UFC Vegas 114: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos continues on the prelims with a fight between Bia Mesquita and Montserrat Rendon in the women's bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Mesquita-Rendon prediction and pick.
Bia Mesquita (6-0) has dominated every step of her transition from BJJ royalty to MMA standout. She crushed Sierra Dinwoodie by second-round TKO at LFA 211 in June 2025 before choking out Irina Alekseeva with a round-two rear-naked choke in her UFC debut, as she comes into her fight this weekend against Montserrat Rendon.
Montserrat Rendon (7-1) enters UFC Vegas 114 as a gritty decision specialist, with all seven wins coming on the cards. The Mexican bantamweight edged Alice Pereira by split decision at Noche UFC after dropping a unanimous decision to Darya Zheleznyakova, as she comes into his fight this weekend against Bia Mesquita.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds: Bia Mesquita-Montserrat Rendon Odds
Bia Mesquita: -625
Montserrat Rendon: +455
Over 1.5 rounds: -215
Under 1.5 rounds: +165
Why Bia Mesquita Will Win
Bia Mesquita enters this matchup with a ceiling Rendon simply can’t match. Her elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu background means every clinch, scramble and takedown attempt from Rendon carries serious submission risk.
Rendon is a decision-heavy grinder who thrives in slow, positional fights. That style plays directly into Mesquita’s strengths, giving her repeated chances to attack arms, necks and back takes in extended grappling exchanges.
On the feet, Mesquita has shown steady improvement in her boxing and in her comfort under fire. She no longer needs the perfect entry to drag opponents into her world; she can strike her way into clinches and create reactive shots.
Rendon’s lack of finishing threat is another key factor. If she can’t seriously hurt Mesquita or force her to back off, Mesquita will feel emboldened to take more risks hunting submissions and transitions.
Over three rounds, that combination of technical grappling superiority and rising confidence should tell. Expect Mesquita to systematically dismantle Rendon’s defensive frames, eventually finding the back or isolating a limb for a fight-ending squeeze.
Why Montserrat Rendon Will Win
Montserrat Rendon’s clearest path to an upset lies in her gritty, veteran experience and ability to make fights ugly. While Bia Mesquita is a world-class grappler, Rendon has the clinch strength and defensive framing to deny clean takedowns and keep the fight on the feet.
If Rendon can force a grueling, slow-paced kickboxing match, Mesquita’s striking defense and cardio will be severely tested over 15 minutes. Mesquita is used to running through opponents early, but Rendon thrives in deep waters and has never been finished in her professional career.
On the outside, Rendon can use her volume and movement to outpoint the Brazilian, darting in and out of range before Mesquita can initiate grappling exchanges. Even when tied up against the cage, Rendon’s cage-wrestling savvy allows her to stall the action, force referee separations, and frustrate her opponent.
As the fight drags into the later rounds, Mesquita’s desperation for a takedown could lead to sloppy, telegraphed entries. Rendon can capitalize on these mistakes by landing counter strikes and racking up crucial points on the judges' scorecards.
Ultimately, if Rendon avoids the mat and keeps the action strictly positional and striking-based, she can steal the momentum. By weaponizing her pace and durability, the Mexican standout has a very realistic chance of grinding out another hard-fought decision victory.
Final Bia Mesquita-Montserrat Rendon Prediction & Pick
This matchup looks like a classic specialist vs. grinder clash, with Bia Mesquita’s submission game pitted against Montserrat Rendon’s gritty, decision-heavy style. Early on, Rendon should try to turn this into a clinch-heavy, fence-wrestling fight to dull Mesquita’s explosiveness.
Mesquita, though, only needs a few clean grappling sequences to change everything. If she can force scrambles instead of static clinches, her timing on back takes, trips, and reactive shots should begin to surface and tilt the momentum in her favor.
On the feet, Rendon likely throws more volume and looks more comfortable in extended striking exchanges. But every overextension or level change that isn’t set up properly risks ending up in Mesquita’s world, where positional control quickly turns into submission threats.
The big question is whether Rendon can stay safe for 15 minutes without getting caught in a deep choke or joint lock. Given Mesquita’s pedigree and how quickly she transitions once she finds a dominant position, it’s hard to see Rendon completely shutting down those opportunities.
Rendon has moments with cage pressure and volume striking, but Mesquita eventually turns a scramble into a dominant position and finds a finish. Mesquita by submission in the mid-to-late rounds.
Final Bia Mesquita-Montserrat Rendon Prediction & Pick: Bia Mesquita (-625), Over 1.5 Rounds (-215)
