UFC Seattle: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer continues on the prelims with a fight between Chase Hooper and Lance Gibson Jr. in the lightweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Hooper-Gibson Jr. prediction and pick.
Chase Hooper (16-4-1) was riding the best stretch of his UFC career, submitting Clay Guida via armbar at UFC 310 in December 2024 and grinding out a unanimous decision over Jim Miller at UFC 314 in April 2025. However, that momentum came to a screeching halt when Alexander Hernandez TKO'd him in the first round at UFC 319 in August 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Lance Gibson.
Lance Gibson Jr. (9-2) made a strong impression coming into his UFC debut, earning two tune-up wins outside the Octagon before signing with the promotion. However, his first official UFC outing was a tough one, dropping a split decision to Bobby Green at UFC Fight Night in December 2025, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Chase Hooper.
UFC Seattle Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Seattle Odds: Jon Jones-Lance Gibson Jr. Odds
Chase Hooper: -278
Lance Gibson Jr.: +225
Over 1.5 rounds: -195
Under 1.5 rounds: +150
Why Chase Hooper Will Win
Chase Hooper is one of the slipperiest submission artists in the UFC lightweight division, and his grappling creativity gives him a finishing threat that a relatively inexperienced UFC fighter like Gibson is simply not prepared for. At 16-4-1, Hooper has faced and submitted elite-level competition throughout his career.
Gibson's split decision loss to Bobby Green in his UFC debut revealed that he can be outpointed by a crafty, experienced opponent — and Hooper is exactly that type of fighter. Hooper's ability to drag fights into deep grappling exchanges is a nightmare matchup for someone still finding their footing in the Octagon.
Hooper also brings a significant experience edge, having competed in some of the biggest fights the lightweight division has to offer. That comfort under the bright lights of a UFC event is something Gibson has yet to fully develop.
Hooper's length and unorthodox movement on the feet also make him a difficult puzzle to solve for opponents still learning how to navigate elite-level competition. Gibson has shown he can be outworked over three rounds, and Hooper has the cardio and submission savvy to do exactly that.
Hooper's grappling IQ and UFC experience make him the clear favorite here. Expect him to find a submission finish somewhere in the second or third round and snap his losing streak emphatically in Seattle.
Why Lance Gibson Jr. Will Win
Lance Gibson Jr. enters this fight as a hungry, unproven commodity who has everything to gain and nothing to lose on Saturday night in Seattle. That kind of desperation and chip-on-the-shoulder mentality can be one of the most dangerous things to face in a cage fight.
Hooper is coming off a brutal first-round TKO loss to Alexander Hernandez, and questions about his durability and chin are very much back on the table. Gibson is a physically imposing lightweight who can exploit those concerns with aggressive forward pressure from the opening bell.
Gibson's split decision loss to Bobby Green was competitive and proved he can hang with experienced UFC-level fighters for three full rounds. If he can keep the fight standing and avoid getting tied up in Hooper's submission web, his athleticism and physicality give him a clear path to victory.
Hooper's grappling is elite, but fighters who know it is coming can defend it — and Gibson's team will have had months to prepare specifically for those takedown and submission attempts. A well-prepared game plan built around takedown defense could completely neutralize Hooper's biggest weapon.
Gibson is the kind of raw, explosive fighter who thrives as an underdog. His youth, athleticism, and hunger could be the deciding factors as he looks to earn his first UFC win in dramatic fashion Saturday night in Seattle.
Final Chase Hooper-Lance Gibson Jr. Prediction & Pick
This lightweight matchup is a classic experience vs. youth battle, with Hooper's veteran savvy and submission skills going up against Gibson's raw athleticism and point-to-prove mentality. The early rounds will set the tone — if Gibson can keep the fight standing and avoid Hooper's grappling, this becomes a much more competitive contest.
Expect Hooper to look for takedowns early and often, using his patented unorthodox style to keep Gibson uncomfortable and off-balance. Gibson will counter by working behind his jab and looking to land power shots that can discourage Hooper's forward pressure.
Hooper's experience and submission creativity should begin to take over, especially if he has already established his grappling in the opening frame. Gibson's UFC inexperience could show itself when the fight gets into deep, grinding exchanges that Hooper has navigated many times before.
Hooper's losses have come against elite competition, and bouncing back against a UFC newcomer feels like a very realistic outcome here. His submission game alone makes him dangerous in every single round of this fight.
His grappling IQ and finishing ability prove to be too much for a Gibson who is still learning the ropes at UFC level on a tough night in Seattle as he get submitted before the final horn.
Final Chase Hooper-Lance Gibson Jr. Prediction & Pick: Chase Hooper (-278), Over 1.5 Rounds (-195)
