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The Braves make the trip to San Diego to face the Padres! Both teams have winning records with the Braves being the better team in comparison. The Braves are playing much better than the Padres leading into this series. Our MLB odds series has our Braves-Padres prediction, odds, and pick for Friday.
Braves-Padres Projected Starters
Spencer Schwellenbach vs. Randy Vasquez
Spencer Schwellenbach (2-4) with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched six innings and gave up one run on seven hits with zero walks and six strikeouts in a Braves win.
2024 Road Splits: (0-2) 6.89 ERA
Randy Vasquez (2-4) with a 4.66 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP
Last Start: Pitched 6.1 innings and gave up two runs on six hits with one walk and six strikeouts in a Padres win.
2024 Home Splits: (1-2) 3.41 ERA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Padres Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+122)
Moneyline: -132
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-146)
Moneyline: +112
Over: 8.5 (+100)
Under: 8.5 (-122)
How to Watch Braves vs. Padres
Time: 9:40 pm ET
Article Continues Below
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Braves have come out strong this season. They are 51-40 and have won four out of their last five games. Their offense has taken a massive dip and is around average after being one of the best in the league. Their pitching has stayed great and they are in the top five in the MLB. Max Fried, Reynaldo Lopez, and Chris Sale have all had varying levels of success up to this point. On offense, Marcell Ozuna has dominated at the plate for Atlanta, with Orlando Arcia, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II not far behind. The Braves have lost some steam recently, but are still the most talented teams in the MLB.
The Braves are starting Spence Schwellenbach on the mound. He has a 2-4 record, a 5.02 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. He has allowed 21 runs on 39 hits with nine walks and 38 strikeouts through 37.2 innings. He has started in seven games so far this season and the Braves are 2-5 in those games. Schwellenbach has struggled in a limited capacity for the Braves on the mound. He gets a difficult matchup against the second-best offense in the MLB the Padres.
The Braves offense has taken a huge dip and is 18th in the MLB in batting average up to this point in the season at .243. This is after they led the entire MLB in batting average last season at .276. Marcell Ozuna has been great for the Braves to open the season and leads the way in most batting categories. Ozuna leads the way in batting average at .296, in home runs at 24, in RBI at 75, in OBP at .374, and in total hits at 100. The Braves offense can compete with anyone in the league based on their talent, and they get a favorable matchup against Randy Vasquez and how much he has struggled in San Diego this year.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Padres have been inconsistent but have an overall winning record of 49-47 this season. They come into this game on a four-game losing streak. The key has been their offense this season where they are second in the league. In comparison, their pitching is in the bottom half of the MLB. Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth have been the biggest keys behind the plate, and why the Padres have surprised a bit as a team. Their pitching needs help with only Matt Waldron and Yu Darvish playing well so far up to this point in the season.
The Padres are starting Randy Vasquez on the mound. He has a 2-4 record, a 4.66 ERA, and a 1.60 WHIP. Through 58 innings, he has allowed 33 runs on 79 hits with 14 walks and 38 strikeouts. He has started in 12 games so far this season and the Padres have gone 5-7 in those games. Vasquez has struggled for the Padres this season and has been a weak link in an already bad pitching staff. He gets a decent matchup against a Braves offense that has taken a huge dip recently but is still full of talent and stars.
The Padres' offense has started the season playing great. They are second in team batting average at .263 after finishing with a .244 average last season. The offense is highlighted mainly by Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. in most of the batting categories. Profar leads the way in batting average at .311, is tied with Tatis Jr. in home runs at 14, and leads in RBI at 59, in OBP at .402, and finally in total hits at 101. Their offense can compete with any team in the MLB. This is a great matchup for them against Randy Vasquez because of how much he has struggled in San Diego up to this point in the season.
Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick
The Braves have all the momentum heading into this series, while the Padres are on a losing streak. Usually, it would come down to pitching, but both Schwellenbach and Vasquez are very similar and have struggled so far this year. This comes down to which offense can take advantage and the Padres have more trust right now behind the plate. Expect the Padres to cover at home and potentially win a close game.
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Final Braves-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres +1.5 (-146)
