UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett continues on the prelims with a bout between Alex Perez and Charles Johnson in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Perez-Johnson prediction and pick.
Alex Perez (25-10) enters UFC 324 on a two-fight skid, most recently getting caught in a third-round guillotine by Asu Almabayev in November 2025 after suffering a TKO knee injury loss to unbeaten prospect Tatsuro Taira in June 2024, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Charles Johnson.
Charles Johnson (18-7) rides momentum from a statement second-round knockout of Lone’er Kavanagh in August 2025, rebounding from a competitive unanimous-decision loss to Ramazan Temirov that March. The dynamic flyweight striker looks to build on that resurgence as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alex Perez.
Here are the UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 324 odds: Alex Perez-Charles Johnson odds
Alex Perez: +150
Charles Johnson: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
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Why Alex Perez will win
- Last Fight: (W) Asu Almabayev – SUB R3
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 13 (6 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Alex Perez can beat Charles Johnson at UFC 324 by leaning on pressure wrestling and punishing leg kicks to blunt Johnson’s rhythm and volume striking. Perez excels at crashing the pocket behind combinations, transitioning seamlessly into level changes, clinch exchanges, and takedowns that sap opponents’ cardio over three rounds.
If Perez consistently hack at Johnson’s lead leg the way he dismantled Jussier Formiga, he can slow the stance switches and lateral movement that fuel Johnson’s high-output style. Once Johnson’s footwork is compromised, Perez’s ability to mix boxing combinations with reactive shots and heavy top control can turn this into a grinding, control-heavy affair that wins minutes and rounds.
Why Charles Johnson will win
- Last Fight: (W) Lone’er Kavanagh – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 11 (7 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Charles Johnson can beat Alex Perez at UFC 324 by leaning on pace and volume to drag the former title challenger into a high-output, three-round sprint. Johnson averages nearly five significant strikes per minute with solid striking defense, thriving in extended exchanges where his cardio shines.
If Johnson maintains his lateral movement, stance switches, and long kicking game, he can disrupt Perez’s pocket entries and limit the clean looks for leg kicks and takedowns. Over time, Johnson’s willingness to eat one to land two, combined with visible confidence and activity, can sway judges in a competitive fight that increasingly favors his style.
Final Alex Perez-Charles Johnson prediction & pick
This flyweight matchup profiles as a high-paced clash where durability, activity, and late-round consistency should matter most. Johnson’s volume striking, cardio, and constant stance switches give him the tools to keep this fight at his preferred long and mid-range striking distance.
Perez remains dangerous with sharp boxing entries, heavy leg kicks, and opportunistic takedowns, but his recent form and wear from injuries and submissions raise questions about his ability to sustain pressure for all three rounds. If his leg kicks don’t quickly slow Johnson’s movement, Perez may find himself stuck chasing a fresher, busier opponent in open space.
Across fifteen minutes, Johnson’s higher output, scrambling ability, and willingness to push a pace should help him gradually pull ahead on the scorecards. Expect Perez to have early success with counters and kicks, but Johnson’s pressure, jab, and kicking game can take over as the fight extends.
The pick is Charles Johnson to edge a competitive but increasingly clear decision, winning two of three rounds behind volume striking, movement, and superior late-fight cardio at UFC 324 on Saturday.
Final Alex Perez-Charles Johnson Prediction & Pick: Charles Johnson (-180), Over 2.5 Rounds (-195)
