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These two teams are struggling with consistency and need a win to stay on the right side of the NCAA Tournament Bubble. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Baylor-TCU prediction and pick.
Baylor is 17-12 and just won a game to break their three-game losing streak. It has quality wins against Arkansas, St. John's, Kansas, and West Virginia. It also has notable losses to Gonzaga, Tennessee, UConn, Iowa State, Arizona twice, BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston. Norchad Omier has emerged as the best player and they need a lot from him and VJ Edgecombe on the road to get off the bubble.
TCU is 16-13 and needs this win. It has quality wins against Xavier, BYU, Baylor, West Virginia, and Texas Tech. It also has notable losses in Michigan, Vanderbilt, Arizona, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and West Virginia. Noah Reynolds is the best player for an inconsistent offense, and they need him to have a monster game against the Bears at home and try to stay in the Bubble conversation.
Here are the Baylor-TCU College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Baylor-TCU Odds
Baylor: -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline: -150
TCU: +2.5 (-105)
Moneyline: +125
Over: 140.5 (-108)
Under: 140.5 (-112)
How to Watch Baylor vs. TCU
Time: 8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN+
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Baylor Will Cover The Spread/Win
Baylor's offense has been ranked near the top of the Big 12 all season. They score 77.8 points per game, have a 45.2% field-goal percentage, and shoot 35.7% three-pointers. In KenPom, Baylor also has the 15th-ranked adjusted offense, with a rating of 121.1.
Four different Bears are averaging over double digits, proving this offense has a lot of balance. Omier is the best player on this offense, averaging 15.6 points per game and dominating from down low. Edgecombe has also been great as an instant-impact freshman, averaging 14.6 points per game. Then, passing the ball, they have been okay at best, averaging 14.8 assists per game, and Robert Wright III leads the team in assists with 4.4 per game.
This offense is a giant strength for the Bears, but this defense is formidable for TCU. I think the Bears have the advantage on this side of the court against the Horned Frogs, but the matchup is the X-factor in this game.
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Baylor's defense has been okay at best this season. They allow 69.9 points per game, 44.6% from the field, and 35.4% from behind the arc. On KenPom, this defense is ranked 61st in adjusted defense, with a 100.8 rating.
Omier has been a beast for the Bears down low and os one of the best defenders on top, how well he's playing on offense. He leads the team in rebounding and blocks, with 10.2 and one per game, respectively. Omier is the best player for the Bears down low, but they have more depth on the perimeter. Five players are averaging at least one steal, with Edgecombe being the best defender, and averaging 2.1 steals per game.
This defense has talent, but the consistency has not been there most of the year. They get a good matchup against a struggling TCU defense, and they should shut them down for most of this game.
TCU's offense has been the worst in the Big 12 and one of the worst for a power conference team this season. They score 67 points per game, have a 41.8% field-goal percentage, and shoot 29.3% three-pointers. In KenPom, TCU has the 179th-ranked adjusted offense, with a rating of 107.1.
Only three different Horned Frogs are averaging double digits in scoring this year. Reynolds is the best scorer on the roster, averaging 12.2 points per game. Vasean Allette has emerged as the assists leader, averaging 3.6 per game after Frankie Collins got injured earlier this season. They have not been able to move the ball all that well either, with the team only averaging 11.7 assists per game.
The key for the Horned Frogs is their defense because this offense has been terrible. They might have some success against Baylor with the game at home, but it's a bad matchup due to how inept this offense has been.
Why TCU Will Cover The Spread/Win
TCU's defense is solid but should be even better than they have been. They allow 69.1 points per game, 44.6% from the field, and 31.6% from behind the arc. On KenPom, this defense is ranked 32nd in adjusted defense, with a 97.4 rating.
Ernest Udeh Jr., down low, is easily the best defender on TCU. He leads the team in rebounding, blocks, and steals, averaging 7.5, 1.3, and 1.6 per game. Four total Horned Frogs are averaging one steal, including Udeh Jr., and this perimeter defense is better than what they have to offer down low.
The TCU defense should have some success in this game against Baylor with the game at home. Overall, this is a bad matchup where the Bears have the advantage.
Final Baylor-TCU Prediction & Pick
Baylor is the better team. Edgecombe and Omier are the best players in this game and should get theirs, even on the road against TCU. Baylor wins and covers and feels more safe with a win.
Final Baylor-TCU Prediction & Pick: Baylor -2.5 (-115)
