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The Central Michigan Chippewas (1-2) visit the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) in a non-conference matchup Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. We continue our College Football odds series with a Central Michigan-Penn State prediction and pick.
Central Michigan sits at just 1-2 heading into their matchup with Penn State. The Chippewas suffered a pair of 10-point losses in the first two weeks of the season but turned things around last week. Central Michigan shutout Bucknell 41-0 in the victory.
Penn State is undefeated thus far and is one of a handful of teams 3-0 against the spread in 2022. After a narrow victory at Purdue to start the year, the Nittany Lions claimed two decisive victories over Ohio and Auburn.
Here are the Central Michigan-Penn State College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Central Michigan-Penn State Odds
Central Michigan Chippewas: +27.5 (+100)
Penn State Nittany Lions: -27.5 (-122)
Over: 62.5 (-115)
Under: 62.5 (-105)
Why Central Michigan Could Cover The Spread
Despite their 1-2 record, Central Michigan has already proved capable of late covers against superior opponents. In their loss to 58-44 loss to Oklahoma State, the Chippewas rallied to erase a 29-point halftime deficit. Central Michigan put up 22 points in the fourth quarter to cover a 22-point line. Garbage time could be key again this week.
Central Michigan's offense is formidable as the Chippewas average 36 points per game. The underdogs put up close to 500 yards of total offense a game.
Sophomore quarterback Daniel Richardson has been explosive this season. After finishing last year with a 24-6 TD:INT ratio, Richardson opened 2022 with a 424-yard, 4 touchdown performance against Oklahoma State. Although his numbers have dipped in the two games since Richardson has shown the ability to put up counting stats.
Richardson relies on a trio of pass catchers including tight end Joel Wilson and Jalen McGaughy. McGaughy was especially explosive in their cover against Oklahoma State – catching 6 balls for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns.
While Central Michigan attempts to be a balanced offense, the run game has struggled in 2022. Workhorse running back Lew Nichols III averages just 3.6 yards per carry – inflated by a 166-yard performance against lowly Bucknell last week. The effectiveness of the CMU run game is a major factor in making a Central Michigan-Penn State prediction.
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As for the defense, Central Michigan was torched in their lone game against a top 25 opponent. Oklahoma State scored 44 first-half points in week one before calling the dogs off in the second half. They're coming off a shutout performance but struggle to contain opposing passers and have forced just 3 turnovers this season.
Why Penn State Could Cover The Spread
Penn State has covered every game this season, including an impressive 41-12 victory last week over Auburn. The visiting Nittany Lions were favored by just 2.5 points in the victory, easily covering the field goal line.
With the return of quarterback Sean Clifford, it was expected the senior quarterback would be the focal point of the Nittany Lion offense this year. Clifford has been competent this year – throwing for 673 yards with a 64% completion percentage through three weeks.
Penn State's passing game has incredibly spread out in 2022. 17 players have recorded a reception for the Nittany Lions this year – with four having over 100 yards. Senior wideout Mitchell Tinsley leads the team in receptions with 13, while junior tight end Brenton Strange has racked up 169 yards to a clip of 18.8 yards per catch. It has been the running game, however, which has been particularly effective this year.
In last week's beatdown of Auburn, Penn State's pair of freshman running backs combined for 176 yards and 4 touchdowns. Nicholas Singleton led the way for the Nittany Lions, running for 124 yards himself. This was Singleton's second consecutive game with over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. For the season, Penn State is averaging just under 200 yards rushing a game.
Defensively, Penn State has responded well to a poor showing in their opening week victory over Purdue. In their week two win over Ohio, the Nittany Lion defense gave up just 264 yards of offense. While SEC foe Auburn was able to eclipse the 400-yard mark last week, Penn State's playmakers forced four turnovers which largely decided the game.
Safety Ji'ayir Brown leads the team in tackles with 15. The senior has proven to be a playmaker in the secondary as well, racking up an interception, recording a sack, and forcing a fumble. The playmakers on defense for the Nittany Lions are worth taking into consideration when making a Central Michigan-Penn State prediction.
Final Central Michigan-Penn State Prediction & Pick
Penn State has covered every game they've played this year and I don't expect that to change this week. Although Central Michigan has some garbage time cover potential, expect the Nittany Lions' defense to blanket the Chippewas.
Final Central Michigan-Penn State Prediction & Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions -27.5 (-122)
