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Boise State and UNLV are the best teams in the Group of Five this season. They both have one loss, each being to a Power Five team. Whoever wins this game has the inside track to the Group of Five spot in the 12-team CFP. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Boise State-UNLV prediction and pick.
Boise State has been nothing short of great this season. They are 5-1 and have been one of the best stories in college football this season. They have only one loss to Oregon; it was neck and neck the entire game. UNLV is a great team, and the Broncos will have a huge challenge because the winner of this game will also have the inside track to the Mountain West title.
UNLV has also been a great story this year, with a 6-1 record. Their only loss this year is an extremely close overtime game against Syracuse. They were embroiled in a PR nightmare after their starting quarterback, Matthew Sluka, accused them of not paying his NIL, but they have responded well. The Rebels have a huge matchup in this game against the Broncos and benefit from being at home in Las Vegas.
Here are the Boise State-UNLV College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Boise State-UNLV Odds
Boise State: -3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -162
UNLV: +3.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +134
Over: 66.5 (-105)
Under: 66.5 (-115)
How to Watch Boise State vs. UNLV
Time: 10:30 pm ET/7:30 pm PT
TV: CBSSN
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Boise State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Boise State has been great this season. They have the best offense in the Mountain West. They are averaging 523 yards and 46.8 points per game. Then, in yards, they are tied for fourth in the country and third in points scored. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been a steady force on this offense. He has 1,273 passing yards, 12 passing touchdowns, and two interceptions with a 63.8% completion percentage. Cameron Camper has also been solid in the receiving game, with 441 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 25 receptions. The running game is the key for the Broncos because Ashton Jeanty is a bona fide star and is a legitimate contender for the Heirman Trophy. Jeanty has 1,248 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on 126 carries. His stats are incredible, and the Broncos still have six more games.
The Boise State defense has been solid this season, allowing 26.2 points per game and 382 yards per game. The defense has been solid but nothing special because they have not had to be special due to how well the offense is playing. The Broncos have been great against the ground game, ranking second in the Mountain West in rushing yards allowed at 105.7 yards, but they have struggled against the pass, allowing 276.3 yards through the air. UNLV has a new quarterback in Hajj-Malik Williams, and he has the ability to light it up through the air, more so than Sluka did, so this Broncos defense needs to step up.
Why UNLV Could Cover The Spread/Win
UNLV has been a great story this season, and their offense is the story. They are averaging 43.6 points per game and 429.1 total yards per game. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has stepped in seamlessly this season after Matthew Sluka left the program. He has 838 passing yards, 10 passing touchdowns, and two interceptions with a 70.5% completion percentage. Ricky White III has been a star for the Rebels in the receiving corps. He has 614 receiving yards and nine touchdowns on 46 receptions, and he is also a matchup nightmare for any team, regardless of whether it is Group of Five or Power Four. The running game has also been very good for the Rebels, thanks to their balance. Williams leads the way, running the ball with 390 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 61 carries. Then, Jai'Den Thomas is just behind him with 356 yards and three touchdowns on 62 carries. Finally, Kylin James has 325 yards and three touchdowns on 47 carries.
UNLV's defense has been solid this season. They allow 22.6 points per game, the best scoring defense in the Mountain West. They also allow 382 yards per game. The running and passing defense for the Rebels could not be more different. They have the best-rushing defense in the Mountain West, allowing 104.4 yards per game on the ground. Then, they allow the most passing yards per game this season at 278.7. This will be a huge matchup for the Rebels defense because Jeanty is the best running back this defense will see all year.
Final Boise State-UNLV Prediction & Pick
There is a lot to like with UNLV. This offense is balanced and feels rejuvenated with Hajj-Malik Williams under center, and the defense has a lot to like. However, nothing is slowing down this Boise State train. The Broncos will have the best player in this game thanks to Jeanty, and then Maddux Madsen has been solid and can do more if they need him to. Expect this to be one of the year's best games, but Boise State should win and cover on the road.
Final Boise State-UNLV Prediction & Pick: Boise State -3.5 (-110)
