We're back with another prediction and pick for NBA Wednesday as we conclude the slate with this Western Conference rivalry in the Bay Area, The San Antonio Spurs (57-18) visit the Golden State Warriors (36-39) in their fourth and final game, Golden State leading the season series 2-1. Check our NBA odds series for the Spurs-Warriors prediction and pick.
The San Antonio Spurs are second in the Western Conference, 2.5 games back of the Oklahoma City Thunder following their most recent 129-114 win over the Chicago Bulls. Guaranteed at least the two-seed in the West, they'll look for their tenth-straight victory as double-digit favorites in this one.
The Golden State Warriors are tenth in the Western Conference, most recently losing 116-93 to the Denver Nuggets. They're the last team in the conference to clinch a play-in position and without much movement available to them, they'll look ahead towards the play-in tournament.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Spurs vs. Warriors Odds
San Antonio Spurs: -13.5 (-112)
Golden State Warriors: +13.5 (-108)
Over: 225.5 (-115)
Under: 225.5 (-105)
Spurs vs. Warriors Key Injuries
San Antonio: Luke Kornet (knee – OUT)
Golden State: Gary Payton II (knee – Questionable) / Gui Santos (pelvis – Questionable) / Jimmy Butler III (knee – OUT) / Stephen Curry (knee – OUT) / Al Horford (calf – OUT) / De'Anthony Melton (thumb – OUT) / Moses Moody (knee – OUT) / Kristaps Porzingis (illness – OUT) / Quinten Post (foot – OUT)
Spurs vs. Warriors Betting Trends
- The Golden State Warriors are 21-15 at home. The San Antonio Spurs are 28-12 on the road.
- The Spurs have gone 46-12 as betting favorites. The Warriors are 8-20 as underdogs.
- The Warriors are 32-43 ATS overall, 15-21 ATS at home. The Spurs are 43-33 ATS overall, 23-17 ATS on the road.
- The Warriors are 6-4 in their last 10 games against the Spurs. The Spurs are 6-4 ATS in those games.
- The Spurs have won their last nine consecutive games.
- The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Spurs' last six games.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of the Warriors' last 12 games.
Keys to Spurs vs. Warriors Matchup
In a shocking turn of events, the Golden State Warriors can actually take this series 3-1 against one of the best teams in the NBA. The Warriors are just one of three NBA teams (Cavaliers, Timberwolves) that own a winning record over the San Antonio Spurs, notching both wins behind 46-point and 49-point outings from Stephen Curry. Both wins came before December 2025, however, and the two sides' latest meeting in February was a convincing 126-113 win for the Spurs. Without Stephen Curry to bail the Warriors out this time around, it doesn't look likely they'll finish this series with a decisive win.
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have been on a rampage the last two months and this recent nine-game winning streak has them establishing dominance over teams early and coasting to the finish line in the second half. They're going to be very tough to beat in a seven-game series and their defense has picked things up behind De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. Wembanyama is arguably the most impactful defender in the game today and is likely to wreck this game no differently as the Spurs are looking to win-out on the season.
This matchup is always intriguing as we see Wembanyama, the NBA's newest force on defense, facing off against an all-time elite defender in Draymond Green. Green has been vocal about his respect for Wembanyama's game and it'll be a treat watching these two display their versatile games – Wembanyama with his deep shooting and Green with his playmaking and facilitating. Still, we give the edge to the Spurs considering the injuries to Porzingis and Horford for the Warriors. Quinten Post and Gui Santos being out puts them in an even tougher spot as Brandin Podziemski will have to navigate with two of the league's better perimeter defenders guarding him.
The Spurs' bench has also been getting solid playing time thanks to their ability to grow leads by the fourth quarter. Dylan Harper and Keldon Johnson are maturing as players and should have many more opportunities to make plays throughout the upcoming NBA playoffs.
Spurs vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick
Despite what has happened in the first two games, Stephen Curry being out during this game is the biggest crutch for the Warriors. They're just 13-23 without him this season and the Spurs could have an unexpected chip on their shoulders looking to even this season. The last 20 games have shown they're intent on winning a championship this season and their path continues with another win on the road.
For our final prediction, let's roll with the San Antonio Spurs to cover on the road as this total remains under.
Final Spurs-Warriors Prediction & Pick: San Antonio Spurs -13.5 (-112); UNDER 225.5 (-105)
