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The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals play their second of a four-game series on Friday night. The teams already had a four-game set this year at Truist Park, with the Nationals stealing three of four games. The Nationals were heavy favorites in each game. It's hard to believe that the Nationals have won six of their last ten games against the Braves, considering the teams' success over the past few seasons. However, it seems like the Nationals have the Braves' number. Washington could make things interesting in the National League East with another successful series here, as they are just eight games back of the Braves in the division. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Nationals prediction and pick.
Braves-Nationals Projected Starters
Chris Sale vs. Jake Irvin
Chris Sale (8-1) with a 3.06 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP
Last Start: vs. Oakland – 4 IP, 4 SO, 9 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 2 HR
2024 Road Splits: (2-1) with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.11. WHIP
Jake Irvin (3-5) with a 3.39 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP
Last Start: @ Cleveland – 6 IP, 6 SO, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 ER
2024 Home Splits: (0-4) with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Nationals Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-126)
Moneyline: -215
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+105)
Moneyline: +180
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (100)
How to Watch Braves vs. Nationals
Time: 6:45 PM ET/3:45 PM PT
TV: MASN, Bally Sports Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
Despite Chris Sale's recent blowup, the Braves own the pitching matchup in this game. It was hard to believe that Sale could maintain his pace of allowing one or fewer earned runs over his past six starts. However, he isn't as bad as his last outing against the Athletics. The Braves would be content with him performing somewhere in the middle of that, but with the Braves' recent injury woes, they need Sale to give them as much help as possible.
Irvin has been better for the Nationals, but his splits at Nationals Park are concerning. He's much more comfortable away from home, which makes this a spot for the Braves to jump on him.
The Braves have the 12th-best wOBA in the MLB against righties with a .311 mark, but their batted ball numbers prove it should be better. They have the second-best hard-hit percentage on batted balls, getting it on 34.6% of their contact.
The Nationals have one of the worst wOBAs at home against lefties, with a .278 mark. It's better than three teams: the Padres, White Sox, and Blue Jays.
Why The Nationals Will Cover The Spread/Win
If Cole Irvin can keep this game close for the Nationals, their bullpen could win the game for them in the later innings. The Nationals bullpen has a better WHIP and BABIP over the last two weeks.
Some teams perform better against certain opponents, which seems like the case for the Nationals. There aren't many teams that the Nationals have a winning record against over the past two seasons, and one of the last teams you'd expect them to have it against is the Braves. However, they've won three of four this season and six of their last ten.
Final Braves-Nationals Prediction & Pick
One area where the Nationals are better than the Braves is in the bullpen, but the Nationals' relievers may be getting lucky while the Braves bullpen has been more unlucky. The Nationals relievers are giving up hard contact on 37.9% of their batted balls over the last two weeks, while the Braves are giving up just 28.8%.
The Braves own the advantage everywhere else, including in the pitching matchup, where it matters with the starters. Take the Braves to avenge their series loss to the Nationals last week and get back into form at Nationals Park.
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Final Braves-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Braves -1.5 (-126)
