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Check out FanDuel’s 2022 college football over under win total odds, including the Alabama over under win total prediction, part of our college football odds series.
The first thing to note when considering the condition of Alabama football is that the Crimson Tide weren't especially strong last year. They weren't. This is not embellishment or revisionist history. They were a good team, sometimes very good, but they were not great. This is not an insult. In fact, Nick Saban would agree that his 2021 Tide wasn't one of his better squads.
Alabama scored just three points against Auburn in the first 59 minutes of the Iron Bowl last year. Alabama couldn't consistently move the ball against an LSU defense which was terrible for most of the season. Alabama couldn't beat Texas A&M quarterback Zach Calzada, who — it was announced this weekend — lost the starting quarterback battle at Auburn to T.J. Finley. Auburn is a total mess under Bryan Harsin, whom many feel is a lame-duck coach given the recent news that athletic director Allen Greene is heading out the door and doesn't want to deal with the dysfunction in the football program anymore. Alabama lost to Auburn's backup quarterback. That's not a great team.
And yet: Alabama still made the national championship game. Moreover, had receiver Jameson Williams not gotten hurt against Georgia, the Crimson Tide might have delivered Saban yet another trophy. Even when Alabama was less than great, it was still the No. 2 team in the country. That's how amazing the Crimson Tide truly are. Now they'll try to win back the national title from Georgia. Let's look at the Alabama over under win total and see what the best play is.
Here are the 2022 College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2022 College Football Odds: Alabama Over/Under Win Total Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide:
Over: 11.5 (+120)
Under: 11.5 (-140)
Why Alabama Will Win 12 Games
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Remember, this pertains to the 12-game regular season, not the SEC Championship Game, which is a 13th game. Georgia is not part of the discussion. If that's the case, Alabama is going to be favored over all 12 teams it plays. No team will have the advantage over Bama going into kickoff unless the Tide pick up one or more huge injuries. It's really that simple.
To say more about what we discussed above, Alabama wasn't great in 2021 and was still the national runner-up. Alabama hammered Cincinnati in the College Football Playoff semifinals. It thrashed Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Yet, the offensive line wasn't especially good. Bryce Young had a very good season but stumbled in multiple games, including Auburn and LSU. Alabama fell into an in-between cycle with its recruits, but in 2022, the offensive line should be so much better than it was last year. If that's the case, you're going to see the 2022 offense be a lot more like 2020 — which averaged almost 50 points per game — and less like 2021. Alabama is not going to lose if that happens.
Why Alabama Won't Win 12 Games
Alabama could very easily win 12 games, but remember that the over-under is 11.5, not 11. If the number was 11, it would be so much easier to pick the over, since 11 wins seems like a lock. At 11.5, however, it's 12 or nothing. Given that Bryce Young had a few bad games last year, there's a decent chance he will have a bad game this year. Is Alabama good enough to win if Young struggles? We'll obviously have to wait and see, but that's a very realistic scenario.
Final Alabama Win Total Prediction
While 12-0 would not be surprising, it also isn't a percentage-based pick. Going 12-0 in college football is one of the toughest things to do in sports. Ole Miss, playing at home in Oxford, could spring the ambush on Saban and the Tide. The Rebels have done so in the past decade, albeit under a different coach. Take the under … if you do want to make a pick on this proposition.
Final Alabama Win Total Prediction: Under 11.5 (-140)
