After surviving a late comeback attempt from Kansas with a game-winning layup, St. John's (30-6) looks to carry its momentum into a matchup with top-seeded Duke (34-2). Already the owner of the potential top March Madness highlight of the year, the Red Storm now look to knock off the No. 1 overall seed.
Duke gave everyone a good scare in the Round of 64 when it barely escaped with a six-point win over Siena. It struggled again early against TCU before pulling away in the second half for an 81-58 victory, its 13th consecutive victory.
St. John's enters the matchup on a six-game win streak, including impressive March Madness victories over UNI and Kansas. Backup point guard Dylan Darling sent the Red Storm to their first Sweet Sixteen trip since 1999 with the highlight of the tournament and the moment of his career.
March Madness odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Duke vs. St. John's odds
Duke: -6.5 (-112)
St. John's: +6.5 (-108)
Over: 141.5 (-105)
Under: 141.5 (-115)
Duke vs. St. John's key injuries
Injuries have been a key part of Duke's early March Madness run. The Blue Devils have been without point guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba II for weeks, but they could both be active against St. John's.
While Ngongba returned for Duke's Round of 32 game against TCU, Foster remained sidelined for the fifth consecutive game. Ngongba is expected to remain in the lineup, and Foster is listed as a game-time decision. The sophomore's return would be huge for an offense that has struggled in his absence.
Foster's potential return would get both teams to 100 percent, as St. John's is not listing any key players on its injury report.
Duke vs. St. John's betting trends
- Duke is 20-16 against the spread
- Duke is 1-1 against the spread in March Madness
- Duke is 4-3 against the spread as single-digit favorite
- Duke is 12-24 to the over
- St. John's is 21-13-1 against the spread
- St. John's is 1-1 against the spread in March Madness
- St. John's is 2-1 against the spread as single-digit underdog
- St. John's is 12-23 to the over
Duke vs. St. John's matchup
Duke and St. John's are similar teams in practice with two distinct approaches. Both teams want to play through their best players in the paint while priding themselves on the defensive end.
St. John's defense has been the most disruptive of the tournament thus far, with the Red Storm picking up full-court for all 40 minutes. The pressure led to 16 forced turnovers against Kansas and has rattled each of its last two opponents into incoherent half-court offensive sets.
St. John's pressure could be an issue for Duke if Foster cannot return. The point guard's absence has noticeably lowered the Blue Devils' offensive ceiling — they are averaging just 74.8 points per game in their last four outings without Foster, down from 81.9 on the year.
However, if Duke's guards can handle St. John's backcourt pressure, the Blue Devils will have success inside. Despite playing through star center Zuby Ejiofor, the Red Storm have a significant hole in their interior defense, ranking 210th in opponent points in the paint.
Cameron Boozer, the lone consistent Blue Devil, should be in for another big performance.
St. John's also wants to establish the paint, but it will have a tougher time scoring against Duke's sturdy frontcourt, which allows the seventh-fewest points in the paint. They are the best interior defense in the country with Patrick Ngongba II back on the court, per EvanMiya.
Teams have had the most success hurting Duke from the outside, which is not St. John's forte. Rick Pitino's team only makes 7.1 three-pointers per game, ranking 238th.
Duke vs. St. John's prediction and pick
St. John's defensive pressure will be its key to victory, especially if Caleb Foster misses another game. Although just third on the team in assists, Foster is the calming presence Duke turns to in treacherous terrain, an element it has missed during his hiatus.
But even if Foster sits, Duke's advantage in the paint will be profound. St. John's has beaten teams with its defense and physicality all season, but cannot match the size and skill of Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba II on either end of the court.
The Red Storm enter the Sweet Sixteen averaging 10.5 three-pointers per game in March Madness, but they will need even more than that to upset Duke. Pitino has to pray that veteran forward Bryce Hopkins continues to have the hot hand from downtown despite being just a 34.8 percent three-point shooter.
Duke is as difficult to trust at this point in the year, and St. John's appears to be in peak form. Anything can happen in March, but this is another favorable matchup for the Blue Devils that they should pull away from in the second half.
Final Duke-St. John's Prediction & Pick: Duke -6.5 (-112), Under 141.5 (-115)
