The UFC Seattle: Adesanya vs. Tybura Main Card is finally here, opening its action with this bout in the Lightweight (155) Division. Washington's own Terrance McKinney will return home against Canada's Kyle Nelson in a fight that should bring all the fireworks to open the Main Card. Check our UFC odds series for the McKinney-Nelson prediction and pick.
Terrance McKinney (17-8) has gone 7-5 since joining the UFC roster in 2021. He dropped his last bout against Chris Duncan at UFC 323, but he's primed to bounce back from the loss even stronger as the slight betting favorite back home in Washington. McKinney stands 5-foot-10 with a 73.5-inch reach.
Kyle Nelson (17-6-1) has gone 5-5-1 inside the UFC since 2018. After losing a three-fight winning streak to Steve Garcia, he responded with a unanimous decision over Matt Frevola his last time out and hopes to come out on top as the underdog once again. Nelson stands 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach.
UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Seattle Odds: Terrance McKinney-Kyle Nelson Odds
Terrance McKinney: -170
Kyle Nelson: +142
Over 1.5 rounds: +200
Under 1.5 rounds: -270
Why Terrance McKinney Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Chris Duncan – SUB (anaconda choke, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
Following back-to-back fights against Damir Hadzovic and Viacheslav Borshchev where he managed finishes in the first round, Terrance McKinney faced his own first-round defeat against Chris Duncan via submission his last time out. The loss was unexpected for McKinney, but Duncan was clearly tougher than he gave him credit for. With his last six consecutive fights ending inside the first round and all 12 of his bouts ending inside two rounds, we can be sure McKinney will come out looking for a similar result in this one.
McKinney wastes no time in taking the center of the octagon and immediately exchanges heated combinations against his opponent. While it's gotten him caught in the past, McKinney is usually able to parlay the striking chaos into taking dominant position on the ground. He's very dangerous with locking in quick submissions, so expect McKinney to constantly be working for the choke as soon as he hits the ground.
Against a steady opponent and 53% striking defense coming from Kyle Nelson, McKinney will certainly have to pick his shots carefully and avoid any big counters from his opponent. McKinney's chin is usually able to hold up through the opening round, but there's no doubt he's put himself at risk in the process and could see his durability suffer if he continues to fight for first-round knockouts.
Why Kyle Nelson Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Matt Frevola – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Kyle Nelson put together a complete performance in neutralizing a dangerous opponent in Matt Frevola, leading the striking total 92-60 and utilizing two takedowns in the third round to solidify the unanimous win on the scorecards. Nelson is about as steady and balanced as fighters come, completely willing to take the fight anywhere and usually be the more dominant side behind his fundamental techniques. He'll be willing to match McKinney's energy throughout the first round and we shouldn't be surprised if he can land the early knockout himself.
Kyle Nelson's loss to Steve Garcia certainly wasn't a bad one given the early stoppage and Nelson getting caught by a flush elbow. Outside of that, Nelson has been dominant through three rounds against dangerous knockout artists like Blake Bilder, Bill Algeo, and Matt Frevola. If he's able to weather the early storm in the first round, expect Nelson to be the more convincing side in the second and third rounds.
Nelson has been one to initiate the grappling and with only one submission loss on his record, he's typically very sound in defending from any attempts in the jiu jitsu. However, he may want to avoid extended exchanges on the mat against an opportunist like McKinney and giving himself a chance to win this fight on the feet early.
Final Terrance McKinney-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick
This fight is almost guaranteed to end inside the distance as Terrance McKinney has yet to see a third round in all 12 of his UFC fights. He's dished and taken some damage in the process and won't be able to overlook a strong opponent like Kyle Nelson in this one. Nelson is extremely well-rounded and will feel comfortable wherever this fight takes place and whatever style McKinney presents him with.
I expect Terrance McKinney to come out in this fight with his usual aggression and pushing the pace early. It'll be interesting to see how Nelson handles the early barrage, but his track record against similar-styled opponents indicates he should be able to take this fight into deeper waters.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with Kyle Nelson to win this fight as the underdog, pushing McKinney to the later rounds and ultimately winning on the back of his cardio and consistent pace. We could see McKinney gas out at some point and if he's unable to land the knockout in the first round, this fight becomes all the more interesting the longer it lasts.
Final Terrance McKinney-Kyle Nelson Prediction & Pick: Kyle Nelson (+142); OVER 1.5 rounds (+200)
