Subscribe
Follow Us
It is time to see some dingers, as Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena face off in the first round of this year's Home Run Derby. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a special round one Garcia – Arozarena prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The winner of the Derby has come out of this match-up in the last two years. In 2021 it was Pete Alonso that was the winner as the five seed, first taking out the four-seeded Salvador Perez in an epic slugfest. It was a 35-38 first round before Alonso beat Juan Soto and Trey Mancini on his way to a victory. Last year it was the four-seeded Juan Soto who won it all. He took out Jose Ramirez and Albert Pujols before beating Julio Rodriguez to win the derby.
The four seed this year is Adolis Garcia. He has 23 home runs on the season and also has a three-home run game this year. Garcia is the only player in the field with a three-home run game this season. He has also two different stretches of three games in a row with a home run. In an event all about rhythm, Garcia shows he can get into the groove.
Randy Aronzarena will face his countrymate from Cuba in the first round. He comes into the derby with 16 home runs on the year. Each year there is a budding star who takes center stage in the derby, and it could be Arozarena this year.
Here are the Garcia-Arozarena MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Home Run Derby Odds: Garcia-Arozarena Odds
Adolis Garcia: -144
Randy Arozarena: +118
How To Watch Garcia. vs. Arozarena
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Adolis Garcia Could Win
Adolis Garcia has huge power. This year, Garcia has mostly been a pull hitter, but he has hit eight of his 23 home runs to right of center field. This may be where Garcia needs to hang out for the Derby. According to BallPark Pal, T-Mobile park is one of the hardest to hit home runs in. Even more, it is harder for right-handed pull hitters. The positive parts of the ball park to hit the ball to for a home run is for a pull leftie, not a rightie, although straight down the foul line for a right-handed back works as well. The other major home run alley is just to the right of center.
In that spot, T-Mobile Park has a +16% home run factor, which goes up at night. Garcia has hit eight there this year, and has another two fly balls this year that would have would have been home runs to that exact sport. Actually, Garcia has had some major bad luck when it comes to home runs and ballparks this year. Per Baseball Savant, if Garcia played in the average ballpark at all times, he would have 26 home runs. If he played just a T-Mobile Park, he would have 29.
The best factor has been barrel percentage this year for Garcia. Out of all the home run participants this year, Garcia has the highest barrel rate of any of them. Garcia makes good contact and gets into good groves, which could give him the win.
Why Randy Arozarena Could Win
Arozarena is one of just many Rays that could have been here. Arozarena has 16 home runs on the season and would have more at T-Mobile Park. At T-Mobile he would have 18 home runs, two more than he does on the season. Arozarena has become less of a pull hitter than in years past and is hitting more to center. Still, his power swing is to the pull side. That means he wil have to pull heavily at this ballpark.
Like Garcia, he would need to pull straight down left field for the best pull spot for a right-handed batter. Also like Garcia, he has hit multiple home runs to the just right of corner spot. In that spot T-Mobile Park has a +16% home run factor, which goes up at night.
One of the biggest things would be the high-leverage splits of Arozarena. In high leverage situations, his hard-hit-and-barrel percentages have gone up astronomically this year. This is nothing new for Arozarena in his career. He did this in the 2020 playoffs, and the big stage of the home run derby could classify as a high leverage situation.
Final Garcia – Arozarena Prediction & Pick
Adolis Garcia is the hotter bat of the two currently. Both of them have similar swing metrics and this one will all come down to who can rise to the occasion. Garcia is a rhythm hitter. If he gets off rhythm he will not be hitting a lot of home runs. With similar advanced metrics, take the man who does better under pressure. Arozarena gets it done in the first round.
Final Home Run Derby Garcia – Arozarena Prediction & Pick: Randy Arozarena +118
