The NBA is back in action as we bring you another prediction and pick for the conclusion of this Eastern Conference season series. The Boston Celtics (50-25) visit the Miami Heat (40-36) as Boston looks to sweep, leading 3-0. Check our NBA odds series for the Celtics-Heat prediction and pick.
The Boston Celtics are second in the Eastern Conference, 4.5 games behind the Detroit Pistons after dropping their most recent outing 112-102 to the Atlanta Hawks. They've clinched playoff position and can still catch the Pistons at the one-seed, looking to do so as road favorites against the Heat.
The Miami Heat are ninth in the Eastern standings, clinching play-in position after beating the Philadelphia 76ers 119-109 their last time out. The Heat are tied with Charlotte (40-36) in the standings, so these final few games will decide their No. 9 or No. 10 seeding for the play-in.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Celtics vs. Heat Odds
Boston Celtics: -4.5 (-118)
Miami Heat: +4.5 (-102)
Over: 228.5 (-110)
Under: 228.5 (-110)
Celtics vs. Heat Key Injuries
Boston: Ron Harper Jr. (ankle – Questionable) / Nikola Vucevic (finger – OUT)
Miami: Andrew Wiggins (toe – Questionable) / Norman Powell (illness – OUT)
Celtics vs. Heat Betting Trends
- The Miami Heat are 24-14 at home this season. The Boston Celtics are 24-14 on the road.
- The Celtics have gone 39-14 as favorites. The Heat are 17-21 as underdogs.
- The Heat are 44-32 ATS overall, 22-16 ATS at home. The Celtics are 43-32 ATS overall, 24-14 ATS on the road.
- The Celtics are 9-1 outright, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Miami Heat.
- The Heat are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Boston's last six games.
- The total has gone OVER in seven of Miami's last nine games.
- The Heat are 27-19 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents.
Keys to Celtics vs. Heat Matchup
This season series has been all Boston Celtics, leading three games to none despite winning the last two by a combined margin of just seven points. It's been a different leading scorer for the Celtics each time out as Derrick White (33), Anfernee Simons (39), Jaylen Brown (29) have all taken turns as the game's leading scorers as well. The dynamic in this fourth meeting obviously changes with Jayson Tatum back out on the floor as the Celtics have gone 9-2 since his return from injury.
Posting a season-high of 32 points in a recent win over the Charlotte Hornets, Jayson Tatum finally looked like his old self and an efficient version of that, going 12/23 from the field his last time out. After sitting during their last loss, Tatum should be motivated to return in this game and put forth his contributions. Jaylen Brown was one assist shy of a triple-double (29p/10r/9a) during their last game, so expect both him and Tatum to be aggressive on the road in looking for this sweep.
The Heat fueled a comeback effort in their last game behind 30 points from Tyler Herro while Bam Adebayo added 16 rebounds in a dominant effort. Both Adebayo and Herro are playing some of their best basketball down the stretch, so players like Andrew Wiggins (15.6 PPG) and Davion Mitchell (9.0 PPG) will especially be able to put their team over in close games if they're able to convert on offensive opportunities.
These are two of the better rebounding teams in the league as Miami (46.7 RPG, 3rd NBA) slightly outpaces Boston (46.5 RPG, 4th NBA). The Celtics have actually led the rebounding totals in two of their three wins despite Miami leading for large chunks of the minutes from the overall series.
Celtics vs. Heat Prediction and Pick
While these two teams may be very close statistically and on paper, the Celtics have been able to manage the scoring bursts and dominant rebounding of the Miami Heat through three games this season. With Jayson Tatum returning for the Celtics and facing a familiar foe, he should put together another great performance coming off a 32-point game.
This game should come down to whichever team can play the better defense down the stretch and the Celtics have been proving their ability to do so over this recent stretch. They're locked-in on trying to chase the Pistons at No. 1 without Cade Cunningham while the Heat may be locked-in on the impending play-in tournament.
Both teams have been very good against the spread both on the road and at home, making this a difficult game to call. Simply basing it off recent trends, the Celtics are the hotter team and have looked strong with Jayson Tatum in the lineup. It should be too much firepower from Boston on both ends of the floor, so let's roll with the Celtics to cover for our final prediction.
Final Celtics-Heat Prediction & Pick: Boston Celtics -4.5 (-118); OVER 228.5 (-110)
