UFC Vegas 113: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira continues on the prelims with a bout between Alex Morono and Daniil Donchenko in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Morono-Donchenko prediction and pick.
Alex Morono (24-12) enters on a three-fight skid, coming off a brutal first-round knockout loss to Carlos Leal after a razor-close split-decision setback to Daniel Rodriguez, which followed a workmanlike points win over Niko Price. The veteran technician still relies on volume boxing and durability as he enters his fight this weekend against Doniil Donchenko.
Daniil Donchenko (12-2) storms in after blasting Rodrigo Sezinando to win TUF 33 and previously outworking Rustem Kudaibergenov over five rounds in Naiza FC. The high‑volume Ukrainian pressure fighter leans on pace, boxing combinations, and finishes as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alex Morono.
Here are the UFC Vegas 113 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 113 odds: Alex Morono-Daniil Donchenko odds
Alex Morono: +455
Daniil Donchenko: -625
Over 1.5 rounds: +105
Under 1.5 rounds: -135
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Alex Morono will win
- Last Fight: (L) Carlos Leal – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 13 (6 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Alex Morono’s clearest edge is experience and craft. With nearly 40 pro fights and a long UFC tenure, he’s seen just about every style, which can help him read and adjust to Donchenko’s aggressive, linear pressure over 15 minutes. That veteran seasoning shows in his shot selection, counters, and composure in messy exchanges.
Donchenko’s volume and willingness to take one to give one make him fun but hittable. Morono’s straight right, check hooks, and willingness to throw in combination off the counter are tailor-made to intercept someone who often enters on the same lines.
If Morono stays disciplined, picks his spots, and occasionally clinches or level changes to break Donchenko’s rhythm, he can force the younger fighter into extended defensive sequences he hasn’t consistently had to navigate. Over time, that could slow Daniil’s output and make his entries more predictable.
Markets have Morono as a sizable underdog, but that mostly reflects age and optics rather than pure skill. In a fight likely to feature brawling moments, Morono’s timing, counters, and veteran savvy give him a live path to a decision—or even late stoppage—at UFC Vegas 113.
Why Daniil Donchenko will win
- Last Fight: (W) Rodrigo Sezinando – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 10 (8 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Daniil Donchenko looks primed to overwhelm Alex Morono with youth, pace, and a far more efficient striking and wrestling profile. His numbers jump off the page: roughly 8.7 significant strikes landed per minute at 57% accuracy with strong defensive metrics and real takedown volume layered behind it.
Morono, by contrast, is on a three-fight skid, absorbing far more damage than he used to and struggling to keep opponents off him when they press forward. Donchenko’s pressure, combinations, and willingness to mix in level changes should force the veteran onto the back foot and into prolonged defensive sequences where his declining footwork and 47% takedown defense become liabilities.
The small Apex cage only amplifies this; it gives a marauding pressure fighter like Donchenko less distance to cover and fewer escape lanes for Morono’s usual circling and reset game. Over three rounds, that likely means Donchenko steadily piling up damage with boxing, elbows, and top control whenever he secures takedowns.
Markets heavily reflect this dynamic, pricing Donchenko as a strong favorite and projecting a bout where volume and control snowball over time. The prediction is Daniil Donchenko by dominant decision with real upside for a late accumulation-based stoppage at UFC Vegas 113.
Final Alex Morono-Daniil Donchenko prediction & pick
Daniil Donchenko looks like the rightful favorite and the pick, largely due to youth, durability, and pace advantages against a clearly weathered Alex Morono. Morono’s veteran craft is real, but three straight losses with mounting damage make it harder to trust him to win 15 hard minutes against a surging pressure fighter.
Donchenko’s game is built to win rounds: high-volume boxing combinations, body-head attacks, and the ability to mix in takedowns behind his forward pressure. In the small Apex cage, that style tends to snowball as he pins opponents, forces them into extended exchanges, and racks up both damage and control time.
Morono’s best path is landing clean counters as Donchenko enters, or creating chaos that turns into opportunistic finishing moments. But with slowing footwork and historically shaky takedown defense, he’s far more likely to end up fighting off the fence and the mat than consistently dictating terms.
Given current metrics and market sentiment, the most probable script is Donchenko dragging Morono into a high-pace, attritional fight where his volume, youth, and physicality shine. Daniil Donchenko is expected to finish Alex Morono early at UFC Vegas 113 to make 2-0 inside the octagon.
Final Alex Morono-Daniil Donchenko Prediction & Pick: Daniil Donchenko (-650), Under 1.5 Rounds (-135)
