One of the biggest NHL storylines to track over the next few seasons will be Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin's pursuit of Wayne Gretzky's goal record.
As of now, Ovechkin stands only 72 goals back of Gretzky's 894 goals. With another three years remaining on his contract and the forward remaining healthy, there's no question he's going to break the record. It's just a matter of when, and by the time he retires, where the new record stands.
Ovechkin hasn't shown signs of slowing down, with 42 goals and 75 points in 73 games this season. He had almost twice as many goals as any other member of the Capitals' roster this season.
However, it's that roster which makes things a bit complicated with Ovechkin's goal chase.
This season, Washington missed the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade. The Capitals were clear sellers this trade deadline, shipping out Dmitry Orlov and others. While that was almost certainly aimed to be a one-time sell-off, it's more likely it marks the beginning of the end for Washington.
The Capitals' aging roster
Washington's core group is continuing to age, which leaves the team in a tough spot. For starters, Nicklas Backstrom has dealt with huge injury issues. When he has played over the last two years, his production has been way down. He'll be turning 36 years old this year and his contract carries a $9.2 million cap hit.
Meanwhile, T.J. Oshie is a bit of a similar case, having missed a lot of time over the last two years. He's a year older than Backstrom and has a $5.75 million cap hit. Both Backstrom and Oshie have two years remaining on their respective contracts.
Anthony Mantha also hasn't worked out in Washington since being acquired from the Detroit Red Wings two years ago. He managed just 11 goals this year and has a season remaining on his contract at a $5.7 million cap hit.
Even Evgeny Kuznetsov managed a measly 12 goals in 81 games this season. He'll turn 31 years old in May and still has another two years, $7.8 million left on his deal.
The point is, the Capitals are spending a lot of money on aging players whose numbers have declined. Even if they were to look to move some of these players, they'd have a hard time finding takers. As a result, the team will have limited cap space to improve heading into next season. They also don't have enough young talent right now to fill in the gaps.
Getting back to the playoffs
Then you look at the competition. In the Metropolitan Division, the Carolina Hurricanes, New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils will continue competing. Meanwhile, the New York Islanders have made moves to stay in the hunt, and you can bet the Pittsburgh Penguins will be trying to get back to the postseason as well.
Checking around the rest of the East, it's a similar situation. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins remain contenders. Meanwhile, the Florida Panthers, Ottawa Senators, Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings will all be competing for the playoffs as well, with many of those teams continuing to improve.
Essentially, the East is a lot more competitive than the West right now. As a result, it's difficult to see the Capitals building a good enough team to actually compete in the years to come.
Delaying a rebuild
You have to imagine in a world where Ovechkin isn't a factor, the Capitals take this opportunity to kickstart a rebuild. However, Capitals owner Ted Leonsis told ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski earlier this season that the team won't be rebuilding around Ovechkin.
In all fairness, Ovechkin has become the greatest player in franchise history. It's going to be important to the organization that he breaks the goal record in a Capitals jersey, and it's likely we'll see him finish his career with the team.
However, the decision to try to keep the team competitive for one player is only going to cause issues down the road. We've seen what happens as teams put off a full teardown and, typically, it just means an even longer road to get competitive again.
The Chicago Blackhawks are one example of this. It was clear by 2018 or 2019 that they were no longer in a spot to compete and should have actively been focusing on building for the future. However, the team attempted to bypass the rebuild, traded future assets for current talent, and all it did was set them back even further.
What comes next for Capitals?
So the outcomes here are likely one of two scenarios. If the Capitals actually did rebuild, Ovechkin would be chasing Gretzky's record while playing unimportant games. In the other, more likely scenario, the Capitals keep trying to compete and jeopardize their future to remain a middle-of-the-road team. Given most of their payroll for next season is already set, we may see them trade assets just to try to seek short-term solutions.
Obviously, the Capitals' status at the point Ovechkin breaks the record won't have any impact on the importance of the event. However, keeping the team competitive as Ovechkin chases the record will likely result in long-term consequences for the organization.
So while the event will be significant, the road to get there and path afterwards could be much less joyous for the Capitals.
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