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The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks take on the Montana State Bobcats. Check out our Big Sky Championship odds series for our Northern Arizona Montana State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Northern Arizona Montana State.
The NCAA Tournament is usually the domain of teams with winning records. At the top of the bracket, the No. 1 seeds have close to 30 wins when the NCAA Tournament begins. Bubble teams which barely make the NCAA Tournament have 20 to 22 wins. Occasionally, a team with 18 or 19 wins gets into the tournament because it has a lot of high-quality wins which offset the 10 to 12 losses on the resume. One thing you will also see sometimes is a team with a .500 record but which lost a lot of close games in its mid-major conference season win the conference tournament as a No. 5 or 6 seed, making the NCAAs with a 16-16 or 17-15 record. For the smaller conferences, those teams go to Dayton for the First Four as a No. 16 seed.
One thing we have never seen at the NCAA Tournament, however, is a team 11 games under .500 make the Big Dance. We are one game away from seeing that. The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are trying to make a special kind of history. They were 7-22 in the regular season. They have won three games in the Big Sky Tournament to make this championship game against No. 2 seed Montana State. If the Lumberjacks win, they get in with an 11-22 record. Let's see what happens.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Northern Arizona-Montana State Big Sky Championship odds.
Big Sky Championship Odds: Northern Arizona-Montana State Odds
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: +7.5 (-110)
Montana State Bobcats: -7.5 (-110)
Over: 133.5 (-110)
Under: 133.5 (-110)
How To Watch Northern Arizona vs. Montana State
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 11:30 p.m. ET, 8:30 p.m. PT
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*Watch Northern Arizona-Montana State LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*
Why Northern Arizona Could Cover the Spread
This is not a good team, but it is a team which is on a roll. Northern Arizona has caught fire this week. It beat a really good Eastern Washington team in the Big Sky Tournament to get to this point. Eastern Washington won 18 games in a row earlier this season. The Eagles are good! Northern Arizona took them out. NAU has a superstar-level player, too, someone who can take his teammates on his back and carry them all the way. Jalen Cone is the name. He has a big-league game. He scored 28 points in the semifinals to bring NAU within one win of history. If he has a 30- or 35-point game in his bag, NAU really could win.
The other thing to note about NAU strictly in terms of covering the spread is that the Lumberjacks lost a ton of close games this season. You might recall the ridiculous full-length pass and last-second shot by Portland State to beat NAU at the buzzer. That highlight vent viral. NAU lost a lot of heartbreakers this season. The 10-22 record is bad, but the ‘Jacks played a lot better than their record might indicate. They're also playing a Montana State team which really struggled to score in its double-overtime win over Weber State on Tuesday in the Big Sky semifinals. Montana State shot under 35 percent from the field and under 30 percent from 3-point range. NAU can certainly keep this game close against an inconsistent offense.
Why Montana State Could Cover the Spread
This is the second-best team in the Big Sky behind Eastern Washington, the team which won 18 straight games earlier this season. This is a good, solid team which plays great defense. Montana State won its Big Sky semifinal by allowing only 58 points in 50 game minutes. Scoring only 60 in a double-overtime game is not great, but MSU was able to compensate for its lack of offense by playing spectacular defense. Montana State is a better team than NAU and should be able to put the clamps on the Lumberjacks, who have to be exhausted by playing all these games to reach the final.
Final Northern Arizona-Montana State Prediction & Pick
This is a game in which Montana State should be able to take control and remain in control. Take Montana State.
Final Northern Arizona-Montana State Prediction & Pick: Montana State -7.5
