in a game. They also excel with transition offense, which can give Spain trouble. There's a scenario in this match where Spain takes a lead thanks to Albania's passiveness but then gives up a goal or two late when Albania begins to press. All we need in this match is a 2-1 Spain victory to hit the over.

The argument was made earlier that Spain could hold back in this game in preparation for the knockout stage, but the chances of that happening are slim. Rather than an Albanian upset longshot, it's better to root for the value on the over in this game.

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Final Albania-Spain Prediction & Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-135)