Arthur Rinderknech plays Frances Tiafoe at the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Rinderknech-Tiafoe prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Rinderknech-Tiafoe.
The first major of the year starts this weekend, and Frances Tiafoe will be heavily scrutinized by the rest of the tennis community. Tiafoe is a fascinating player to consider when evaluating a career and its overall progress. In terms of 12-month blocks of results and overall world ranking, Tiafoe does not rate as one of the best players on tour. Men's tennis no longer has a Big Three of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic. Taylor Fritz is the No. 4 seed at this Australian Open. No offense to Fritz, but that's a big drop-off from the ATP Golden Era in which Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, and David Ferrer were all the mix at majors. Men's tennis is weaker and thinner and much more fluid now than it was 10 years ago. A really good player should be in the top 10, if not the top six or seven. Tiafoe is seeded No. 17. He is not relentlessly consistent. From that vantage point, his career has been underwhelming.
However, when viewed through the prism of major tournament performances, Tiafoe's career is a lot better than most of his peers. He has reached multiple major semifinals. He made the semifinals of the 2024 U.S. Open and led the aforementioned Taylor Fritz two sets to one before falling in five sets. Other male pros are still waiting for their first major semifinal. Tiafoe enjoys the big stage, and he loves playing high-profile matches. He had Carlos Alcaraz on the ropes at Wimbledon last year before the Spaniard rallied to win. Tiafoe played really good tennis that day; he just couldn't finish the job. Nevertheless, Tiafoe made a late surge in the summer hardcourt season and showed everyone how good he can be. There's a lot to like about Tiafoe's career, but the next step is being a consistent every-week player. The Australian Open will give us a first look at Tiafoe in 2025. Can he evolve and reach a higher plateau?
Here are the Rinderknech-Tiafoe Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Odds: Rinderknech-Tiafoe Odds
Game Spread:
Rinderknech +5.5 (-134)
Tiafoe -5.5 (+102)
Moneyline:
Rinderknech +285
Tiafoe -365
To Win First Set:
Rinderknech +166
Tiafoe -205
Total Games In Match:
Over 38.5 (-110)
Under 38.5 (-120)
Total Games Won:
Rinderknech over 17.5 (-126)
Rinderknech under 17.5 (-106)




Tiafoe over 20.5 (-116)
Tiafoe under 20.5 (-116)
How to Watch Australian Open
Time: 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Arthur Rinderknech Will Win
We said it clearly and plainly: Frances Tiafoe is not relentlessly consistent. He can be really good when he is on, but he can look very ordinary for large portions of the tennis season. Tiafoe's forehand isn't nearly as good as many other forehands you will see on tour. He has weaknesses which can be picked apart by a competent tour player, which is what Rinderknech is. This match could very easily be close; no one would be surprised at all.
Why Frances Tiafoe Will Win
Frances Tiafoe, after making the U.S. Open semifinals last September in New York, should feel confident about his ability on hardcourts at a big tournament. If he wins the first set, he's probably off to the races against Rindeknech, who has nothing close to Tiafoe's high-end accomplishments at majors.
Final Rinderknech-Tiafoe Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Rinderknech, but we think you should pass on this match.
Final Rinderknech-Tiafoe Prediction & Pick: Rinderknech +5.5