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The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 3 of a 4-game set at Petco Park. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Brewers-Padres prediction and pick.
Brewers-Padres Projected Starters
Carlos Rodriguez vs. Randy Vasquez
Carlos Rodriguez (0-2) with a 6.48 ERA in 8.1 innings. He has seven strikeouts with a 1.92 WHIP.
Last Start: 4.2 innings, six hits, five earned runs, two walks, and three K's against the Los Angeles Angels.
2024 Road Splits: The only road start of his career was in the 5-3 loss to the Angels. His ERA on the road is 7.71.
Randy Vasquez (1-4) with a 5.70 ERA in 42.2 innings. He has 28 K's and a 1.69 WHIP.
Last Start: 4.1 innings, 12 hits, six earned runs, two walks, and two strikeouts in the 9-2 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.
2024 Home Splits: (0-2) with a 4.43 ERA in four starts.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Padres Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+158)
Moneyline: +102
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-192)
Moneyline: -120
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
How to Watch Brewers vs. Padres
Time: 7:15 ET/4:15 PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
Note: All statistics are prior to Friday night's game against the Padres
The Brewers own the third-best record in the Nationals League and as a matter of fact, would host the Padres in the Wild Card round if the season were to end today. They are aiming to rebound in Game 2 Friday night after falling in Game 1 where they take on a tough Dylan Cease. For Game 3 on the national state on FOX, they face a much worse pitcher. Vasquez allowed six runs off 12 hits last time out but it did come against one of the top offenses in the league. The Brewers know they have a chance to get the bats going with a chance to score a ton of runs.
William Contreras went 0-4 in the first game but has put together an all-star campaign. He leads the team with a .300 average, 89 hits, and 135 total bases. Willy Adames might be the most powerful shortstop in the game as he has knocked in more homers than any shortstop since 2021. He has 13 on the year with 54 RBIs. He smashed one Thursday night to dead center. With Christian Yelich and Rhys Hoskins back healthy, they have the talent to beat anyone. Expect them to put up a serious fight against the Friars in this contest.
Trevor MeGill has emerged as one of the game's top closers as he is 10th in saves with 15 after not starting the season as the team's closer. He has a 2.01 ERA with 27 K's in 22.1 innings. If they can earn a lead with him coming into the game, they should hold on for the win. Bryan Hudson has also been stellar with a 0.90 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 46 K's in 40 innings.
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Note: All statistics are prior to Friday night's game against the Brewers
The Padres were victorious in the opener thanks to the long ball. They smashed four in the win and Jake Cronenworth sent the walk-off deep to right field in the bottom of the 9th. That was their third consecutive walk-off. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 4-5 in the win and even hit a homer himself. He's one of the league's hottest hitters batting .370 with a .425 OBP and has an OPS of 1.069 in the month of June. Another hitter on fire is the rookie Jackson Merrill. The young kid is becoming a star before our very eyes. Merrill is batting .279 with nine homers and 31 RBIs. He leads all rookies in home runs and has six in his last eight games.
Luiz Arraez is going through what he considers a hitting slump, yet, it's still better than the average hitter. Arraez is still hitting .315 on the year and .328 with the Friars since joining them from the Marlins. Jurickson Profar is second in the league in average at .321 and has 10 bombs and 48 RBIs on the year. Profar should and likely will be an all-star this season. He is batting .336 at home. The Padres as a whole are slowly hitting the ball better at home, if that improves, they should cover this spread.
Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick
Both teams will likely make the postseason with the talent on each side. If the Padres pitching can get healthy then they can beat anyone. They proved that in the first game of the series. However, for this pick, we aren't taking a winner. Neither starter is reliable and with the over/under at a decent number, I love the Over here.
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Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Over 9 (-105)
