UFC Seattle: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer continues on the prelims with a fight between Casey O'Neill and Gabriella Fernandes in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our O'Neill-Fernandes prediction and pick.
Casey O'Neill (10-2) bounced back in a big way at UFC 305 in August 2024, earning a dominant unanimous decision over Luana Santos to snap a two-fight losing skid. Prior to that rebound, she had dropped back-to-back decisions to Jennifer Maia and Ariane da Silva. Now riding a one-fight win streak, she comes into her fight this weekend against Gabriella Fernandes.
Gabriella Fernandes (11-3) has quietly put together an impressive streak in the UFC women's flyweight division, winning three straight fights. She submitted Cong Wang via rear-naked choke in November 2024 before following it up with a unanimous decision over Julija Stoliarenko in August 2025, riding serious momentum as she comes into her fight this weekend against Casey O'Neill.
UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Seattle Odds: Casey O'Neill-Gabriella Fernandes Odds
Casey O'Neill: -108
Gabriella Fernandes: -112
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
Why Casey O'Neill Will Win
Casey O'Neill is one of the most technically refined grapplers in the UFC women's flyweight division, and her submission arsenal gives her a finishing threat that Fernandes must respect at all times. Her dominant showing over Luana Santos at UFC 305 proved she has recaptured the form that made her one of the division's most exciting prospects.
O'Neill's pressure-based grappling style is tailor-made to disrupt Fernandes' rhythm, especially against an opponent who has relied heavily on submission finishes to build her recent win streak. If O'Neill can get the fight to the mat on her terms, she holds a clear and significant grappling edge.
At 10-2, O'Neill has faced stiffer competition than Fernandes and has experience navigating adversity after her two-fight losing skid. That kind of mental toughness and experience in high-pressure situations could be the difference in the championship rounds if the fight goes the distance.
O'Neill also carries superior striking credentials, giving her multiple paths to victory that Fernandes simply cannot cover simultaneously. A fighter who can hurt you standing and submit you on the ground is an incredibly difficult puzzle to solve.
Why Gabriella Fernandes Will Win
Gabriella Fernandes enters this fight on a three-fight winning streak with serious momentum, and momentum is one of the most underrated factors in MMA. Her submission wins and decision victories show she is a well-rounded fighter capable of winning in multiple ways.
Fernandes' grappling has been razor sharp lately, and if she can impose her ground game on O'Neill, she has the submission skills to finish the fight at any moment. O'Neill has been submitted before at this level, and Fernandes is dangerous enough to make that happen again.
O'Neill's two-fight losing skid to Maia and da Silva raised real questions about how she handles adversity, and Fernandes is the kind of relentless pressure fighter who can reopen those mental wounds. A fighter still rebuilding confidence can crumble when things get difficult in the later rounds.
Fernandes also benefits from fighting on an upward trajectory, while O'Neill is still proving she has fully returned to her best form. Fighters trending upward almost always carry an intangible edge that shows up when the fight gets deep and grueling.
Fernandes has the grappling tools and the momentum to pull off a significant upset Saturday night. Her three-fight win streak is no accident, and O'Neill may not have the answers to stop her suffocating submission-heavy game plan in Seattle.
Final Casey O'Neill-Gabriella Fernandes Prediction & Pick
This women's flyweight matchup is a fascinating stylistic clash between two submission-minded grapplers who both carry real finishing ability. The key question is whether O'Neill's superior experience and striking can keep Fernandes from imposing her red-hot ground game.
Expect Fernandes to push the pace early, using her three-fight momentum to pressure O'Neill and drag the fight into deep waters. O'Neill, however, has the footwork and striking to keep things standing long enough to dictate where the fight ultimately goes.
The middle rounds will be telling, if O'Neill has successfully avoided Fernandes' submission attempts and landed clean on the feet, her conditioning and grappling pedigree should take over. Fernandes thrives when she can chain grappling sequences together, but O'Neill's awareness on the mat makes that a difficult task.
O'Neill's UFC 305 performance against Santos showed a fighter who has rediscovered her confidence and technical sharpness. That version of O'Neill is too polished and too experienced for Fernandes to handle over three full rounds.
Her superior striking and elite grappling IQ give her the edge, as she shuts down Fernandes' submission threats and controls the pace of the fight from start to finish in Seattle.
Final Casey O'Neill-Gabriella Fernandes Prediction & Pick: Casey O'Neill (-108), Over 2.5 Rounds (-260)
