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It is a battle for Canada to start the NHL season as the Montreal Canadiens face the Toronto Maple Leafs. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a Canadiens-Maple Leafs prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Montreal finished in last place in the Atlantic division last year. They were 31-45-6 last year with just 68 points. They also had the second-worst record in the Eastern Conference, while also sitting with the second-worst goal differential. Last year was all about developing new talent for the Canadiens. Nick Suzuki is back, as is Cole Caufield and Kirby Dach. They scored a combined 66 goals last year with 74 assists. They also brought in Alex Newhook from Colorado to add some depth. He had 14 goals last year with 16 assists and will provide solid depth.
The Maple Leafs will be looking to win the division for the first time in a non-Covid season since the 1999-2000 season. Last year was solid hitting 111 points, and their second straight 50-win season. Still, many of the mid-season trades from last year are now gone. Ryan O'Reilly, Erik Gustafsson, and Luke Schenn all left. To replace them Tyle Bertuzzi, Max Domi, and John Klingberg all joined the team. Bertuzzi broke onto the scene with a 62-point season in 2021-22 but was down last year and will be looking to rebound. Max Domi looks to be better than he was in Dallas last year, as he struggled to find his groove after being traded to Dallas.
Here are the NHL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NHL Odds: Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Odds
Montreal Canadiens: +1.5 (+100)
Toronto Maple Leafs: -1.5 (-120)
Over: 6.5 (-120)
Under: 6.5 (-102)
How to Watch Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: NHLPP/ESPN+
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Canadiens Will Cover The Spread
Article Continues Below
The young core of the Canadiens will be attempting to make the next step this year. Nick Suzuki is a major part of that. Last year he scored 26 goals and 40 assists in 82 games. He was highly effective and had to step into a goal-scoring role with injuries to many of the primary goal-scorers. He was the only player on the roster to play all 82 games last year and was just one of two players to play over 70 games. The other major goal scorer last year was Cole Caufield. He scored 26 goals and ten assists last year in just 46 games. He was averaging almost a point per game before going down with an injury. Caufield did not play after mid-January though, and will be a welcome addition back to the line-up.
Kirby Dach missed a lot of time last year. He played just four games after mid-February last year. Still, in 58 games last year, he scored 14 goals and 24 assists. While the offense looks to improve, the defense has to be better this year. Jordan Harris will be one of the guys looking to step up. He was just -3 in plus/minus on the ice, but he struggled for large parts of the season. He will be paired with David Savard, who was -14 last year, but the pairing looks like it will be solid and better this year.
Jake Allen will be in goal in this game. He was 15-24-3 last year with a 3.55 goals-against average. Alle also had a .891 save percentage. He faced the most shots since playing for the Blues in the 2017-18 season. It was also the worst season of his career. While he faced more shots in both the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons, he let in nearly a goal less per game and had a save percentage 15 points higher. If Allen can get back to that, the Canadiens will be in a much better situation.
Why The Maple Leafs Will Cover The Spread
For Toronto, it all starts with the top line. Mitchell Marner was great last year for the Maple Leafs. He scored 30 goals and 69 assists last year for a total of 99 points. Austin Matthews is the top-line center, and he scored 40 last year with 45 assists for a total of 85 points. He was great on the power play as well with 13 goals and 15 assists on the power play. Tyler Bertuzzi will be joining them on the top line. He scored eight goals last year and 22 assists. He joins after a tough stretch in Boston last year and will be looking to regain the form he once had.
The second line is solid as well with William Nylander and John Tavares. Nylander scored 40 goals last year, tied with Matthews for the most on the team. He also had 47 assists last year, giving him 87 points, which was good for second on the team. Meanwhile, Tavares had 36 goals and 44 assists. Joining them will be another new addition Max Domi, who will be looking to replace the 49 points of Michael Bunting from last year.
Ilya Samsonov will be in goal for the Maple Leafs. he was 27-10-5 last year with a 2.33 goals-against average while having a .919 save percentage. In his first season with Toronto, he had the best season of his career. He also started the most games of his career. If he can start a few more games this year and keep up the quality play, Toronto will make a run at winning the division and potentially bringing a Stanley Cup to Toronto.
Final Canadiens-Maples Leafs Prediction & Pick
Toronto brings back each of their top four-point scorers from last year and a potent offense. They also brought in some solid additions. They are facing a goalie who struggled with shot volume last year and heavily struggled to stop barrages of shots. When Jake Allen faced over 30 shots in a game, his save percentage plummeted last season. Toronto will be getting plenty of pucks on the net tonight. Still, the Canadiens' new defensive pairings will limit a lot of the shot barrages. They are good at getting in passing lanes and should help out. If Montreal can stay out of the box, they will have a much better shot tonight. Expect plenty of goals in this one, but Toronto to come out on top.
Final Candiens-Maple Leafs Prediction & Pick: Toronto -1.5 (-120) and Over 6.5 (-120)
