The UFC is back in action from The Apex in Las Vegas as we're back for another slate of fight predictions, kicking off in the Women's Strawweight Division. Venezuela's Piera Rodriguez will take on Washington's Sam Hughes of Fortis MMA to open the Prelims. Check our UFC odds series for the Rodriguez-Hughes prediction and pick.
Piera Rodriguez (11-2) has gone 4-2 inside the UFC since 2022. After dropping back-to-back bouts, she's responded with consecutive wins over Josefine Knutsson and Ketlen Souza looking to mount a winning streak as the betting favorite here. Rodriguez stands 5-foot-3 with a 63.5-inch reach.
Sam Hughes (11-6) has gone 6-5 inside the UFC since debuting in 2020. While she trades wins for losses early throughout her tenure, Hughes has mounted a three-fight winning streak of her own and could potentially break through the rankings with her fourth-straight. Hughes stands 5-foot-5 with a 64.5-inch reach.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds: Piera Rodriguez-Sam Hughes Odds
Piera Rodriguez: -155
Sam Hughes: +130
Over 2.5 rounds: -500
Under 2.5 rounds: +340
Why Piera Rodriguez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Ketlen Souza – S DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO
Piera Rodriguez faced a tough opponent her last time out in Ketlen Souza and fought towards a close split decision despite being billed the -260 betting favorite at closing. She actually slightly fell behind in the total striking numbers, but it was her seven takedowns out of 10 attempts that got ultimately got her the nod on the judges' scorecards. Her stock fell slightly as the favorite in this fight facing an equally dominant wrestler as her opponent this time around.
Piera Rodriguez is very aggressive with her striking and prefers a scrappy, kickboxing bout on the feet. She couldn't find her distance against Souza, which caused her to resort to the wrestling, but Rodriguez should be the more technical and skilled striker during this particular matchup. Look for her to be defending more takedowns than attempting shots in this bout.
Ultimately, if Piera Rodriguez can discourage the wrestling and keep Sam Hughes in a boxing bout, she should be the better fighter when it comes to utilizing her combinations and mixing in the kicking game as well. She's much more willing to take risks and throw her full striking arsenal at an opponent, so expect much of the same as she forces the exchanges in this one.
Why Sam Hughes Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Shauna Bannon – SUB (rear naked choke, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Sam Hughes has been on a tear the last three fights, most recently cashing in as the betting favorite against hyped prospect Shaun Bannon with an exclamation point of a submission finish. She's put the rest of the division on notice with her recent pefrormances, expecting to face top-15 competition if she can manage the underdog win here. A consistent grappler, she'll be welcoming any wrestling exchanges from Rodriguez during this one.
Sam Hughes is extremely balance with her striking and doesn't take too many chances when it comes to leaving herself exposed or selling out for the knockout finish. Once she has her opponent hurt, it's much more likely that we see Hughes take dominant position on the ground and exploit the gaps in her opponents' game.
Sam Hughes will also have conditioning on her side as she's been able to push an uncomfortable pace for most of her opponents. During her last bout, she didn't allow Bannon much of any room to work her striking, consistently pressuring and closing the distance to initiate the clinch. On the ground, expect the much higher upside of submission to be in Hughes' favor.
Final Piera Rodriguez-Sam Hughes Prediction & Pick
This should be a fairly close matchup to open the UFC Vegas 114 Prelims as both women are coming into this fight with significant momentum behind them. Piera Rodriguez has managed back-to-back wins, but her last came by split decision in a 50/50 fight. Sam Hughes has been much more dominant during her wins, but comes into this fight the betting underdog.
I think Piera Rodriguez is the much better striker and should look to keep this fight on the feet. However, Sam Hughes has been the better MMA submission artist and although Rodriguez boats the better striking numbers, Hughes could be seen as a bigger threat on the feet.
Still, I expect much of this fight to be a stalemate with Piera Rodriguez landing the heavier, more damaging shots. She should be the one dishing the more significant damage and will earn the decision win if she can come out of this bout relatively unscathed.
Final Piera Rodriguez-Sam Hughes Prediction & Pick: Piera Rodriguez (-155); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-550)
