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It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Astros-Orioles prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Astros-Orioles.
If the Baltimore Orioles do win the American League East Division championship in 2024, they will look back on these past two games against the Houston Astros — the most consistent team in the American League over the past seven years — as a key turning point.
The Orioles lost to the Astros on Thursday in the first game of this four-game series between American League pennant contenders. The O's won over 100 games last year, and the Astros led the American League Championship Series 3-2 and were one win from a third consecutive World Series appearance and a fifth in seven seasons. These teams figured to contend for the pennant this year and have met that expectation, but even though Baltimore has had a better record the whole season, the Astros had seemingly established the upper hand in head-to-head combat. They crushed Corbin Burnes, Baltimore's ace, on Thursday. They took a 5-2 lead into the latter innings on Friday and seemed well on their way to another win. Then came the huge turning point. Anthony Santander, who has been magnificent for Baltimore this year, hit a grand slam in the bottom of the eighth to give the O's a come-from-behind win. The energy and confidence of the O's flowed into Saturday, when they mounted another rally from a multi-run deficit. They scored three in the sixth to overcome a 2-0 deficit against an in-form Framber Valdez and beat the Astros again.
Baltimore has, for the moment, changed the tenor of its season. Let's see if the O's can maintain that changed identity in the Sunday Night Baseball showcase.
Astros-Orioles Projected Starters
Yusei Kikuchi vs. Dean Kremer
Yusei Kikuchi (6-9) has a 4.37 ERA. Kikuchi hasn't been spectacular, but he has been good for Houston since arriving from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline. Kikuchi's innings are a lifeline for a staff which has been overworked in the absence of Justin Verlander, who recently returned to the active starting rotation, and other injured starters who have missed all or most of 2024. Kikuchi is very familiar with the Orioles, having pitched in the AL East for a few years. Houston needs him to stand tall in a possible postseason preview.
Last Start: Monday, August 19 versus the Boston Red Sox: 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K
2024 Road Splits: 12 starts, 59 IP, 65 H, 28 R, 8 HR, 18 BB, 71 K
Dean Kremer (6-9) has a 4.30 ERA. No one would view Kremer as a better pitcher than Kikuchi, and yet that ERA is slightly lower. Kikuchi has had a few huge clunkers which bloated his ERA. Kremer was actually very strong in his last outing against the Mets. If Kremer can turn the corner in these next five weeks, that would go a long way toward helping the O's overtake the Yankees in a compelling two-team battle for the AL East title.
Last Start: Tuesday, August 20 versus the New York Mets: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
2024 Home Splits: 8 starts, 42 2/3 IP, 44 H, 33 R, 10 HR, 18 BB, 39 K
Here are the Astros-Orioles MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Astros-Orioles Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+136)
Moneyline: -112
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-164)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Article Continues Below
Under: 8.5 (-110)
How to Watch Astros vs Orioles
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/4:10 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Astros Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kikuchi is a better pitcher than Kremer, and the Astros are going to pick themselves up after two very difficult losses. This team had been playing elite baseball before the Friday and Saturday blown leads in Baltimore. Expect a bounce-back here from Houston.
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The O's have their mojo back. The comeback wins the past two days recalled last year's 100-win team. The vibes are good, and they're likely to carry over into this Sunday showdown.
Final Astros-Orioles Prediction & Pick
The lean is to the Orioles getting a run and a half on the run line, but this game feels like a live wire. We think you should pass on it.
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Final Astros-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Orioles +1.5
