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The Kansas City Chiefs head to Southern California to take on the Los Angeles Chargers for a Week 4 matchup at SoFi Stadium. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Chiefs-Chargers prediction and pick.
The Chiefs are 3-0 and lead the AFC West Division as they always do. There is no surprise there. They are coming off a win over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. Once again, late-game chaos turns the blame on the officials and that is what headlines the media. Either way, the Chiefs continue to find success when it matters. For the first time in the new Jim Harbaugh era, we will see a chess match between him and Andy Reid. This will be a fun matchup for years to come.
Los Angeles lost their first game of the season in a 20-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sitting at 2-1, the Bolts are second in the division which is where they will likely finish the season. The good news for LA is they already have a win over the Las Vegas Raiders, which makes them the only team in the AFC West that is 1-0 in the division. The new-look Chargers have impressed but injuries have taken over. An upset win over the Chiefs at home could catapult them into playoff contention before Week 5.
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Chiefs-Chargers Odds
Kansas City Chiefs: -7 (-118)
Moneyline: -375
Los Angeles Chargers: +7 (-104)
Moneyline: +300
Over: 39.5 (-115)
Under: 39.5 (-105)
How to Watch Chiefs vs. Chargers
Time: 4:25 ET/1:25 PT
TV: CBS
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Chiefs Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Chiefs will not have running back Isaiah Pacheco. Because of that, I expect the Chiefs to pass the ball as many times as possible. The Chargers' rush defense is elite and the defense as a whole has been great this season. Joey Bosa is banged up, which could help the Chiefs' passing game even more. LA ranks 6th in rush defense and 10th in pass defense, putting them 3rd overall.
Patrick Mahomes needs to get Travis Kelce involved. Kelce tends to play great against the Chargers and he has great news heading into the game. Chargers' star safety Derwin James is suspended for this contest, and former retired safety Tony Jefferson will take his place. Kelce has just eight catches for 69 yards on the season. He has yet to reach the endzone.
The team cannot rely on Carson Steele to do any damage against a Jim Harbagh-run defense. Unless he is inside the 10 in a goal-line situation, Steele may not see many touches. I expect Samaje Perine to see action in the passing game and who knows, maybe even Kareem Hunt.
Depending on the health of Justin Herbert, this contest could go so many different ways for the Bolts' offense. If he does not play, the Chiefs will do whatever they can to shut down the run.
Why The Chargers Could Cover The Spread/Win
The biggest news that we are awaiting is the health of Justin Herbert. Clearly, the Chargers offense is much better when he plays. The offense failed to move the ball against the Steelers when he exited. The focus will remain to pound the rock, however, Herbert is one of the top QBs in the league for a reason. He can hit any receiver on the numbers, he just has had a hard time staying healthy. The offensive line has been banged up also, which is a recipe for disaster.
Left tackle Rashawn Slater and rookie right tackle Joe Alt are both hurt and likely to miss the game. That is a huge blow to the offense. There is a chance the team is without those two, backup tackle Trey Pipkins, and Herbert. If that is the case, then Taylor Heinecke will take over and hope to play the game of his life to try and upset the Chiefs.
JK Dobbins has been the man offensively for the Chargers. Dobbins is third in the league in rushing with 310 yards and two scores. Second-year receiver Quentin Johnston is proving just about everyone wrong outside of himself with three touchdowns on the season. Between him and rookie receiver Ladd McConkey, the Bolts have a promising duo for the future.
The Bolts' defense has a difficult task trying to defend Mahomes and co. Rashee Rice is turning into a star with 288 yards and two TDs so far. They must contain him.
Final Chiefs-Chargers Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting divisional battle but it all depends on the health of Herbert. His ankle is in pain and the Bolts could sit him. Either way, I expect the Chiefs are capable of winning this game by a touchdown. Take the Chiefs to cover to improve to 4-0 on the year.
Final Chiefs-Chargers Prediction & Pick: Chiefs -7 (-118)
