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The first leg of the Champions League Semi-Finals is on tap as Arsenal hosts PSG. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with an Arsenal-PSG prediction and pick.
Arsenal arrived here after having a solid league phase. They went 6-1-1 in the league phase, which earned them an automatic spot in the round of 16. There, they would face PSV, advancing on a 9-3 aggregate. They would then face Real Madrid in the quarterfinals. After winning the first leg 3-0, they would then win the second leg 2-1, advancing on a 5-1 aggregate.
Meanwhile, PSG went 4-1-3 in the league phase, forcing them to play in the first round of the knockout phase. They would face Brest in that round, advancing 10-0 on aggregate. They would then face Liverpool in the next round. PSG lost the first leg 1-0, but won the second leg 1-0. That would lead to penalty kicks, where PSG would advance. They would then face Aston Villa. After a 3-1 victory in the first leg, they would fall 3-2 in the second leg. Still, they would advance 5-4 on aggregate.
These two teams faced back in the 2016-2017 Champions League, with both fixtures ending in a draw.
Here are the Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Arsenal-PSG Odds
Arsenal: +115
PSG: +240
Draw: +240
Over 2.5 goals: -114
Under 2.5 goals: -108
How to Watch Arsenal vs. PSG
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: CBS/Paramount +
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Why Arsenal Will Win
Arsenal is scoring well overall. In 52 fixtures this year, they have scored 105 goals, good for 2.02 goals per game. Further, they have scored in 43 of 52 fixtures this year. Arsenal has continued to score well in UCL play. They have scored in ten of 12 fixtures and scored 30 total goals in the process. Further, they have been great at home. Arsenal has scored in all six of their home fixtures and has scored 14 goals over the six fixtures. That is good for 2.33 goals per game at home.
Arsenal is led by Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz. Saka has scored five goals with two assists in UCL play. In Premier League play, he has six goals and ten assists this year. Havertz has scored four times on an expected 2.6 goals in UCL play while also having an assist. In the Premier League, he has nine goals and three assists. Finally, Gabriel Martinelli has seven goals and four assists in Premier League play but has two goals and one assist in UCL play. Further, Declan Rice has four goals and two assists in UCL play.
The Arsenal defense has been dominant overall. They have allowed just 44 goals across their 52 fixtures this year, good for just 0.85 goals per game. Further, they have allowed just seven goals in 12 games in UCL play with six clean sheets. Arsenal has allowed just two goals at home so far in UCL play, with five clean sheets at home.
Why PSG Will Win
PSG has scored well this year, scoring in 45 of 49 fixtures overall, averaging 2.67 goals per game across all competitions. In UCL play, they have scored in 11 of 14 games. Further, they have scored 30 goals over the 14 games, good for 2.15 goals per game in UCL play. PSG has scored in five of their six fixtures on the road in UCL play, scoring 13 goals in their six games on the road in UCL play. That is good for 2.17 goals per game.
PSG has been led by Ousmane Dembele. He has scored seven times with three assists so far in UCL play. Further, he has 21 goals with five assists so far in Ligue 1 play this year. Meanwhile, Bradley Barcola has also been solid. In Ligue 1 play, he has 13 goals with ten assists. So far in UCL play, Barcola has three goals and three assists. Further, Nuno Mendes has four goals and an assist in UCL play so far.
PSG has also been strong on defense overall. They have conceded just 47 goals across their 49 fixtures this year. PSG has been strong on defense in UCL play. They have conceded just 14 goals overall in their 14 games so far. Further, they have five clean sheets this year in UCL play. On the road, PSG has allowed just seven goals in its six road games with three clean sheets.
Final Arsenal-PSG Prediction & Pick
Both teams have played well so far in UCL play. Both teams are scoring over two goals per game, while neither team is giving up many goals. Still, the difference in this one will be the home defense of Arsenal. They have allowed just two goals at home so far in UCL play. Further, both of those goals were to PSV who they already held a six-goal aggregate lead on. Take Arsenal in this one.
Final Arsenal-PSG Prediction & Pick: Arsenal ML (+115)
