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The Duke Blue Devils are set to face the Clemson Tigers. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Duke Clemson prediction, odds, and pick.
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Duke is coming off a home-court loss to Virginia. The Blue Devils led by two points in the final 10 seconds and allowed a winning 3-pointer. Virginia used an old and familiar play, in which the inbounder of the ball flashed out to the wing from the baseline and got a wide-open look. College basketball odds analysts couldn't avoid noticing that Duke did not stay with the inbounder and made a fundamental defensive mistake. This is the head-scratching kind of sequence we have seen at other times this season from a Duke team which has not realized its potential. The Blue Devils were considered runaway favorites in the ACC by the people who are setting the Duke Clemson odds, but becuase of that loss to Virginia, Notre Dame shockingly leads the ACC heading into Super Bowl weekend.
Duke beat Kentucky and Gonzaga in November but has since failed to pay the same attention to detail it demonstrated in the first few weeks of the season. This team is sloppy and imprecise far too often, as shown by failing to cover the inbounder on Virginia's game-winning shot. If you are thinking about a Duke Clemson pick, it is clear that the Blue Devils have made it easy to distrust them.
The counterbalance here is that Clemson is not worthy of trust, either. Clemson is coming off a home-court loss to a not-very-good North Carolina team. Clemson grabbed an early eight-point lead on its own floor and seemed to have the upper hand over a Carolina squad which has played bad defense most of the season, especially in ACC competition. Yet, Clemson could not defend well down the stretch, and UNC overtook the Tigers.
Clemson under Brad Brownell has had an occasionally good season, but most years of the Brownell era have featured lots of blown leads late in games. This pattern has been in evidence this season, a core part of why the Tigers haven't been able to fulfill their potential. The worst of Clemson's blown leads was a 23-point blown lead at home against Boston College, one of the worst teams in the ACC. When thinking about a Duke Clemson prediction, you have to keep this point squarely in mind.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Duke-Clemson odds:
College Basketball odds: Duke-Clemson Odds
Duke: -6.5 (-110)
Clemson: +6.5 (-110)
Over: 142 (-110)
Under: 142 (-110)
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Why Duke Could Cover the Spread
The Clemson Tigers couldn't beat North Carolina at home, so why would they be good enough to beat a Duke team which is far more talented? Also, Duke is coming off a loss, so that will make the Blue Devils more focused and angry than they otherwise would have been. They won't be complacent, and they won't get caught off guard.
Why Clemson Could Cover the Spread
The Tigers almost beat Duke on the road in January. At home, they could certainly make up the difference against an opponent which has shown that it is not ruthlessly and reliably consistent. Clemson doesn't even have to win, either. It could lose by six at home and still cover? That's pretty realistic.
Final Duke-Clemson Prediction & Pick
Duke is not a trustworthy team, but neither is Clemson, and since Duke is mad after letting the Virginia game slip away, the Blue Devils should be able to take control here.
Final Duke-Clemson Pick: Duke -6.5
