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The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UCF Knights. Check out our college football odds series for our Cincinnati UCF prediction and pick.
The Cincinnati Bearcats aren't going to make the College Football Playoff this season, but they can still win the Group of Five and return to a New Year's Six bowl for the second consecutive year. That NY6 bowl would be the Cotton Bowl. Last season, they met Alabama in the Cotton Bowl, a playoff semifinal. This year, a Cotton Bowl bid would put them against an at-large team, possibly the Tennessee Volunteers or the UCLA Bruins. If Cincinnati can make the Cotton Bowl, the Bearcats would be enormously pleased. It would show that this program can withstand significant departures to the NFL (Sauce Gardner, Desmond Ridder, and seven other NFL draft picks) and still achieve at a high level.
This is a huge game because Cincinnati has just one loss. If the Bearcats finish the season with only one loss, they will definitely be the Group of Five representative and a Cotton Bowl team. Even if Cincinnati finishes 11-2, the Bearcats might still win the Group of Five. They know that UCF lost last week to East Carolina, which means that they can fully knock UCF out of the Group of Five chase. They also know that Tulane is currently UC's primary contender in the AAC. Cincinnati wants to maintain as much leverage over Tulane as possible.
UCF might have been caught looking ahead last week when it lost to ECU. The Knights know that the Group of Five championship battle is Cincinnati versus Tulane with UCF having an outside chance and needing to run the table to have a real shot. UCF is a typical Gus Malzahn-coached team: lots of ups and downs within a season. The highs — hammering SMU — are great, and the lows (losing at home to Louisville) are humiliating. UCF needs its offense to fire on all cylinders if the Knights want to beat Cincinnati and change the Group of Five equation. Cincinnati is the steadier team, but it's not unreasonable to say that UCF has a higher ceiling when everything is going well.
As always, Gus Malzahn teams have a problem not in terms of being very capable in a few individual games, but in terms of maintaining a consistently good standard over 12 games. That's where Gus's teams usually fall short.
Here are the Cincinnati-UCF NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Cincinnati-UCF Odds
Cincinnati Bearcats: +1.5 (-110)
UCF Knights: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 55.5 (-105)
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Under: 55.5 (-115)
Why Cincinnati Could Cover the Spread
The Bearcats have a sound and reliable defense which can corral the UCF offense. UCF is amazing when everything is going great, but as we have said, Gus Malzahn teams struggle to be consistent over a season. They short-circuit and have a very feast-or-famine identity. Cincinnati and Luke Fickell can outcoach and outmaneuver Gus and the Knights.
Why UCF Could Cover the Spread
Cincinnati isn't that potent on offense. The Bearcats got a working margin against SMU last week but could not build on their lead to put the game away. SMU very nearly forced overtime and made Cincinnati sweat. SMU is not particularly good this year. Cincinnati's lack of high-end offensive weapons will keep UCF in the game and give the Knights a chance to win it late.
Final Cincinnati-UCF Prediction & Pick
Cincinnati's defense will outplay UCF's offense. That's the central matchup in the game. The Bearcats will prevail.
Final Cincinnati-UCF Prediction & Pick: Cincinnati +1.5
