Ranked 8th nationally, Bruce Pearl and the Auburn Tigers travel to Starkville to take on Chris Jans’ Mississippi State Bulldogs in this big-time SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an Auburn-Mississippi State prediction and pick.
Coming off their first loss since December 3rd, the Auburn Tigers find themselves on the road again. Led by Johni Broome, the Tigers find themselves tied for first in the SEC after six games. Bruce Pearl has the luxury of having one of the deepest benches in America with the ability to go 10 or 11 deep. To maintain their standing, Auburn will have to find a way to win tough games on the road.
In their way, a Chris Jans defense and a sold-out Humphrey Coliseum. After six games, Mississippi State is pegged at the bottom half of the SEC with a record of just 2-4. However, the record is deceiving–this team beat Tennessee and took Alabama to the brink just two weeks ago. If desperation mode has not been engaged already, it will be this Saturday in The Hump.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Auburn-Mississippi State Odds
Auburn: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
Mississippi State: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
Over: 146.5 (-110)
Under: 146.5 (-110)
How to Watch Auburn vs. Mississippi State
Time: 3:30 pm ET/ 12:30 pm PT
TV: SECN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Auburn Will Cover The Spread/Win
Similar to last year, this Mississippi State offense struggles with consistency from outside. Freshman shooter Josh Hubbard has provided a major boost, but besides Hubbard, it is not too pretty. Due to the shooting inconsistency and having a player of the year candidate in Tolu Smith down low, the Bulldogs get a huge portion of their points from two (57.5%). Fortunately, Auburn’s two-point defense (42.5%) ranks third nationally and first in the SEC. If Mississippi State is going to score inside, they will have to do it on the best interior defense the conference has to offer.
Secondly, an area that Auburn has struggled with is their foul rate. Auburn has ranked bottom 100 nationally in opponent free throw rate all season and it has continued into conference play. Thankfully, Mississippi State is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. The difference between these teams in free throw percentages after six SEC games is truly jarring. Auburn is first in the conference shooting 82.4% while Mississippi State is dead last shooting 59.6%. With odds indicating a one-possession game, the ability to knock down free throws could be the difference for the whole game. Remember, we have already seen free throws cost the Bulldogs before when they missed four straight against Alabama down 72-74 with two minutes left.
Finally, Auburn should be in a position to win the turnover battle. Auburn has been able to turn teams over on 21.6% of possessions in SEC play while Mississippi State has turned it over on 18.2% of their possessions. If Auburn can jump on Mississippi State early and get some easy baskets off turnovers it would be huge to be able to play with a lead at The Hump.
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Auburn has only played four true road games with two of them coming against top 100 opponents. Auburn has lost both of those games (64-69 @ Appalachian St, 75-79 @ Alabama). In those two tough road games, freshman point guard Aden Holloway is a combined 0-11 from three. The Tigers' only top-50 win this year is at home against a Solomon Washington-less Texas A&M team, 66-55. In summary, when Auburn has been put in pressure situations they have not found ways to win.
While Mississippi State may not be able to knock down their free throws, they can still draw a lot of fouls. Tolu Smith ranks third nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes (8.4) only behind Purdue’s Zach Edey (9.2) and Asheville’s Drew Pember (8.5). Who will be guarding Tolu Smith? Current SEC player of the year favorite, Johni Broome. As good as Dylan Cardwell is, this Auburn offense loses its most impactful piece when Broome goes out. If Smith can get Broome or even Jaylin Williams in foul trouble, Auburn’s margin for error begins to narrow.
Lastly, it is clear how big of a role home-court advantage plays but some places have that extra boost. The Hump is one of them. KenPom’s home-court advantage ratings are based on a per-game difference between home and road margins over the last 60 conference games. The Hump ranks 7th in the nation, and first in the SEC with a home court worth 4.1 points.
Final Auburn-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
All the team numbers and analytics are going to show Auburn has the edge pretty much everywhere. Combine Auburn’s inconsistent road guardplay and Tolu Smith’s ability to draw fouls and the home side is looking like the play. If Tennessee and Alabama could not go into The Hump and win easily, why would Auburn? This is one of the toughest environments to play in America. Hail State.
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Final Auburn-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Mississippi State +2.5 (-110)