Things are heating up at UFC Vegas 114: Emmett vs. Vallejos as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Welterweight (170) Division. Xtreme Couture's own Chris Curtis will take on Myktybek Orolbai of Kyrgyzstan in a high-level matchup on the Prelims. Check our UFC odds series for the Curtis-Orolbai prediction and pick.
Chris Curtis (32-12) has gone 6-4-0-1 inside the UFC since 2021. After losing back-to-back fights against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov, he beat Max Griffin via split decision his last time out and hopes to cash in as the underdog during this tilt.
Myktybek Orolbai (15-2-1) is 4-1 since debuting in 2023, most recently knocking out Jack Hermansson with an overhand right in the first round. He's been able to finish three of his four UFC wins inside the distance and will have a willing dance partner in Curtis.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 114 Odds: Chris Curtis-Myktybek Orolbai Odds
Chris Curtis: +225
Myktybek Orolbai: -278
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
Why Chris Curtis Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Max Griffin – S DEC
- Last 5: 2-2-0-1
- Finishes: 15 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Chris Curtis clearly lost the first round during his last fight against Max Griffin, but rallied in the second and third rounds with active boxing to edge the close win on the judges' scorecards. Curtis has been known to start slow in the past as he's more concerned with gauging distance and getting a feel for his opponent's timing. This time around, he'll have to be worried about a multifaceted approach from Orolbai that could include the wrestling.
Curtis is at his best, however, when he's able to let his hands fly inside the pocket. He's a very defensively-minded boxer and utilizes his Philly shell to roll off punches while using his head movement. He doesn't typically take a ton of damage and can usually hurt his opponents before they're able to land clean on him, but he'll still have to work on a productive first round and not falling behind in the striking numbers.
To be successful here, Curtis will have to be the aggressor and initiate Orolbai on his own terms. He can't allow his opponent to dictate the pace and where this fight takes place because it'll be tough for him to fight back when he's acting defensively and on his back foot. Curtis will need a strong start to this fight where he manages the second round and steps back on the gas with his pressure and cardio in the third round.
Why Myktybek Orolbai Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jack Hermansson – KO (overhand right, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Myktybek Orolbai made quick work of Jack Hermansson his last time out, clearly catching him on a bad night and landing a clean overhand right while Hermansson was too slow to defend. Initially coming into the UFC as a submission grappler, Orolbai has done a ton of work to improve his striking and has looked decisive on the feet over his last few bouts. Hermansson is no easy win and if he's able to dominate Chris Curtis with his striking, he could make the move to facing top-15 competition during his next upcoming bouts.
Orolbai has managed to stand in the cage with volatile strikers like Uros Medic and Elves Brener since arriving to the UFC, almost always looking like the more measured fighter while calculating his counter striking. He's been responsive in initiating the grappling in the past, but given the strong wrestler Curtis is, we can expect Orolbai to welcome a kickboxing bout largely taking place on the feet.
The biggest concern for Orolbai will be the fluid boxing of Chris Curtis and learning how to disrupt his timing. Curtis' boxing is very clean and precise, but Orolbai can throw things off by mixing in the leg kicks and initiating the clinch to score elbows and knees from in close. The dirtier Orolbai can make this fight appear, the more it'll benefit him over the course of three rounds.
Final Chris Curtis-Myktybek Orolbai Prediction & Pick
This should be another high-level bout on the Prelims and it's surprising to see Chris Curtis such a wide betting underdog given his strong grappling abilities and clean advantage in the boxing. However, he's been known to start slow in the past and his last bout against Max Griffin showed that he wasn't able to put things together for a full three rounds. Against Orolbai, a start like that may prove costly in trying to defend the constant and consistent striking pressure from his opponent.
Still, we'll have to roll with Myktybek Orolbai as he's been far more consistent and should offer solid resistance to anything Curtis will throw at him en route to a likely decision.
Final Chris Curtis-Myktybek Orolbai Prediction & Pick: Myktybek Orolbai (-278); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-154)
